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Canada


Guelph (federal)


MP: Lloyd Longfield (LPC)


Latest projection: November 26, 2023

CPC leaning gain
Guelph 30% ± 6% 27% ± 6% 22% ± 5% 17% ± 5%▼ 3% ± 2% LPC 2021 42.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 26, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Guelph 74% 25% 1% Odds of winning | November 26, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Guelph

LPC 27% ± 6% CPC 30% ± 6% NDP 22% ± 5% GPC 17% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Guelph 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Guelph

LPC 25% CPC 74% NDP 1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Guelph



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 49.1% 40.4% 42.1% 27% ± 6% CPC 26.3% 19.3% 24.07% 30% ± 6% NDP 12.0% 12.3% 21.09% 22% ± 5% GPC 11.3% 25.5% 7.52% 17% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 1.4% 4.56% 3% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0% ± 0%