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Canada

Fredericton—Oromocto



Latest projection: March 25, 2025
LPC likely
Fredericton—Oromocto 50% ± 9%▲ LPC 31% ± 8%▼ CPC 12% ± 6%▼ GPC 6% ± 4% NDP LPC 2021 37.8% 338Canada vote projection | March 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Fredericton—Oromocto >99%▲ LPC <1%▼ CPC <1% GPC Odds of winning | March 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Fredericton—Oromocto

LPC 50% ± 9% CPC 31% ± 8% NDP 6% ± 4% GPC 12% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Fredericton—Oromocto 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP GPC March 25, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 37% CPC 37% GPC 13% NDP 11% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 40% CPC 34% GPC 14% NDP 9% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 46% CPC 34% GPC 13% NDP 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 46% CPC 33% GPC 13% NDP 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 46% CPC 33% GPC 13% NDP 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 46% CPC 33% GPC 13% NDP 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 46% CPC 33% GPC 13% NDP 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 46% CPC 33% GPC 13% NDP 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 50% CPC 31% GPC 12% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Fredericton—Oromocto

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP March 25, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Fredericton—Oromocto



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 28.8% 37.8% 50% ± 9% CPC 28.9% 34.5% 31% ± 8% GPC 33.7% 12.9% 12% ± 6% NDP 6.2% 13.0% 6% ± 4% PPC 1.5% 0.3% 1% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.