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Canada

Fredericton—Oromocto


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
CPC likely
Fredericton—Oromocto 40% ± 8%▼ CPC 32% ± 7%▲ LPC 13% ± 5% NDP 12% ± 5%▲ GPC LPC 2021 37.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Fredericton—Oromocto 93%▼ CPC 7%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Fredericton—Oromocto

LPC 32% ± 7% CPC 40% ± 8% NDP 13% ± 5% GPC 12% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Fredericton—Oromocto 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 47% LPC 27% GPC 12% NDP 11% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 48% LPC 27% GPC 12% NDP 11% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 48% LPC 28% GPC 12% NDP 11% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 47% LPC 27% GPC 12% NDP 12% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 47% LPC 28% NDP 12% GPC 12% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 46% LPC 29% NDP 12% GPC 12% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 45% LPC 29% NDP 13% GPC 11% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 44% LPC 28% NDP 13% GPC 11% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 42% LPC 30% NDP 13% GPC 11% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 41% LPC 31% NDP 13% GPC 11% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 40% LPC 32% NDP 13% GPC 12% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Fredericton—Oromocto

LPC 7% CPC 93% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Fredericton—Oromocto



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 28.8% 37.8% 32% ± 7% CPC 28.9% 34.5% 40% ± 8% NDP 6.2% 13.0% 13% ± 5% GPC 33.7% 12.9% 12% ± 5% PPC 1.5% 0.3% 0% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.