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Canada

Courtenay—Alberni


MP elect: Gord Johns (NDP)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
NDP likely

Candidates | Courtenay—Alberni


Liberal Brian Cameron
Conservative Kris McNichol
NDP Gord Johns*
Green Chris Markevich
PPC Thomas Gamble
Christian Heritage Jesse Musial
Animal Protection Teresa Knight

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Courtenay—Alberni 40% ± 0%▲ NDP 35% ± 0%▼ CPC 23% ± 0%▲ LPC NDP 2025 39.6% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Courtenay—Alberni 94%▲ NDP 6%▼ CPC <1% LPC Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Courtenay—Alberni

LPC 23% ± 0% CPC 35% ± 0% NDP 40% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Courtenay—Alberni 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 41% NDP 33% LPC 16% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 41% NDP 32% LPC 17% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 42% NDP 27% LPC 22% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 42% NDP 27% LPC 22% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 41% NDP 27% LPC 22% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 42% NDP 27% LPC 22% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 42% NDP 27% LPC 23% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 42% NDP 27% LPC 23% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 41% NDP 27% LPC 24% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 41% NDP 27% LPC 24% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 41% NDP 27% LPC 24% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 46% NDP 31% LPC 15% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 46% NDP 31% LPC 15% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 45% NDP 31% LPC 15% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 46% NDP 31% LPC 15% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 45% NDP 32% LPC 15% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 43% NDP 35% LPC 16% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 43% NDP 35% LPC 16% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 43% NDP 35% LPC 16% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 43% NDP 35% LPC 16% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 44% NDP 34% LPC 16% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 44% NDP 34% LPC 16% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 45% NDP 33% LPC 16% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 46% NDP 32% LPC 15% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 45% NDP 32% LPC 15% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 45% NDP 32% LPC 15% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 44% NDP 32% LPC 15% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 44% NDP 32% LPC 15% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 44% NDP 33% LPC 15% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 44% NDP 33% LPC 15% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 45% NDP 32% LPC 15% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 45% NDP 32% LPC 15% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 44% NDP 33% LPC 15% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 44% NDP 32% LPC 15% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 45% NDP 32% LPC 15% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 46% NDP 33% LPC 13% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 46% NDP 33% LPC 13% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 46% NDP 32% LPC 14% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 47% NDP 32% LPC 14% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 47% NDP 31% LPC 14% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 47% NDP 31% LPC 14% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 48% NDP 30% LPC 14% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 47% NDP 30% LPC 15% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 NDP 40% CPC 35% LPC 23% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Courtenay—Alberni

LPC <1% CPC 6% NDP 94% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 92% NDP 8% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 95% NDP 5% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 91% NDP 9% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 91% NDP 9% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 91% NDP 9% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 92% NDP 8% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 93% NDP 7% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 96% NDP 4% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 NDP 94% CPC 6% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Courtenay—Alberni



2019 2021 2025 Proj. NDP 40% ± 0% 39.8% 42.9% 39.6% CPC 35% ± 0% 32.2% 31.3% 34.6% LPC 23% ± 0% 12.0% 13.6% 22.8% GPC 2% ± 0% 15.6% 7.0% 2.2% PPC 1% ± 0% 0.1% 5.0% 0.5% IND 0% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.