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Riding Mountain



Latest projection: April 17, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Riding Mountain


Liberal Terry Hayward
Conservative Dan Mazier*
NDP Andrew Douglas Maxwell
Green Liz Clayton
PPC Jim Oliver

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Riding Mountain 59% ± 9%▼ CPC 29% ± 8%▲ LPC 7% ± 4% NDP 3% ± 3% GPC CPC 2021 59.2% 338Canada vote projection | April 17, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Riding Mountain >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 17, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Riding Mountain

LPC 29% ± 8% CPC 59% ± 9% NDP 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Riding Mountain 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 60% LPC 17% NDP 12% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 58% LPC 20% NDP 11% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 59% LPC 25% NDP 8% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 58% LPC 25% NDP 8% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 58% LPC 26% NDP 8% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 58% LPC 26% NDP 8% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 58% LPC 26% NDP 8% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 58% LPC 26% NDP 8% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 58% LPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 58% LPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 58% LPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 58% LPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 60% LPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 60% LPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 59% LPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 59% LPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 60% LPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 59% LPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 59% LPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 59% LPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 59% LPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 60% LPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 60% LPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 60% LPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 59% LPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Riding Mountain

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Riding Mountain



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 64.4% 59.2% 59% ± 9% LPC 13.3% 12.7% 29% ± 8% NDP 13.9% 14.5% 7% ± 4% GPC 5.4% 2.1% 3% ± 3% PPC 1.8% 10.5% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.