logo
Canada

Terra Nova—The Peninsulas


MP elect: Jonathan Rowe (CPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC

Candidates | Terra Nova—The Peninsulas


Liberal Anthony Germain
Conservative Jonathan Rowe
NDP Liam Ryan

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Terra Nova—The Peninsulas 48% ± 7% CPC 48% ± 7% LPC 4% ± 3% NDP CPC 2025 48.0% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Terra Nova—The Peninsulas 50% CPC 50% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Terra Nova—The Peninsulas

LPC 48% ± 7% CPC 48% ± 7% NDP 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Terra Nova—The Peninsulas 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 57% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 56% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 56% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 55% LPC 33% NDP 9% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 52% LPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 50% LPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 48% LPC 42% NDP 7% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 7% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 50% CPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 52% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 53% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 53% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 53% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 53% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 53% CPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 56% CPC 35% NDP 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 56% CPC 36% NDP 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 56% CPC 36% NDP 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 55% CPC 36% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 56% CPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 56% CPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 54% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 54% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 54% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 54% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 55% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 55% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 56% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 56% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 55% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 55% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 55% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 55% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 55% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 56% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 56% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 56% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 56% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 56% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 55% CPC 41% NDP 4% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 54% CPC 42% NDP 4% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 54% CPC 42% NDP 4% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 53% CPC 43% NDP 4% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 53% CPC 43% NDP 4% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 54% CPC 42% NDP 4% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 54% CPC 43% NDP 3% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 48% CPC 48% NDP 4% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 48% CPC 48% NDP 4% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 48% CPC 48% NDP 4% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 48% LPC 48% NDP 4% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Terra Nova—The Peninsulas

LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Terra Nova—The Peninsulas



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 48% ± 7% 39.0% 40.4% 48.0% LPC 48% ± 7% 46.3% 47.3% 47.9% NDP 4% ± 3% 11.7% 8.3% 4.1% PPC 0% ± 0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% GPC 0% ± 0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.