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Canada

Courtenay—Alberni



Latest projection: December 29, 2024
Toss up CPC/NDP
Courtenay—Alberni 43% ± 7% CPC 40% ± 7% NDP 7% ± 4% GPC 7% ± 3% LPC NDP 2021 42.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 29, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Courtenay—Alberni 69%▼ CPC 31%▲ NDP <1% GPC Odds of winning | December 29, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Courtenay—Alberni

LPC 7% ± 3% CPC 43% ± 7% NDP 40% ± 7% GPC 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Courtenay—Alberni 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 29, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 48% NDP 33% GPC 8% LPC 8% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 48% NDP 34% GPC 9% LPC 8% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 47% NDP 34% GPC 8% LPC 8% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 46% NDP 35% GPC 8% LPC 8% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 45% NDP 35% LPC 8% GPC 8% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 45% NDP 35% LPC 9% GPC 8% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 44% NDP 37% LPC 8% GPC 8% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 43% NDP 37% LPC 8% GPC 8% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 43% NDP 36% LPC 8% GPC 8% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 43% NDP 37% LPC 8% GPC 8% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 43% NDP 37% LPC 8% GPC 8% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 43% NDP 37% LPC 8% GPC 8% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 42% NDP 37% LPC 9% GPC 8% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 43% NDP 37% LPC 8% GPC 8% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 42% NDP 37% LPC 8% GPC 8% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 43% NDP 37% LPC 9% GPC 8% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 44% NDP 35% LPC 9% GPC 8% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 44% NDP 35% LPC 9% GPC 8% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 44% NDP 35% LPC 9% GPC 8% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 43% NDP 35% LPC 9% GPC 8% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 43% NDP 36% LPC 9% GPC 8% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 44% NDP 37% LPC 8% GPC 8% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 43% NDP 37% LPC 8% GPC 8% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 42% NDP 38% LPC 9% GPC 8% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 42% NDP 38% LPC 9% GPC 8% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 42% NDP 38% LPC 9% GPC 8% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 43% NDP 37% LPC 9% GPC 8% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 43% NDP 36% LPC 9% GPC 8% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 44% NDP 36% LPC 9% GPC 8% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 44% NDP 36% LPC 8% GPC 8% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 44% NDP 37% LPC 8% GPC 8% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 43% NDP 38% GPC 8% LPC 8% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 43% NDP 40% GPC 7% LPC 7% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 43% NDP 40% GPC 7% LPC 7% 2024-12-29

Odds of winning | Courtenay—Alberni

LPC <1% CPC 69% NDP 31% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 29, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 96% NDP 4% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 96% NDP 4% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 90% NDP 10% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 86% NDP 14% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 87% NDP 13% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 85% NDP 15% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 86% NDP 14% LPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 85% NDP 15% LPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 81% NDP 19% LPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 85% NDP 15% LPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 80% NDP 20% LPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 85% NDP 15% LPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 96% NDP 4% LPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 95% NDP 5% LPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 94% NDP 6% LPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 92% NDP 8% LPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 89% NDP 11% LPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 88% NDP 12% LPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 83% NDP 17% LPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 78% NDP 22% LPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 73% NDP 27% LPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 78% NDP 22% LPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 87% NDP 13% LPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 90% NDP 10% LPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 91% NDP 9% LPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 92% NDP 8% LPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 86% NDP 14% LPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 83% NDP 17% LPC <1% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 71% NDP 29% LPC <1% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 69% NDP 31% LPC <1% 2024-12-29

Recent electoral history | Courtenay—Alberni



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 32.2% 31.3% 43% ± 7% NDP 39.8% 42.9% 40% ± 7% GPC 15.6% 7.0% 7% ± 4% LPC 12.0% 13.6% 7% ± 3% PPC 0.1% 5.0% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.