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Canada

Hamilton Centre


MP elect: Aslam Rana (LPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
LPC likely

Candidates | Hamilton Centre


Liberal Aslam Rana
Conservative Hayden Lawrence
NDP Matthew Green*
Green Sandy Crawley
PPC David Speicher
Rhinoceros Cody Chenier
No Affiliation Carla Green

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Hamilton Centre 37% ± 0%▲ LPC 30% ± 0%▲ CPC 29% ± 0%▼ NDP LPC 2025 37.5% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hamilton Centre 97%▲ LPC 2%▲ CPC 1%▼ NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Hamilton Centre

LPC 37% ± 0% CPC 30% ± 0% NDP 29% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Hamilton Centre 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 NDP 37% LPC 29% CPC 24% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 38% LPC 30% CPC 23% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 NDP 35% LPC 33% CPC 23% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 NDP 36% LPC 33% CPC 22% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 NDP 36% LPC 33% CPC 22% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 NDP 36% LPC 33% CPC 22% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 NDP 36% LPC 33% CPC 22% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 NDP 36% LPC 33% CPC 22% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 NDP 36% LPC 34% CPC 22% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 NDP 35% LPC 34% CPC 23% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 NDP 35% LPC 35% CPC 22% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 35% NDP 35% CPC 22% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 36% NDP 34% CPC 23% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 36% NDP 34% CPC 23% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 36% NDP 34% CPC 23% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 37% NDP 35% CPC 21% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 37% NDP 36% CPC 21% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 37% NDP 36% CPC 21% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 NDP 37% LPC 37% CPC 20% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 37% NDP 37% CPC 20% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 NDP 37% LPC 37% CPC 20% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 NDP 37% LPC 37% CPC 21% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 37% NDP 37% CPC 21% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 37% NDP 37% CPC 20% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 NDP 37% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 NDP 38% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 NDP 38% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 NDP 37% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 NDP 37% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 NDP 38% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 NDP 38% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 NDP 37% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 NDP 37% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 NDP 37% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 NDP 37% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 NDP 37% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 NDP 37% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 NDP 37% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 NDP 37% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 NDP 39% LPC 34% CPC 20% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 NDP 39% LPC 34% CPC 20% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 NDP 39% LPC 34% CPC 20% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 NDP 38% LPC 35% CPC 21% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 37% CPC 30% NDP 29% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Hamilton Centre

LPC 97% CPC 2% NDP 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 NDP 92% LPC 8% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 91% LPC 9% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 NDP 67% LPC 32% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 NDP 74% LPC 26% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 NDP 73% LPC 27% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 NDP 73% LPC 27% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 NDP 72% LPC 28% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 NDP 72% LPC 28% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 NDP 61% LPC 38% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 NDP 59% LPC 41% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 NDP 52% LPC 48% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 53% NDP 47% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 60% NDP 40% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 62% NDP 38% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 64% NDP 35% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 63% NDP 37% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 60% NDP 40% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 55% NDP 45% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 NDP 53% LPC 47% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 52% NDP 48% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 NDP 52% LPC 48% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 NDP 51% LPC 49% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 51% NDP 49% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 51% NDP 49% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 NDP 55% LPC 45% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 NDP 63% LPC 37% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 NDP 58% LPC 42% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 NDP 54% LPC 46% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 NDP 57% LPC 43% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 NDP 57% LPC 43% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 NDP 58% LPC 42% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 NDP 59% LPC 41% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 NDP 59% LPC 41% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 NDP 56% LPC 44% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 NDP 52% LPC 48% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 NDP 52% LPC 48% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 NDP 57% LPC 43% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 NDP 55% LPC 45% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 NDP 60% LPC 40% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 NDP 75% LPC 25% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 NDP 78% LPC 22% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 NDP 76% LPC 24% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 NDP 69% LPC 31% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 97% CPC 2% NDP 1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Hamilton Centre



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 37% ± 0% 28.7% 26.7% 37.5% CPC 30% ± 0% 15.6% 16.5% 30.1% NDP 29% ± 0% 45.0% 47.0% 29.1% GPC 1% ± 0% 7.6% 2.7% 1.4% PPC 1% ± 0% 2.0% 6.6% 1.0% IND 1% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.