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Canada

Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes


MP elect: Jamie Schmale (CPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes


Liberal Nell Thomas
Conservative Jamie Schmale*
NDP Aylea Teel
PPC Michael Penman

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes 57% ± 6% CPC 39% ± 6%▲ LPC 3% ± 2% NDP CPC 2025 56.6% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes

LPC 39% ± 6% CPC 57% ± 6% NDP 3% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 65% NDP 15% LPC 11% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 64% NDP 15% LPC 12% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 64% NDP 15% LPC 12% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 61% LPC 16% NDP 14% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 60% LPC 18% NDP 13% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 59% LPC 20% NDP 12% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 58% LPC 22% NDP 11% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 58% LPC 22% NDP 11% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 58% LPC 22% NDP 11% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 57% LPC 24% NDP 10% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 56% LPC 26% NDP 9% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 56% LPC 26% NDP 9% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 55% LPC 27% NDP 9% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 56% LPC 26% NDP 9% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 55% LPC 27% NDP 9% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 55% LPC 27% NDP 9% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 55% LPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 55% LPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 55% LPC 30% NDP 8% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 55% LPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 55% LPC 31% NDP 7% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 55% LPC 31% NDP 7% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 56% LPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 57% LPC 31% NDP 6% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 57% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 56% LPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 56% LPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 57% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 56% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 56% LPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 56% LPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 56% LPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 56% LPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 56% LPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 56% LPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 57% LPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 57% LPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 58% LPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 59% LPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 59% LPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 59% LPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 58% LPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 57% LPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 58% LPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 58% LPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 58% LPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 58% LPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 58% LPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 59% LPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 57% LPC 38% NDP 3% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 57% LPC 38% NDP 3% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 57% LPC 38% NDP 3% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 57% LPC 39% NDP 3% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 57% ± 6% 48.6% 52.0% 56.6% LPC 39% ± 6% 26.7% 23.9% 38.7% NDP 3% ± 2% 14.5% 14.2% 3.5% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.9% 6.8% 1.3% GPC 0% ± 0% 8.2% 2.5% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.