logo
Canada

Courtenay—Alberni



Latest projection: April 16, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | Courtenay—Alberni


Liberal Brian Cameron
Conservative Kris McNichol
NDP Gord Johns*
Green Chris Markevich
PPC Thomas Gamble
Christian Heritage Jesse Musial
Animal Protection Teresa Knight

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Courtenay—Alberni 45% ± 8%▲ CPC 32% ± 8%▼ NDP 15% ± 5% LPC 4% ± 4% GPC NDP 2021 42.9% 338Canada vote projection | April 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Courtenay—Alberni 98%▲ CPC 2%▼ NDP <1% LPC Odds of winning | April 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Courtenay—Alberni

LPC 15% ± 5% CPC 45% ± 8% NDP 32% ± 8% GPC 4% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Courtenay—Alberni 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP GPC April 16, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 41% NDP 33% LPC 16% GPC 7% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 41% NDP 32% LPC 17% GPC 7% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 42% NDP 27% LPC 22% GPC 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 42% NDP 27% LPC 22% GPC 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 41% NDP 27% LPC 22% GPC 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 42% NDP 27% LPC 22% GPC 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 42% NDP 27% LPC 23% GPC 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 42% NDP 27% LPC 23% GPC 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 41% NDP 27% LPC 24% GPC 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 41% NDP 27% LPC 24% GPC 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 41% NDP 27% LPC 24% GPC 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 46% NDP 31% LPC 15% GPC 7% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 46% NDP 31% LPC 15% GPC 7% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 45% NDP 31% LPC 15% GPC 7% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 46% NDP 31% LPC 15% GPC 7% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 45% NDP 32% LPC 15% GPC 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 43% NDP 35% LPC 16% GPC 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 43% NDP 35% LPC 16% GPC 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 43% NDP 35% LPC 16% GPC 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 43% NDP 35% LPC 16% GPC 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 44% NDP 34% LPC 16% GPC 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 44% NDP 34% LPC 16% GPC 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 45% NDP 33% LPC 16% GPC 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 46% NDP 32% LPC 15% GPC 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 45% NDP 32% LPC 15% GPC 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 45% NDP 32% LPC 15% GPC 4% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 44% NDP 32% LPC 15% GPC 4% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 44% NDP 32% LPC 15% GPC 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 44% NDP 33% LPC 15% GPC 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 44% NDP 33% LPC 15% GPC 4% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 45% NDP 32% LPC 15% GPC 4% 2025-04-16 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Courtenay—Alberni

LPC <1% CPC 98% NDP 2% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 16, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 92% NDP 8% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 95% NDP 5% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 91% NDP 9% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 91% NDP 9% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 91% NDP 9% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 92% NDP 8% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 93% NDP 7% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 96% NDP 4% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Courtenay—Alberni



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 32.2% 31.3% 45% ± 8% NDP 39.8% 42.9% 32% ± 8% LPC 12.0% 13.6% 15% ± 5% GPC 15.6% 7.0% 4% ± 4% PPC 0.1% 5.0% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.