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Canada


Portage–Lisgar (federal)


MP: Branden Leslie (CPC)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

CPC safe hold
Portage–Lisgar 73% ± 7%▲ 12% ± 6% 7% ± 4% 6% ± 3% CPC 2021 52.49% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Portage–Lisgar >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Portage–Lisgar

LPC 6% ± 3% CPC 73% ± 7% NDP 7% ± 4% PPC 12% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Portage–Lisgar 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP PPC

Odds of winning | Portage–Lisgar

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Portage–Lisgar



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 60.8% 70.8% 52.49% 73% ± 7% PPC 0.0% 2.6% 21.57% 12% ± 6% NDP 6.2% 8.7% 13.43% 7% ± 4% LPC 25.8% 10.7% 10.94% 6% ± 3% GPC 4.0% 5.3% 0.0% 2% ± 2%