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Canada

Chatham-Kent—Leamington


MP elect: Dave Epp (CPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Chatham-Kent—Leamington


Liberal Keith Pickard
Conservative Dave Epp*
NDP Seamus Fleming
Green James Plunkett
PPC Trevor Lee

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Chatham-Kent—Leamington 58% ± 6% CPC 36% ± 6% LPC 4% ± 2% NDP CPC 2025 57.5% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Chatham-Kent—Leamington >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Chatham-Kent—Leamington

LPC 36% ± 6% CPC 58% ± 6% NDP 4% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Chatham-Kent—Leamington 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 58% NDP 17% LPC 14% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 58% NDP 16% LPC 15% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 58% NDP 16% LPC 15% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 55% LPC 18% NDP 15% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 54% LPC 21% NDP 14% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 53% LPC 23% NDP 12% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 52% LPC 25% NDP 12% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 51% LPC 27% NDP 11% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 52% LPC 26% NDP 12% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 51% LPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 49% LPC 31% NDP 10% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 49% LPC 31% NDP 10% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 49% LPC 31% NDP 10% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 49% LPC 31% NDP 10% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 49% LPC 31% NDP 10% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 49% LPC 31% NDP 10% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 49% LPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 49% LPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 49% LPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 7% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 7% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 50% LPC 35% NDP 7% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 50% LPC 36% NDP 7% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 50% LPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 49% LPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 49% LPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 49% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 49% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 50% LPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 50% LPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 50% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 49% LPC 38% NDP 7% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 50% LPC 38% NDP 7% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 49% LPC 38% NDP 7% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 49% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 49% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 49% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 49% LPC 38% NDP 7% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 50% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 51% LPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 50% LPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 50% LPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 50% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 50% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 50% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 50% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 50% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 50% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 58% LPC 36% NDP 4% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 58% LPC 36% NDP 4% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 58% LPC 36% NDP 4% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 58% LPC 36% NDP 4% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Chatham-Kent—Leamington

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Chatham-Kent—Leamington



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 58% ± 6% 48.0% 42.4% 57.5% LPC 36% ± 6% 29.1% 26.7% 35.9% NDP 4% ± 2% 15.3% 14.6% 4.1% PPC 1% ± 1% 2.7% 14.7% 1.5% GPC 1% ± 1% 4.3% 1.5% 1.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.