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Canada


Hamilton Centre (federal)


MP: Matthew Green (NDP)


Latest projection: April 14, 2024

NDP safe hold
Hamilton Centre 51% ± 7%▼ 21% ± 5% 17% ± 5% 7% ± 4% 4% ± 4% NDP 2021 48.39% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 14, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Hamilton Centre >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | April 14, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Hamilton Centre

LPC 17% ± 5% CPC 21% ± 5% NDP 51% ± 7% GPC 7% ± 4% PPC 4% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Hamilton Centre 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC

Odds of winning | Hamilton Centre

LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP >99% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Hamilton Centre



2015 2019 2021 Proj. NDP 45.6% 46.2% 48.39% 51% ± 7% LPC 33.4% 28.7% 26.46% 17% ± 5% CPC 14.6% 14.4% 15.18% 21% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 1.9% 6.5% 4% ± 4% GPC 4.3% 7.6% 2.71% 7% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.9% 0.24% 0% ± 0%