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Hamilton Centre


MP: Aslam Rana (LPC)

Latest projection: July 6, 2025
LPC leaning

Recent electoral history | Hamilton Centre


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 36% ± 8% 28.7% 26.7% 37.6% NDP 33% ± 8% 45.0% 47.0% 29.1% CPC 28% ± 7% 15.6% 16.5% 30.0% GPC 2% ± 2% 7.6% 2.7% 1.4% PPC 1% ± 1% 2.0% 6.6% 1.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Hamilton-Centre


Hamilton Centre 36% ± 8%▼ LPC 33% ± 8%▲ NDP 28% ± 7% CPC LPC 2025 37.6% 338Canada vote projection | July 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hamilton Centre 71%▼ LPC 26%▲ NDP 3% CPC Odds of winning | July 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Hamilton Centre

LPC 36% ± 8% CPC 28% ± 7% NDP 33% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Hamilton Centre 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 NDP 50% CPC 27% LPC 14% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 NDP 48% CPC 27% LPC 15% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 NDP 48% CPC 27% LPC 15% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 NDP 46% CPC 25% LPC 19% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 NDP 43% CPC 25% LPC 22% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 NDP 39% LPC 26% CPC 25% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 NDP 37% LPC 28% CPC 25% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 NDP 37% LPC 29% CPC 24% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 NDP 37% LPC 29% CPC 24% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 38% LPC 30% CPC 23% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 NDP 35% LPC 33% CPC 23% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 NDP 36% LPC 33% CPC 22% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 NDP 36% LPC 33% CPC 22% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 NDP 36% LPC 33% CPC 22% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 NDP 36% LPC 33% CPC 22% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 NDP 36% LPC 33% CPC 22% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 NDP 36% LPC 34% CPC 22% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 NDP 35% LPC 34% CPC 23% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 NDP 35% LPC 35% CPC 22% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 35% NDP 35% CPC 22% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 36% NDP 34% CPC 23% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 36% NDP 34% CPC 23% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 36% NDP 34% CPC 23% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 37% NDP 35% CPC 21% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 37% NDP 36% CPC 21% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 37% NDP 36% CPC 21% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 NDP 37% LPC 37% CPC 20% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 37% NDP 37% CPC 20% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 NDP 37% LPC 37% CPC 20% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 NDP 37% LPC 37% CPC 21% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 37% NDP 37% CPC 21% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 37% NDP 37% CPC 20% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 NDP 37% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 NDP 38% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 NDP 38% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 NDP 37% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 NDP 37% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 NDP 38% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 NDP 38% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 NDP 37% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 NDP 37% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 NDP 37% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 NDP 37% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 NDP 37% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 NDP 37% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 NDP 37% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 NDP 37% LPC 36% CPC 20% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 NDP 39% LPC 34% CPC 20% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 NDP 39% LPC 34% CPC 20% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 NDP 39% LPC 34% CPC 20% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 NDP 38% LPC 35% CPC 21% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 37% CPC 30% NDP 29% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 37% CPC 30% NDP 29% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 37% CPC 30% NDP 29% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 38% CPC 30% NDP 29% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 38% CPC 30% NDP 29% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 38% CPC 30% NDP 29% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 38% NDP 30% CPC 29% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 38% NDP 31% CPC 29% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 37% NDP 32% CPC 28% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 36% NDP 33% CPC 28% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Hamilton Centre

LPC 71% CPC 3% NDP 26% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 NDP 99% LPC 1% CPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 NDP 93% LPC 6% CPC 1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 NDP 89% LPC 10% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 NDP 92% LPC 8% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 91% LPC 9% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 NDP 67% LPC 32% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 NDP 74% LPC 26% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 NDP 73% LPC 27% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 NDP 73% LPC 27% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 NDP 72% LPC 28% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 NDP 72% LPC 28% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 NDP 61% LPC 38% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 NDP 59% LPC 41% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 NDP 52% LPC 48% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 53% NDP 47% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 60% NDP 40% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 62% NDP 38% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 64% NDP 35% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 63% NDP 37% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 60% NDP 40% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 55% NDP 45% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 NDP 53% LPC 47% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 52% NDP 48% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 NDP 52% LPC 48% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 NDP 51% LPC 49% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 51% NDP 49% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 51% NDP 49% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 NDP 55% LPC 45% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 NDP 63% LPC 37% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 NDP 58% LPC 42% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 NDP 54% LPC 46% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 NDP 57% LPC 43% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 NDP 57% LPC 43% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 NDP 58% LPC 42% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 NDP 59% LPC 41% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 NDP 59% LPC 41% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 NDP 56% LPC 44% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 NDP 52% LPC 48% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 NDP 52% LPC 48% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 NDP 57% LPC 43% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 NDP 55% LPC 45% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 NDP 60% LPC 40% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 NDP 75% LPC 25% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 NDP 78% LPC 22% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 NDP 76% LPC 24% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 NDP 69% LPC 31% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 97% CPC 2% NDP 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 97% CPC 2% NDP 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 95% CPC 3% NDP 2% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 94% CPC 4% NDP 2% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 87% CPC 7% NDP 6% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 87% NDP 6% CPC 6% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 86% NDP 9% CPC 5% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 86% NDP 11% CPC 3% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 79% NDP 18% CPC 3% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 71% NDP 26% CPC 3% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader