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Canada


Souris–Moose Mountain (federal)


MP: Robert Kitchen (CPC)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

CPC safe hold
Souris–Moose Mountain 82% ± 6% 9% ± 4% 3% ± 2% IND CPC 2021 76.26% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Souris–Moose Mountain >99% <1% <1% INDOdds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Souris–Moose Mountain

CPC 82% ± 6% NDP 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Souris–Moose Mountain 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 CPC NDP

Odds of winning | Souris–Moose Mountain

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Souris–Moose Mountain



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 70.1% 84.4% 76.26% 82% ± 6% PPC 0.0% 1.7% 9.08% 2% ± 2% NDP 13.7% 7.7% 7.97% 9% ± 4% LPC 13.5% 4.1% 4.2% 2% ± 2% GPC 2.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0% ± 1% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3% ± 2% MAV 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2%