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Canada

Papineau


MP elect: Marjorie Michel (LPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Papineau


Liberal Marjorie Michel
Conservative Julio Rivera
NDP Niall Ricardo
Bloc Quebecois Sophy Forget Belec
PPC Noah Cherney
Marxist-Leninist Garnet Colly
Rhinoceros Xavier Watso
Communist Stephane Doucet

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Papineau 53% ± 0%▼ LPC 17% ± 0%▲ BQ 16% ± 0%▲ NDP 11% ± 0% CPC 3% ± 0%▲ IND LPC 2025 52.7% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Papineau >99% LPC <1% BQ <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Papineau

LPC 53% ± 0% CPC 11% ± 0% NDP 16% ± 0% BQ 17% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Papineau 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP BQ April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 49% NDP 19% BQ 14% CPC 10% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 52% NDP 18% BQ 13% CPC 10% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 54% NDP 17% BQ 13% CPC 9% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 54% NDP 16% BQ 13% CPC 10% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 54% NDP 16% BQ 13% CPC 10% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 54% NDP 16% BQ 13% CPC 9% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 54% NDP 16% BQ 13% CPC 9% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 54% NDP 16% BQ 13% CPC 9% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 58% NDP 14% BQ 12% CPC 9% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 58% NDP 14% BQ 12% CPC 9% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 58% NDP 13% BQ 12% CPC 9% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 59% NDP 13% BQ 12% CPC 9% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 60% NDP 12% BQ 12% CPC 9% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 60% NDP 12% BQ 11% CPC 9% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 60% NDP 12% BQ 11% CPC 9% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 62% NDP 12% BQ 10% CPC 10% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 63% NDP 12% BQ 10% CPC 10% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 64% NDP 12% BQ 10% CPC 10% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 65% NDP 12% BQ 10% CPC 10% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 65% NDP 12% BQ 10% CPC 9% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 65% NDP 11% BQ 10% CPC 9% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 65% NDP 11% CPC 9% BQ 9% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 65% NDP 12% BQ 9% CPC 9% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 65% NDP 12% BQ 10% CPC 9% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 66% NDP 12% BQ 10% CPC 9% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 66% NDP 12% BQ 9% CPC 9% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 61% NDP 14% BQ 12% CPC 10% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 61% NDP 14% BQ 12% CPC 10% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 61% NDP 14% BQ 11% CPC 10% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 61% NDP 14% BQ 11% CPC 10% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 59% NDP 14% BQ 12% CPC 10% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 59% NDP 15% BQ 12% CPC 10% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 59% NDP 15% BQ 12% CPC 10% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 59% NDP 14% BQ 12% CPC 10% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 59% NDP 14% BQ 12% CPC 11% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 59% NDP 14% BQ 12% CPC 10% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 59% NDP 14% BQ 13% CPC 11% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 58% NDP 14% BQ 13% CPC 11% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 57% NDP 14% BQ 13% CPC 11% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 57% NDP 15% BQ 13% CPC 11% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 57% NDP 15% BQ 13% CPC 12% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 57% NDP 15% BQ 13% CPC 12% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 59% NDP 14% BQ 13% CPC 11% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 53% BQ 17% NDP 16% CPC 11% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Papineau

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Papineau



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 53% ± 0% 51.1% 50.3% 52.7% BQ 17% ± 0% 16.0% 15.0% 16.8% NDP 16% ± 0% 19.2% 22.7% 16.4% CPC 11% ± 0% 4.2% 4.8% 10.5% IND 3% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% PPC 1% ± 0% 0.6% 2.3% 1.0% GPC 0% ± 0% 7.4% 3.2% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.