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Terra Nova—The Peninsulas



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC likely

Candidates | Terra Nova—The Peninsulas


Liberal Anthony Germain
Conservative Jonathan Rowe
NDP Liam Ryan

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Terra Nova—The Peninsulas 55% ± 9% LPC 40% ± 9% CPC 5% ± 4% NDP LPC 2021 47.3% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Terra Nova—The Peninsulas 97% LPC 3% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Terra Nova—The Peninsulas

LPC 55% ± 9% CPC 40% ± 9% NDP 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Terra Nova—The Peninsulas 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 7% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 50% CPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 52% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 53% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 53% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 53% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 53% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 53% CPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 56% CPC 35% NDP 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 56% CPC 36% NDP 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 56% CPC 36% NDP 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 55% CPC 36% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 56% CPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 56% CPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 54% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 54% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 54% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 54% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 55% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 55% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 56% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 56% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 55% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 55% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 55% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 55% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Terra Nova—The Peninsulas

LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Terra Nova—The Peninsulas



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 46.3% 47.3% 55% ± 9% CPC 39.0% 40.4% 40% ± 9% NDP 11.7% 8.3% 5% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 4.0% 0% ± 0% GPC 3.0% 0.0% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.