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Canada

Etobicoke Centre


MP elect: Yvan Baker (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC likely

Candidates | Etobicoke Centre


Liberal Yvan Baker*
Conservative Ted Opitz
NDP Ji Won Jung

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Etobicoke Centre 54% ± 6% LPC 44% ± 6% CPC LPC 2025 53.6% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Etobicoke Centre 96%▼ LPC 4%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Etobicoke Centre

LPC 54% ± 6% CPC 44% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Etobicoke Centre 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 52% LPC 30% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 51% LPC 32% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 50% LPC 32% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 48% LPC 35% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 46% LPC 38% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 44% LPC 42% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 44% CPC 43% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 45% CPC 42% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 44% CPC 43% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 46% CPC 41% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 49% CPC 40% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 49% CPC 39% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 50% CPC 39% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 49% CPC 39% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 50% CPC 39% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 50% CPC 39% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 51% CPC 39% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 51% CPC 39% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 52% CPC 38% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 53% CPC 38% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 53% CPC 38% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 53% CPC 39% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 54% CPC 38% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 55% CPC 38% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 55% CPC 38% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 55% CPC 37% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 55% CPC 38% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 54% CPC 38% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 55% CPC 38% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 55% CPC 38% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 57% CPC 38% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 56% CPC 38% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 57% CPC 38% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 57% CPC 38% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 57% CPC 38% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 57% CPC 38% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 57% CPC 38% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 57% CPC 38% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 56% CPC 39% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 56% CPC 39% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 55% CPC 40% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 55% CPC 39% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 56% CPC 38% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 56% CPC 38% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 56% CPC 39% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 56% CPC 39% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 56% CPC 39% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 55% CPC 39% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 56% CPC 39% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 54% CPC 44% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 54% CPC 44% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 54% CPC 44% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 54% CPC 44% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Etobicoke Centre

LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Etobicoke Centre



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 54% ± 6% 52.1% 48.1% 53.6% CPC 44% ± 6% 33.4% 34.1% 44.0% NDP 2% ± 2% 8.5% 10.8% 2.4% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.1% 6.6% 0.0% GPC 0% ± 0% 4.6% 0.3% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.