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Canada


St. John’s South–Mount Pearl (federal)


MP: Seamus O’Regan (LPC)


Latest projection: April 14, 2024

LPC safe hold
St. John’s South–Mount Pearl 44% ± 7% 28% ± 6% 27% ± 6% LPC 2021 56.15% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 14, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% St. John’s South–Mount Pearl >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | April 14, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | St. John’s South–Mount Pearl

LPC 44% ± 7% CPC 28% ± 6% NDP 27% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | St. John’s South–Mount Pearl 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP

Odds of winning | St. John’s South–Mount Pearl

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | St. John’s South–Mount Pearl



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 57.9% 51.1% 56.15% 44% ± 7% NDP 36.8% 26.8% 23.3% 27% ± 6% CPC 4.6% 19.1% 18.72% 28% ± 6% PPC 0.0% 0.8% 1.82% 1% ± 1% GPC 0.8% 1.8% 0.0% 1% ± 1%