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Canada

Courtenay—Alberni


MP: Gord Johns (NDP)

Latest projection: June 1, 2025
NDP leaning

Recent electoral history | Courtenay—Alberni


2019 2021 2025 Proj. NDP 40% ± 8% 39.8% 42.9% 39.6% CPC 35% ± 7% 32.2% 31.3% 35.1% LPC 23% ± 6% 12.0% 13.6% 22.7% GPC 2% ± 2% 15.6% 7.0% 1.7% PPC 1% ± 1% 0.1% 5.0% 0.5%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.



Courtenay—Alberni 40% ± 8% NDP 35% ± 7% CPC 23% ± 6% LPC NDP 2025 39.6% 338Canada vote projection | June 1, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Courtenay—Alberni 76%▼ NDP 24%▲ CPC <1% LPC Odds of winning | June 1, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Courtenay—Alberni

LPC 23% ± 6% CPC 35% ± 7% NDP 40% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Courtenay—Alberni 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 46% NDP 37% LPC 8% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 47% NDP 35% LPC 8% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 47% NDP 35% LPC 8% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 46% NDP 35% LPC 9% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 46% NDP 34% LPC 11% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 44% NDP 33% LPC 13% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 44% NDP 31% LPC 14% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 41% NDP 33% LPC 16% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 41% NDP 33% LPC 16% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 41% NDP 32% LPC 17% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 42% NDP 27% LPC 22% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 42% NDP 27% LPC 22% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 41% NDP 27% LPC 22% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 42% NDP 27% LPC 22% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 42% NDP 27% LPC 23% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 42% NDP 27% LPC 23% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 41% NDP 27% LPC 24% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 41% NDP 27% LPC 24% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 41% NDP 27% LPC 24% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 46% NDP 31% LPC 15% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 46% NDP 31% LPC 15% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 45% NDP 31% LPC 15% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 46% NDP 31% LPC 15% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 45% NDP 32% LPC 15% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 43% NDP 35% LPC 16% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 43% NDP 35% LPC 16% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 43% NDP 35% LPC 16% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 43% NDP 35% LPC 16% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 44% NDP 34% LPC 16% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 44% NDP 34% LPC 16% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 45% NDP 33% LPC 16% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 46% NDP 32% LPC 15% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 45% NDP 32% LPC 15% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 45% NDP 32% LPC 15% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 44% NDP 32% LPC 15% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 44% NDP 32% LPC 15% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 44% NDP 33% LPC 15% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 44% NDP 33% LPC 15% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 45% NDP 32% LPC 15% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 45% NDP 32% LPC 15% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 44% NDP 33% LPC 15% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 44% NDP 32% LPC 15% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 45% NDP 32% LPC 15% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 46% NDP 33% LPC 13% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 46% NDP 33% LPC 13% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 46% NDP 32% LPC 14% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 47% NDP 32% LPC 14% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 47% NDP 31% LPC 14% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 47% NDP 31% LPC 14% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 48% NDP 30% LPC 14% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 47% NDP 30% LPC 15% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 NDP 40% CPC 35% LPC 23% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 NDP 40% CPC 35% LPC 23% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 NDP 40% CPC 35% LPC 23% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 NDP 40% CPC 35% LPC 23% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 NDP 40% CPC 35% LPC 23% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Courtenay—Alberni

LPC <1% CPC 24% NDP 76% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 93% NDP 7% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 96% NDP 4% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 96% NDP 4% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 96% NDP 4% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 92% NDP 8% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 92% NDP 8% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 95% NDP 5% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 91% NDP 9% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 91% NDP 9% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 91% NDP 9% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 92% NDP 8% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 93% NDP 7% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 96% NDP 4% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 NDP 94% CPC 6% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 NDP 94% CPC 6% LPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 NDP 91% CPC 9% LPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 NDP 85% CPC 15% LPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 NDP 76% CPC 24% LPC <1% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader