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Canada

Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North


MP: Dan Muys (CPC)

Latest projection: July 6, 2025
CPC leaning

Recent electoral history | Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 51% ± 8% 42.9% 43.8% 52.7% LPC 44% ± 8% 33.6% 32.5% 43.2% NDP 3% ± 2% 14.3% 14.6% 2.4% GPC 1% ± 1% 7.4% 2.4% 0.9% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.6% 6.5% 0.7%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant-Nord


Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North 51% ± 8%▼ CPC 44% ± 8% LPC 3% ± 2% NDP CPC 2025 52.7% 338Canada vote projection | July 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North 86% CPC 14% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North

LPC 44% ± 8% CPC 51% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 59% LPC 17% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 58% LPC 18% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 58% LPC 18% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 55% LPC 22% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 53% LPC 24% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 52% LPC 27% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 51% LPC 29% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 51% LPC 30% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 52% LPC 29% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 51% LPC 31% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 50% LPC 34% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 49% LPC 34% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 49% LPC 34% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 49% LPC 34% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 49% LPC 34% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 49% LPC 34% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 49% LPC 37% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 49% LPC 37% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 48% LPC 37% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 48% LPC 38% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 48% LPC 38% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 49% LPC 38% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 50% LPC 38% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 50% LPC 39% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 49% LPC 40% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 49% LPC 40% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 49% LPC 41% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 49% LPC 41% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 49% LPC 40% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 49% LPC 41% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 49% LPC 41% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 49% LPC 41% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 49% LPC 41% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 49% LPC 41% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 49% LPC 41% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 49% LPC 41% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 49% LPC 41% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 49% LPC 40% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 49% LPC 40% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 48% LPC 41% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 48% LPC 41% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 49% LPC 41% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 49% LPC 41% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 49% LPC 41% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 49% LPC 41% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 50% LPC 41% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 53% LPC 43% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 53% LPC 43% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 53% LPC 43% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 53% LPC 43% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 53% LPC 43% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 52% LPC 43% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 52% LPC 44% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 51% LPC 44% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 52% LPC 44% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 51% LPC 44% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North

LPC 14% CPC 86% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader