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Canada

Terra Nova—The Peninsulas



Latest projection: November 17, 2024
CPC likely
Terra Nova—The Peninsulas 53% ± 9%▼ CPC 35% ± 8%▲ LPC 8% ± 4% NDP LPC 2021 47.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Terra Nova—The Peninsulas 99%▼ CPC 1%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | November 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Terra Nova—The Peninsulas

LPC 35% ± 8% CPC 53% ± 9% NDP 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Terra Nova—The Peninsulas 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 58% LPC 33% NDP 7% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 58% LPC 32% NDP 7% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 57% LPC 33% NDP 7% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 57% LPC 33% NDP 7% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 56% LPC 34% NDP 7% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 55% LPC 35% NDP 8% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 54% LPC 35% NDP 9% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 53% LPC 34% NDP 9% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 51% LPC 36% NDP 9% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 50% LPC 37% NDP 9% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 49% LPC 38% NDP 9% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 49% LPC 38% NDP 9% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 50% LPC 37% NDP 8% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 51% LPC 36% NDP 8% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 52% LPC 35% NDP 8% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 53% LPC 35% NDP 8% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 55% LPC 34% NDP 7% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 55% LPC 33% NDP 7% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 56% LPC 33% NDP 7% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 56% LPC 33% NDP 7% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 7% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 56% LPC 33% NDP 8% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 55% LPC 32% NDP 8% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 55% LPC 33% NDP 8% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 55% LPC 33% NDP 8% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 54% LPC 33% NDP 8% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 54% LPC 34% NDP 8% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 53% LPC 35% NDP 8% 2024-11-17

Odds of winning | Terra Nova—The Peninsulas

LPC 1% CPC 99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-11-17

Recent electoral history | Terra Nova—The Peninsulas



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 46.3% 47.3% 35% ± 8% CPC 39.0% 40.4% 53% ± 9% NDP 11.7% 8.3% 8% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 4.0% 2% ± 3% GPC 3.0% 0.0% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.