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Fredericton—Oromocto

Latest update: February 8, 2026
L
MP: David Myles
New Brunswick
LPC safe
Projection — Fredericton—Oromocto → Demographic data — Fredericton—Oromocto → Regional projection — Atlantic Canada → All federal districts → Federal projection map → Federal polls → Back to 338Canada home → Riding roulette! →

Recent electoral history | Fredericton—Oromocto


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 60% ± 8% 28.8% 37.8% 61.3% CPC 30% ± 7% 28.9% 34.5% 32.3% GPC 5% ± 4% 33.7% 12.9% 3.1% NDP 4% ± 3% 6.2% 13.0% 1.8%

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338Canada Fredericton—Oromocto projection

Latest update: February 8, 2026

Fredericton—Oromocto 52% 67% 60% ± 8% ▲ LPC 23% 37% 30% ± 7% CPC 1% 8% 5% ± 4% GPC 1% 7% 4% ± 3% NDP LPC 2025 61.3% 338Canada vote projection | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Fredericton—Oromocto >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% GPC Odds of winning | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Fredericton—Oromocto

LPC 60% ± 8% CPC 30% ± 7% NDP 4% ± 3% GPC 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Fredericton—Oromocto 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC IND February 8, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 47% CPC 37% GPC 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 48% CPC 37% GPC 9% NDP 4% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 48% CPC 37% GPC 8% NDP 4% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 61% CPC 32% GPC 3% NDP 2% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 61% CPC 32% GPC 3% NDP 2% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 61% CPC 32% GPC 3% NDP 2% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 61% CPC 32% GPC 3% NDP 2% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 61% CPC 32% GPC 3% NDP 2% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 62% CPC 32% GPC 3% NDP 2% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 63% CPC 31% GPC 3% NDP 2% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 64% CPC 29% GPC 3% NDP 2% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 64% CPC 29% GPC 3% NDP 2% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 64% CPC 29% GPC 3% NDP 2% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 64% CPC 29% GPC 3% NDP 2% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 63% CPC 30% GPC 3% NDP 2% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 63% CPC 29% GPC 4% NDP 2% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 63% CPC 29% GPC 4% NDP 2% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 63% CPC 29% GPC 4% NDP 2% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 64% CPC 29% GPC 4% NDP 2% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 62% CPC 30% GPC 4% NDP 2% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 62% CPC 30% GPC 4% NDP 2% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 61% CPC 31% GPC 4% NDP 2% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 62% CPC 30% GPC 4% NDP 2% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 62% CPC 30% GPC 4% NDP 2% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 62% CPC 30% GPC 4% NDP 3% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 63% CPC 29% GPC 4% NDP 3% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 62% CPC 29% GPC 4% NDP 3% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 62% CPC 29% GPC 4% NDP 3% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 62% CPC 29% GPC 4% NDP 3% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 62% CPC 29% GPC 4% NDP 3% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 62% CPC 30% GPC 4% NDP 3% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 62% CPC 29% GPC 4% NDP 3% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 61% CPC 29% GPC 4% NDP 3% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 61% CPC 29% GPC 4% NDP 3% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 60% CPC 31% GPC 4% NDP 3% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 59% CPC 31% GPC 4% NDP 3% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 60% CPC 31% GPC 4% NDP 3% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 56% CPC 32% GPC 5% NDP 4% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 56% CPC 32% GPC 5% NDP 4% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 56% CPC 32% GPC 5% NDP 4% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC 56% CPC 32% GPC 5% NDP 4% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC 56% CPC 32% GPC 5% NDP 5% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC 58% CPC 30% GPC 5% NDP 4% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC 60% CPC 30% GPC 5% NDP 4% 2026-02-08

Odds of winning | Fredericton—Oromocto

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP February 8, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-08


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Demographic data | Fredericton—Oromocto

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 90.6% English 4.2% French 1.2% Arabic 0.7% Mandarin 0.4% Russian 0.3% Spanish 0.3% PersianFredericton—OromoctoSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 5.1% No diploma 24.5% High school 5.5% Trade 20.7% College / Cégep 1.9% Some university 27.6% Bachelor's 14.7% PostgraduateFredericton—OromoctoSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 88.7% Not visible minority 11.3% Visible minority 2.4% South Asian 2.3% Black 1.9% Arab 1.5% Chinese 0.8% Filipino 0.7% Latin AmericanFredericton—OromoctoSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 41.4% No Religion 20.6% Catholic 7.4% Christian (n.o.s.) 6.3% Baptist 6.0% United Church 5.6% Anglican 2.9% Muslim 2.4% Other ChristianFredericton—OromoctoSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 59.7% Owner 39.1% Renter 1.2% Community housingFredericton—OromoctoSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 61.2% Employed 33.5% Not in labour force 5.3% UnemployedFredericton—OromoctoSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 95.0% Non-Indigenous 5.0% Indigenous identity 3.8% First Nations 0.8% Metis 0.2% Inuk 0.1% Others 0.1% MultipleFredericton—OromoctoSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 88.0% Car / truck / van 6.3% Walking 2.8% Public transit 1.7% Other 1.2% BicycleFredericton—OromoctoSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.