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Cumberland—Colchester

Latest update: January 11, 2026
L
MP: Alana Hirtle
Nova Scotia
Toss up LPC/CPC

Recent electoral history | Cumberland—Colchester


2019 2021 2025 Projection CPC 44% ± 8% 35.7% 46.0% 45.8% LPC 44% ± 8% 36.7% 34.2% 48.3% NDP 7% ± 4% 12.0% 12.3% 3.8% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.3% 4.2% 0.7%

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338Canada Cumberland—Colchester projection

Latest update: January 11, 2026

338Canada projection for Cumberland—Colchester


Cumberland—Colchester 37% 52% 44% ± 8% CPC 36% 51% 44% ± 8% LPC 3% 11% 7% ± 4% NDP 0% 6% 3% ± 3% GPC LPC 2025 48.3% 338Canada vote projection | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Cumberland—Colchester 54%▲ CPC 46%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Cumberland—Colchester

LPC 44% ± 8% CPC 44% ± 8% NDP 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Cumberland—Colchester 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 49% LPC 44% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 49% LPC 44% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 48% CPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 48% CPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 48% CPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 48% CPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 48% CPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 49% CPC 45% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 50% CPC 44% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 52% CPC 43% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 51% CPC 42% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 51% CPC 42% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 51% CPC 42% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 51% CPC 43% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 51% CPC 42% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 51% CPC 42% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 50% CPC 42% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 51% CPC 42% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 50% CPC 43% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 50% CPC 43% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 49% CPC 44% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 50% CPC 43% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 50% CPC 42% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 50% CPC 42% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 50% CPC 42% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 50% CPC 42% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 50% CPC 42% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 50% CPC 42% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 50% CPC 42% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 49% CPC 42% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 49% CPC 42% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 49% CPC 42% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 49% CPC 42% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 48% CPC 43% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 47% CPC 44% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 48% CPC 43% NDP 6% GPC 2% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 44% CPC 44% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 44% CPC 44% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 44% LPC 44% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2026-01-11

Odds of winning | Cumberland—Colchester

LPC 46% CPC 54% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2026-01-11