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Canada

Cumberland—Colchester


MP elect: Alana Hirtle (LPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
LPC leaning

Candidates | Cumberland—Colchester


Liberal Alana Hirtle
Conservative Stephen Ellis*
NDP Larry Duchesne
Green Kelly-Ann Callaghan
PPC Paul Church

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Cumberland—Colchester 48% ± 0%▲ LPC 46% ± 0%▼ CPC 4% ± 0% NDP LPC 2025 48.3% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Cumberland—Colchester 71%▲ LPC 29%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Cumberland—Colchester

LPC 48% ± 0% CPC 46% ± 0% NDP 4% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Cumberland—Colchester 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 49% LPC 33% NDP 10% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 47% LPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 46% LPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 46% LPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 45% LPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 45% LPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 45% LPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 45% LPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 46% CPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 46% CPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 46% CPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 46% LPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 47% LPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 47% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 47% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 47% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 47% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 47% LPC 45% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 5% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 5% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 5% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 49% LPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 49% LPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 49% LPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 49% LPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 48% CPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Cumberland—Colchester

LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 62% CPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 62% CPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 62% CPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Cumberland—Colchester



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 48% ± 0% 36.7% 34.2% 48.3% CPC 46% ± 0% 35.7% 46.0% 45.8% NDP 4% ± 0% 12.0% 12.3% 3.8% GPC 1% ± 0% 13.2% 2.6% 1.4% PPC 1% ± 0% 1.3% 4.2% 0.7%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.