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Canada

Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry



Latest projection: April 17, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry


Liberal Sarah Good
Conservative Eric Duncan*
NDP Mario Leclerc
Green Gordon Kubanek

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry 59% ± 8% CPC 33% ± 8%▼ LPC 5% ± 4% NDP 3% ± 2% GPC CPC 2021 54.3% 338Canada vote projection | April 17, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 17, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry

LPC 33% ± 8% CPC 59% ± 8% NDP 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 60% LPC 22% NDP 9% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 59% LPC 24% NDP 8% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 58% LPC 26% NDP 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 57% LPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 57% LPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 57% LPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 57% LPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 57% LPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 57% LPC 29% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 57% LPC 29% NDP 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 56% LPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 56% LPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 57% LPC 31% NDP 6% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 57% LPC 31% NDP 6% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 58% LPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 58% LPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 58% LPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 58% LPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 58% LPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 57% LPC 33% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 57% LPC 33% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 58% LPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 58% LPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 58% LPC 33% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 59% LPC 34% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 59% LPC 33% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 59% LPC 34% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 59% LPC 34% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 59% LPC 34% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 59% LPC 34% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 59% LPC 34% NDP 5% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 59% LPC 33% NDP 5% 2025-04-17 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 53.4% 54.3% 59% ± 8% LPC 26.5% 24.7% 33% ± 8% NDP 14.0% 10.9% 5% ± 4% GPC 3.9% 2.3% 3% ± 2% PPC 2.2% 7.7% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.