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New brunswick

Welcome to 338Canada New Brunswick!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as a occasional panelist for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

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338Canada Projection | New Brunswick


Latest update: October 22, 2024

Popular vote projection 48% ± 0% LIB 35% ± 0% PC 14% ± 0% GRN 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 22, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 25 seats for a majority 31▲ [31-31] LIB 16▼ [16-16] PC 2 [2-2] GRN 0 [0-0] PANB 0 NDP 338Canada New Brunswick | October 22, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats >99%▲ LIB <1%▼ PC <1% GRN <1%▼ Tie Odds of winning | October 22, 2024
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome >99% LIB maj. <1% LIB min. <1% PC min. <1% PC maj. Odds of outcome | October 22, 2024

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

New Brunswick | Popular vote projection

LIB PC NDP GRN LIB 48% ± 0% PC 35% ± 0% NDP 1% ± 0% GRN 14% ± 0% Popular vote projection % 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-10-01 Election 2024 Campaign begins October 22, 2024 2024-09-23 LIB 40% PC 39% GRN 15% NDP 3% 2024-09-23 2024-10-02 LIB 42% PC 40% GRN 14% NDP 2% 2024-10-02 2024-10-04 LIB 42% PC 39% GRN 15% NDP 2% 2024-10-04 2024-10-17 LIB 43% PC 39% GRN 14% NDP 2% 2024-10-17 2024-10-20 LIB 45% PC 39% GRN 11% NDP 2% 2024-10-20 2024-10-22 LIB 48% PC 35% GRN 14% NDP 1% 2024-10-22

New Brunswick | Seat projection

LIB 31 [30-30] PC 16 [17-17] GRN 2 [2-2] PANB 0 [0-0] Seat projection 30 20 10 2024-09-15 2024-10-01 2024-10-15 Election 2024 Campaign begins LIB PC GRN PANB Majority: 25 seats October 22, 2024 2024-09-23 PC 24 LIB 23 GRN 2 2024-09-23 2024-10-02 PC 25 LIB 22 GRN 2 2024-10-02 2024-10-04 PC 24 LIB 23 GRN 2 2024-10-04 2024-10-17 LIB 25 PC 22 GRN 2 2024-10-17 2024-10-20 LIB 28 PC 19 GRN 2 2024-10-20 2024-10-22 LIB 31 PC 16 GRN 2 2024-10-22

New Brunswick | Odds of winning the most seats

LIB >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-09-15 2024-10-01 2024-10-15 Election 2024 Campaign begins LIB PC October 22, 2024 2024-09-23 PC 52% LIB 42% 2024-09-23 2024-10-02 PC 52% LIB 42% 2024-10-02 2024-10-04 PC 48% LIB 46% 2024-10-04 2024-10-17 LIB 59% PC 35% 2024-10-17 2024-10-20 LIB 73% PC 24% 2024-10-20 2024-10-22 LIB >99% PC <1% 2024-10-22

New Brunswick | Odds of election outcome

LIB majority >99% LIB minority <1% PC majority <1% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-09-15 2024-10-01 2024-10-15 Election 2024 Campaign begins LIB majority LIB minority PC majority October 22, 2024 2024-09-23 PC majority 46% LIB majority 36% LIB minority 6% 2024-09-23 2024-10-02 PC majority 46% LIB majority 35% LIB minority 6% 2024-10-02 2024-10-04 PC majority 41% LIB majority 38% LIB minority 8% 2024-10-04 2024-10-17 LIB majority 52% PC majority 28% LIB minority 7% 2024-10-17 2024-10-20 LIB majority 68% PC majority 20% LIB minority 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-22 LIB majority >99% PC majority <1% LIB minority <1% 2024-10-22