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Etobicoke Centre


Latest projection: October 13, 2024
CPC safe
Etobicoke Centre 49% ± 8%▼ CPC 33% ± 7%▲ LPC 12% ± 4% NDP 4% ± 4%▲ PPC LPC 2021 48.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 13, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Etobicoke Centre >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | October 13, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Etobicoke Centre

LPC 33% ± 7% CPC 49% ± 8% NDP 12% ± 4% PPC 4% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Etobicoke Centre 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP PPC October 13, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 46% LPC 38% NDP 12% PPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 46% LPC 38% NDP 11% PPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 45% LPC 39% NDP 11% PPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 45% LPC 39% NDP 12% PPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 45% LPC 39% NDP 11% PPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 44% LPC 40% NDP 12% PPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 44% LPC 39% NDP 13% PPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 11% PPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 11% PPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 11% PPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 11% PPC 3% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 11% PPC 3% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 49% LPC 34% NDP 11% PPC 4% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 49% LPC 34% NDP 11% PPC 4% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 11% PPC 4% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 47% LPC 36% NDP 11% PPC 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 48% LPC 36% NDP 10% PPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 48% LPC 36% NDP 10% PPC 4% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 50% LPC 35% NDP 10% PPC 3% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 51% LPC 34% NDP 10% PPC 3% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 50% LPC 33% NDP 10% PPC 3% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 50% LPC 32% NDP 12% PPC 3% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 49% LPC 33% NDP 12% PPC 4% 2024-10-13

Odds of winning | Etobicoke Centre

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP October 13, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-13

Recent electoral history | Etobicoke Centre



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 52.1% 48.1% 33% ± 7% CPC 33.4% 34.1% 49% ± 8% NDP 8.5% 10.8% 12% ± 4% PPC 1.1% 6.6% 4% ± 4% GPC 4.6% 0.3% 1% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.