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Recent electoral history | Winnipeg Centre


2019 2021 2025 Projection NDP 39% ± 9% 41.1% 49.7% 39.4% LPC 36% ± 8% 33.7% 29.0% 35.4% CPC 20% ± 6% 17.5% 12.8% 22.3% PPC 1% ± 2% 1.5% 4.3% 1.1%

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338Canada Winnipeg Centre projection

Latest update: February 8, 2026

Winnipeg Centre 30% 48% 39% ± 9% NDP 28% 45% 36% ± 8% LPC 14% 27% 20% ± 6% CPC NDP 2025 39.4% 338Canada vote projection | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Winnipeg Centre 65%▼ NDP 35%▲ LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Winnipeg Centre

LPC 36% ± 8% CPC 20% ± 6% NDP 39% ± 9% Popular vote projection % | Winnipeg Centre 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC IND February 8, 2026 2025-04-26 NDP 41% LPC 40% CPC 14% GPC 2% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 NDP 41% LPC 40% CPC 14% GPC 2% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 NDP 40% LPC 40% CPC 14% GPC 2% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 NDP 39% LPC 35% CPC 22% GPC 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 NDP 40% LPC 35% CPC 22% GPC 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 NDP 39% LPC 35% CPC 22% GPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 NDP 39% LPC 35% CPC 22% GPC 1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 NDP 39% LPC 35% CPC 22% GPC 1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 NDP 40% LPC 35% CPC 22% GPC 1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 NDP 41% LPC 35% CPC 22% GPC 1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 NDP 41% LPC 35% CPC 21% GPC 1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 NDP 41% LPC 36% CPC 20% GPC 1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 NDP 42% LPC 36% CPC 19% GPC 1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 NDP 42% LPC 36% CPC 19% GPC 1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 NDP 43% LPC 36% CPC 19% GPC 1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 NDP 44% LPC 35% CPC 19% GPC 1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 NDP 45% LPC 34% CPC 18% GPC 1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 NDP 46% LPC 33% CPC 18% GPC 1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 NDP 44% LPC 34% CPC 19% GPC 1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 NDP 45% LPC 33% CPC 19% GPC 1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 NDP 45% LPC 33% CPC 19% GPC 1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 NDP 45% LPC 32% CPC 20% GPC 1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 NDP 44% LPC 33% CPC 20% GPC 1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 NDP 44% LPC 34% CPC 19% GPC 1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 NDP 44% LPC 33% CPC 20% GPC 1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 NDP 44% LPC 33% CPC 20% GPC 1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 NDP 44% LPC 33% CPC 20% GPC 1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 NDP 44% LPC 33% CPC 20% GPC 1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 NDP 44% LPC 33% CPC 20% GPC 1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 NDP 45% LPC 32% CPC 20% GPC 1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 NDP 45% LPC 33% CPC 19% GPC 1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 NDP 45% LPC 33% CPC 19% GPC 1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 NDP 46% LPC 32% CPC 19% GPC 1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 NDP 46% LPC 32% CPC 19% GPC 1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 NDP 44% LPC 33% CPC 20% GPC 1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 NDP 44% LPC 32% CPC 21% GPC 1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 NDP 43% LPC 33% CPC 21% GPC 1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 NDP 43% LPC 32% CPC 21% GPC 3% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 NDP 43% LPC 32% CPC 21% GPC 3% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 NDP 43% LPC 32% CPC 20% GPC 3% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 NDP 43% LPC 33% CPC 20% GPC 3% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 NDP 43% LPC 34% CPC 19% GPC 3% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 NDP 40% LPC 35% CPC 20% GPC 3% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 NDP 39% LPC 36% CPC 20% GPC 2% 2026-02-08

Odds of winning | Winnipeg Centre

LPC 35% CPC <1% NDP 65% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP February 8, 2026 2025-04-26 NDP 57% LPC 43% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 NDP 55% LPC 45% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 NDP 51% LPC 49% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 NDP 79% LPC 21% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 NDP 80% LPC 20% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 NDP 78% LPC 22% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 NDP 76% LPC 24% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 NDP 71% LPC 29% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 NDP 75% LPC 25% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 NDP 81% LPC 19% CPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 NDP 78% LPC 22% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 NDP 78% LPC 22% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 NDP 76% LPC 24% CPC <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 NDP 82% LPC 18% CPC <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 NDP 84% LPC 16% CPC <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 NDP 89% LPC 11% CPC <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 NDP 92% LPC 8% CPC <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 NDP 97% LPC 3% CPC <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 NDP 92% LPC 8% CPC <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 NDP 96% LPC 4% CPC <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 NDP 96% LPC 4% CPC <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 NDP 97% LPC 3% CPC <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 NDP 94% LPC 6% CPC <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 NDP 92% LPC 8% CPC <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 NDP 93% LPC 7% CPC <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 NDP 95% LPC 5% CPC <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 NDP 94% LPC 6% CPC <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 NDP 95% LPC 5% CPC <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 NDP 96% LPC 4% CPC <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 NDP 97% LPC 3% CPC <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 NDP 96% LPC 4% CPC <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 NDP 97% LPC 3% CPC <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 NDP 97% LPC 3% CPC <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 NDP 96% LPC 4% CPC <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 NDP 93% LPC 7% CPC <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 NDP 95% LPC 5% CPC <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 NDP 93% LPC 7% CPC <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 NDP 94% LPC 6% CPC <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 NDP 94% LPC 6% CPC <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 NDP 93% LPC 7% CPC <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 NDP 93% LPC 7% CPC <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 NDP 91% LPC 9% CPC <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 NDP 77% LPC 23% CPC <1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 NDP 65% LPC 35% CPC <1% 2026-02-08


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Demographic data | Winnipeg Centre

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 78.8% English 8.2% Tagalog 1.0% Portuguese 0.9% Punjabi 0.9% Vietnamese 0.7% Arabic 0.7% SomaliWinnipeg CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 16.1% No diploma 27.8% High school 5.6% Trade 18.0% College / Cégep 2.7% Some university 21.5% Bachelor's 8.2% PostgraduateWinnipeg CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 58.0% Not visible minority 42.0% Visible minority 18.9% Filipino 9.7% Black 3.9% South Asian 2.6% Southeast Asian 1.6% Chinese 1.5% Latin AmericanWinnipeg CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 39.2% No Religion 26.1% Catholic 9.2% Christian (n.o.s.) 4.5% Muslim 2.6% Orthodox 2.5% Other Christian 2.2% United Church 2.0% AnglicanWinnipeg CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 61.6% Renter 38.4% OwnerWinnipeg CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 56.5% Employed 36.2% Not in labour force 7.3% UnemployedWinnipeg CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 79.1% Non-Indigenous 20.9% Indigenous identity 12.9% First Nations 7.3% Metis 0.4% Multiple 0.2% Others 0.1% InukWinnipeg CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 66.4% Car / truck / van 17.6% Public transit 11.0% Walking 2.9% Bicycle 2.1% OtherWinnipeg CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.