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Recent electoral history | Hamilton Centre


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 39% ± 7% 28.7% 26.7% 37.4% NDP 29% ± 7% 45.0% 47.0% 29.0% CPC 27% ± 6% 15.6% 16.5% 29.8% PPC 1% ± 2% 2.0% 6.6% 1.0%

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338Canada Hamilton Centre projection

Latest update: March 8, 2026

Hamilton Centre 33% 46% 39% ± 7% LPC 22% 36% 29% ± 7% NDP 21% 32% 27% ± 6% CPC 0% 5% 3% ± 2% GPC LPC 2025 37.4% 338Canada vote projection | March 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hamilton Centre 97%▲ LPC 3%▼ NDP <1% CPC Odds of winning | March 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Hamilton Centre

LPC 39% ± 7% CPC 27% ± 6% NDP 29% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Hamilton Centre 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC IND March 8, 2026 2025-04-26 NDP 39% LPC 34% CPC 20% GPC 3% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 NDP 39% LPC 34% CPC 20% GPC 3% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 NDP 38% LPC 35% CPC 21% GPC 3% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 37% CPC 30% NDP 29% GPC 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 37% CPC 30% NDP 29% GPC 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 37% CPC 30% NDP 29% GPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 38% CPC 30% NDP 29% GPC 1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 38% CPC 30% NDP 29% GPC 1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 38% CPC 30% NDP 29% GPC 1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 38% NDP 30% CPC 29% GPC 1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 38% NDP 31% CPC 29% GPC 1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 37% NDP 32% CPC 28% GPC 1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 36% NDP 33% CPC 28% GPC 2% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 37% NDP 33% CPC 27% GPC 2% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 36% NDP 33% CPC 27% GPC 2% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 36% NDP 34% CPC 27% GPC 2% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 36% NDP 35% CPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 NDP 36% LPC 35% CPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 NDP 36% LPC 35% CPC 25% GPC 2% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 NDP 36% LPC 34% CPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 NDP 37% LPC 34% CPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 NDP 38% LPC 33% CPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 NDP 36% LPC 33% CPC 28% GPC 2% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 34% NDP 34% CPC 28% GPC 2% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 35% NDP 32% CPC 30% GPC 2% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 34% NDP 32% CPC 30% GPC 2% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 35% NDP 32% CPC 30% GPC 2% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 34% NDP 32% CPC 30% GPC 2% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 34% NDP 32% CPC 30% GPC 2% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 34% NDP 33% CPC 29% GPC 2% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 34% NDP 33% CPC 29% GPC 2% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 34% NDP 33% CPC 29% GPC 2% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 34% NDP 34% CPC 29% GPC 2% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 34% NDP 34% CPC 29% GPC 2% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 35% NDP 34% CPC 28% GPC 2% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 35% NDP 33% CPC 28% GPC 2% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 NDP 34% LPC 34% CPC 28% GPC 2% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 NDP 35% LPC 32% CPC 27% GPC 3% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 NDP 35% LPC 32% CPC 27% GPC 3% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 NDP 36% LPC 32% CPC 27% GPC 3% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 NDP 35% LPC 32% CPC 27% GPC 3% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 NDP 35% LPC 33% CPC 27% GPC 3% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC 37% NDP 30% CPC 27% GPC 3% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC 38% NDP 29% CPC 28% GPC 3% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 LPC 39% NDP 29% CPC 27% GPC 3% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 LPC 38% NDP 29% CPC 28% GPC 3% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 LPC 39% NDP 29% CPC 27% GPC 3% 2026-03-01 2026-03-08 LPC 39% NDP 29% CPC 27% GPC 3% 2026-03-08

Odds of winning | Hamilton Centre

LPC 97% CPC <1% NDP 3% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP March 8, 2026 2025-04-26 NDP 78% LPC 22% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 NDP 76% LPC 24% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 NDP 69% LPC 31% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 97% CPC 2% NDP 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 97% CPC 2% NDP 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 95% CPC 3% NDP 2% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 94% CPC 4% NDP 2% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 87% CPC 7% NDP 6% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 87% NDP 6% CPC 6% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 86% NDP 9% CPC 5% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 86% NDP 11% CPC 3% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 79% NDP 18% CPC 3% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 71% NDP 26% CPC 3% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 71% NDP 27% CPC 1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 69% NDP 30% CPC 1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 61% NDP 37% CPC 1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 56% NDP 44% CPC 1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 NDP 53% LPC 46% CPC <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 NDP 53% LPC 47% CPC <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 NDP 62% LPC 37% CPC 1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 NDP 66% LPC 33% CPC <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 NDP 78% LPC 21% CPC <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 NDP 66% LPC 30% CPC 4% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 48% NDP 48% CPC 4% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 61% NDP 28% CPC 11% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 58% NDP 30% CPC 12% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 60% NDP 31% CPC 9% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 58% NDP 32% CPC 10% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 59% NDP 32% CPC 9% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 58% NDP 35% CPC 7% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 57% NDP 38% CPC 5% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 53% NDP 42% CPC 5% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 NDP 47% LPC 47% CPC 6% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 47% NDP 46% CPC 7% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 52% NDP 45% CPC 3% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 56% NDP 40% CPC 4% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 NDP 51% LPC 46% CPC 3% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 NDP 69% LPC 29% CPC 3% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 NDP 69% LPC 28% CPC 3% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 NDP 73% LPC 24% CPC 3% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 NDP 74% LPC 24% CPC 3% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 NDP 64% LPC 34% CPC 2% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC 88% NDP 11% CPC 1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC 93% NDP 5% CPC 2% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 LPC 97% NDP 2% CPC <1% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 LPC 96% NDP 3% CPC 1% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 LPC 96% NDP 4% CPC <1% 2026-03-01 2026-03-08 LPC 97% NDP 3% CPC <1% 2026-03-08


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Demographic data | Hamilton Centre

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 87.9% English 1.4% Arabic 1.3% Spanish 1.1% Portuguese 0.8% Vietnamese 0.6% Mandarin 0.6% SomaliHamilton CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 15.4% No diploma 26.4% High school 5.3% Trade 22.6% College / Cégep 1.9% Some university 18.0% Bachelor's 10.4% PostgraduateHamilton CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 75.7% Not visible minority 24.3% Visible minority 7.4% Black 3.8% South Asian 2.4% Latin American 2.2% Southeast Asian 2.0% Filipino 1.8% ChineseHamilton CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 44.5% No Religion 22.5% Catholic 7.5% Christian (n.o.s.) 5.5% Muslim 3.7% Anglican 2.2% United Church 2.1% Other Christian 1.8% HinduHamilton CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 55.7% Renter 44.3% OwnerHamilton CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 53.2% Employed 38.3% Not in labour force 8.6% UnemployedHamilton CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 95.8% Non-Indigenous 4.2% Indigenous identity 3.1% First Nations 0.9% Metis 0.1% Others 0.1% MultipleHamilton CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 72.8% Car / truck / van 15.0% Public transit 8.6% Walking 2.2% Other 1.5% BicycleHamilton CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.