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Canada

Terra Nova—The Peninsulas


MP: Jonathan Rowe (CPC)

Latest projection: July 6, 2025
LPC leaning

Recent electoral history | Terra Nova—The Peninsulas


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 51% ± 9% 46.3% 47.3% 47.9% CPC 44% ± 9% 39.0% 40.4% 48.0% NDP 5% ± 4% 11.7% 8.3% 4.1% PPC 0% ± 0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Terra Nova—Les Péninsules


Terra Nova—The Peninsulas 51% ± 9% LPC 44% ± 9% CPC 5% ± 4%▲ NDP CPC 2025 48.0% 338Canada vote projection | July 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Terra Nova—The Peninsulas 80% LPC 20% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Terra Nova—The Peninsulas

LPC 51% ± 9% CPC 44% ± 9% NDP 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Terra Nova—The Peninsulas 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 57% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 56% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 56% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 55% LPC 33% NDP 9% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 52% LPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 50% LPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 48% LPC 42% NDP 7% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 7% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 50% CPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 52% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 53% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 53% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 53% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 53% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 53% CPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 56% CPC 35% NDP 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 56% CPC 36% NDP 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 56% CPC 36% NDP 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 55% CPC 36% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 56% CPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 56% CPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 54% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 54% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 54% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 54% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 55% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 55% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 56% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 56% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 55% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 55% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 55% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 55% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 55% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 56% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 56% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 56% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 56% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 56% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 55% CPC 41% NDP 4% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 54% CPC 42% NDP 4% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 54% CPC 42% NDP 4% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 53% CPC 43% NDP 4% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 53% CPC 43% NDP 4% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 54% CPC 42% NDP 4% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 54% CPC 43% NDP 3% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 48% CPC 48% NDP 4% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 48% CPC 48% NDP 4% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 48% CPC 48% NDP 4% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 48% LPC 48% NDP 4% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 48% LPC 48% NDP 4% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 51% CPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 51% CPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 51% CPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Terra Nova—The Peninsulas

LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader