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Canada

Fredericton—Oromocto



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC likely

Candidates | Fredericton—Oromocto


Liberal David Myles
Conservative Brian Macdonald
NDP Nicki Lyons-MacFarlane
Green Pam Allen-LeBlanc
PPC Heather Michaud
Communist June Patterson
Centrist Brandon Ellis
Canadian Future Dominic Cardy

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Fredericton—Oromocto 49% ± 9% LPC 35% ± 8% CPC 9% ± 5% GPC 5% ± 4% NDP LPC 2021 37.8% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Fredericton—Oromocto 98% LPC 2% CPC <1% GPC Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Fredericton—Oromocto

LPC 49% ± 9% CPC 35% ± 8% NDP 5% ± 4% GPC 9% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Fredericton—Oromocto 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP GPC April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 37% CPC 37% GPC 13% NDP 11% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 40% CPC 34% GPC 14% NDP 9% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 46% CPC 34% GPC 13% NDP 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 46% CPC 33% GPC 13% NDP 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 46% CPC 33% GPC 13% NDP 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 46% CPC 33% GPC 13% NDP 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 46% CPC 33% GPC 13% NDP 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 46% CPC 33% GPC 13% NDP 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 50% CPC 31% GPC 12% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 50% CPC 31% GPC 12% NDP 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 50% CPC 32% GPC 12% NDP 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 50% CPC 32% GPC 12% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 50% CPC 32% GPC 11% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 50% CPC 33% GPC 11% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 11% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 10% NDP 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 10% NDP 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 49% CPC 36% GPC 10% NDP 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 49% CPC 36% GPC 10% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 49% CPC 36% GPC 10% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 10% NDP 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 9% NDP 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 50% CPC 35% GPC 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 50% CPC 34% GPC 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 49% CPC 34% GPC 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 49% CPC 35% GPC 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Fredericton—Oromocto

LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Fredericton—Oromocto



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 28.8% 37.8% 49% ± 9% CPC 28.9% 34.5% 35% ± 8% GPC 33.7% 12.9% 9% ± 5% NDP 6.2% 13.0% 5% ± 4% PPC 1.5% 0.3% 0% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.