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Canada


Outremont (federal)


MP: Rachel Bendayan (LPC)


Latest projection: March 17, 2024

Toss up LPC/NDP
Outremont 35% ± 7%▲ 33% ± 7% 13% ± 5%▼ 10% ± 4% 7% ± 4% LPC 2021 45.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Outremont 58% 42% <1% Odds of winning | March 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Outremont

LPC 35% ± 7% CPC 10% ± 4% NDP 33% ± 7% GPC 7% ± 4% BQ 13% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Outremont 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Odds of winning | Outremont

LPC 58% CPC <1% NDP 42% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Outremont



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 33.5% 46.2% 45.2% 35% ± 7% NDP 44.1% 20.1% 26.08% 33% ± 7% BQ 8.4% 13.8% 15.09% 13% ± 5% CPC 9.5% 6.5% 7.83% 10% ± 4% GPC 3.6% 12.1% 3.3% 7% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 0.9% 2.23% 1% ± 1% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.26% 0% ± 0%