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Hamilton Centre



Latest projection: November 17, 2024
NDP safe
Hamilton Centre 47% ± 8% NDP 25% ± 6%▼ CPC 17% ± 5% LPC 6% ± 4% GPC 4% ± 4% PPC NDP 2021 47.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hamilton Centre >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC Odds of winning | November 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Hamilton Centre

LPC 17% ± 5% CPC 25% ± 6% NDP 47% ± 8% GPC 6% ± 4% PPC 4% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Hamilton Centre 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 NDP 50% CPC 24% LPC 17% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 NDP 50% CPC 24% LPC 17% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 NDP 49% CPC 24% LPC 18% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 NDP 50% CPC 24% LPC 17% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 NDP 49% CPC 24% LPC 18% GPC 6% PPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 NDP 50% CPC 23% LPC 17% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 51% CPC 23% LPC 17% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 NDP 49% CPC 24% LPC 17% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 NDP 49% CPC 24% LPC 17% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 NDP 48% CPC 24% LPC 17% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 NDP 48% CPC 24% LPC 17% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 NDP 48% CPC 24% LPC 17% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 NDP 50% CPC 24% LPC 16% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 NDP 49% CPC 24% LPC 16% GPC 5% PPC 4% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 NDP 49% CPC 23% LPC 17% GPC 5% PPC 4% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 NDP 48% CPC 23% LPC 18% GPC 5% PPC 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 NDP 47% CPC 24% LPC 18% GPC 6% PPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 NDP 47% CPC 25% LPC 17% GPC 6% PPC 4% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 NDP 46% CPC 26% LPC 17% GPC 6% PPC 4% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 NDP 45% CPC 27% LPC 17% GPC 6% PPC 4% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 NDP 45% CPC 27% LPC 17% GPC 6% PPC 3% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 NDP 46% CPC 27% LPC 16% GPC 6% PPC 4% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 NDP 46% CPC 26% LPC 16% GPC 6% PPC 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 NDP 47% CPC 26% LPC 16% GPC 6% PPC 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 NDP 47% CPC 26% LPC 16% GPC 6% PPC 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 NDP 47% CPC 25% LPC 16% GPC 6% PPC 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 NDP 47% CPC 26% LPC 17% GPC 6% PPC 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 NDP 47% CPC 25% LPC 17% GPC 6% PPC 4% 2024-11-17

Odds of winning | Hamilton Centre

LPC <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-11-17

Recent electoral history | Hamilton Centre



2019 2021 Proj. NDP 45.0% 47.0% 47% ± 8% LPC 28.7% 26.7% 17% ± 5% CPC 15.6% 16.5% 25% ± 6% PPC 2.0% 6.6% 4% ± 4% GPC 7.6% 2.7% 6% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.