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Canada

Fredericton—Oromocto


MP: David Myles (LPC)

Latest projection: June 29, 2025
LPC safe

Recent electoral history | Fredericton—Oromocto


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 64% ± 8% 28.8% 37.8% 61.3% CPC 29% ± 8% 28.9% 34.5% 32.3% GPC 3% ± 3% 33.7% 12.9% 3.1% NDP 2% ± 2% 6.2% 13.0% 1.8% PPC 0% ± 1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Fredericton—Oromocto


Fredericton—Oromocto 64% ± 8% LPC 29% ± 8% CPC 3% ± 3% GPC LPC 2025 61.3% 338Canada vote projection | June 29, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Fredericton—Oromocto >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% GPC Odds of winning | June 29, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Fredericton—Oromocto

LPC 64% ± 8% CPC 29% ± 8% GPC 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Fredericton—Oromocto 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC GPC June 29, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 48% LPC 24% GPC 12% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 48% LPC 24% GPC 13% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 47% LPC 24% GPC 13% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 46% LPC 26% GPC 13% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 44% LPC 28% GPC 14% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 42% LPC 32% GPC 14% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 41% LPC 34% GPC 14% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 37% LPC 37% GPC 13% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 37% CPC 37% GPC 13% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 40% CPC 34% GPC 14% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 46% CPC 34% GPC 13% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 46% CPC 33% GPC 13% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 46% CPC 33% GPC 13% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 46% CPC 33% GPC 13% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 46% CPC 33% GPC 13% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 46% CPC 33% GPC 13% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 50% CPC 31% GPC 12% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 50% CPC 31% GPC 12% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 50% CPC 32% GPC 12% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 50% CPC 32% GPC 12% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 50% CPC 32% GPC 11% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 50% CPC 33% GPC 11% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 11% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 10% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 10% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 49% CPC 36% GPC 10% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 49% CPC 36% GPC 10% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 49% CPC 36% GPC 10% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 10% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 9% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 9% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 9% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 50% CPC 34% GPC 9% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 49% CPC 34% GPC 9% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 9% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 9% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 9% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 9% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 9% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 9% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 50% CPC 34% GPC 9% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 9% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 9% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 9% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 9% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 48% CPC 36% GPC 9% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 47% CPC 37% GPC 9% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 47% CPC 37% GPC 9% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 47% CPC 37% GPC 9% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 48% CPC 37% GPC 9% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 48% CPC 37% GPC 8% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 61% CPC 32% GPC 3% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 61% CPC 32% GPC 3% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 61% CPC 32% GPC 3% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 61% CPC 32% GPC 3% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 61% CPC 32% GPC 3% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 62% CPC 32% GPC 3% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 63% CPC 31% GPC 3% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 64% CPC 29% GPC 3% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 64% CPC 29% GPC 3% 2025-06-29 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Fredericton—Oromocto

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 29, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader