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Winnipeg Centre


MP: Leah Gazan (NDP)

Latest projection: June 8, 2025
NDP leaning

Recent electoral history | Winnipeg Centre


2019 2021 2025 Proj. NDP 40% ± 9% 41.1% 49.7% 39.4% LPC 35% ± 9% 33.7% 29.0% 35.4% CPC 22% ± 7% 17.5% 12.8% 22.3% GPC 1% ± 2% 5.2% 2.4% 1.1% PPC 1% ± 2% 1.5% 4.3% 1.1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Winnipeg-Centre


Winnipeg Centre 40% ± 9%▲ NDP 35% ± 9% LPC 22% ± 7% CPC NDP 2025 39.4% 338Canada vote projection | June 8, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Winnipeg Centre 75%▲ NDP 25%▼ LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | June 8, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Winnipeg Centre

LPC 35% ± 9% CPC 22% ± 7% NDP 40% ± 9% Popular vote projection % | Winnipeg Centre 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 8, 2025 2025-01-12 NDP 48% LPC 24% CPC 20% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 NDP 48% LPC 25% CPC 20% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 NDP 48% LPC 25% CPC 19% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 NDP 47% LPC 26% CPC 19% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 NDP 46% LPC 29% CPC 18% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 NDP 42% LPC 33% CPC 18% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 NDP 39% LPC 36% CPC 18% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 NDP 42% LPC 34% CPC 16% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 NDP 42% LPC 34% CPC 16% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 41% LPC 36% CPC 15% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 42% NDP 36% CPC 15% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 41% NDP 38% CPC 15% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 41% NDP 39% CPC 14% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 41% NDP 39% CPC 14% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 41% NDP 39% CPC 15% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 41% NDP 38% CPC 15% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 41% NDP 39% CPC 15% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 41% NDP 38% CPC 15% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 41% NDP 39% CPC 15% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 NDP 40% LPC 40% CPC 15% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 NDP 41% LPC 40% CPC 14% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 NDP 41% LPC 40% CPC 14% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 NDP 42% LPC 40% CPC 14% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 NDP 45% LPC 38% CPC 14% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 NDP 46% LPC 37% CPC 14% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 NDP 46% LPC 37% CPC 13% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 NDP 46% LPC 37% CPC 13% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 NDP 46% LPC 37% CPC 13% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 NDP 44% LPC 39% CPC 14% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 NDP 43% LPC 39% CPC 14% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 NDP 43% LPC 39% CPC 14% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 NDP 43% LPC 40% CPC 14% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 NDP 42% LPC 40% CPC 14% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 NDP 42% LPC 40% CPC 14% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 NDP 41% LPC 40% CPC 14% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 NDP 41% LPC 40% CPC 14% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 NDP 41% LPC 40% CPC 14% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 NDP 41% LPC 40% CPC 14% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 NDP 41% LPC 40% CPC 14% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 NDP 41% LPC 40% CPC 14% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 NDP 42% LPC 40% CPC 14% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 NDP 42% LPC 40% CPC 14% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 NDP 41% LPC 40% CPC 13% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 NDP 41% LPC 41% CPC 13% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 NDP 41% LPC 41% CPC 13% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 NDP 41% LPC 41% CPC 13% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 NDP 41% LPC 40% CPC 14% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 NDP 41% LPC 40% CPC 14% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 NDP 41% LPC 40% CPC 14% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 NDP 41% LPC 40% CPC 14% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 NDP 40% LPC 40% CPC 14% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 NDP 39% LPC 35% CPC 22% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 NDP 40% LPC 35% CPC 22% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 NDP 39% LPC 35% CPC 22% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 NDP 39% LPC 35% CPC 22% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 NDP 39% LPC 35% CPC 22% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 NDP 40% LPC 35% CPC 22% 2025-06-08 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Winnipeg Centre

LPC 25% CPC <1% NDP 75% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 8, 2025 2025-01-12 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 NDP 99% LPC 1% CPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 NDP 88% LPC 12% CPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 NDP 68% LPC 32% CPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 NDP 87% LPC 13% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 NDP 85% LPC 15% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 76% LPC 24% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 82% NDP 18% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 63% NDP 37% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 61% NDP 39% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 63% NDP 37% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 64% NDP 36% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 65% NDP 35% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 62% NDP 38% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 64% NDP 36% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 60% NDP 40% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 NDP 51% LPC 49% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 NDP 53% LPC 47% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 NDP 59% LPC 41% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 NDP 61% LPC 39% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 NDP 82% LPC 18% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 NDP 89% LPC 11% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 NDP 90% LPC 10% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 NDP 90% LPC 10% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 NDP 87% LPC 13% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 NDP 74% LPC 26% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 NDP 71% LPC 29% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 NDP 71% LPC 29% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 NDP 64% LPC 36% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 NDP 61% LPC 39% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 NDP 63% LPC 37% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 NDP 55% LPC 45% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 NDP 55% LPC 45% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 NDP 55% LPC 45% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 NDP 55% LPC 45% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 NDP 55% LPC 45% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 NDP 57% LPC 43% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 NDP 59% LPC 41% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 NDP 62% LPC 38% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 NDP 54% LPC 46% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 NDP 51% LPC 49% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 NDP 51% LPC 49% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 NDP 51% LPC 49% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 NDP 56% LPC 44% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 NDP 57% LPC 43% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 NDP 57% LPC 43% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 NDP 55% LPC 45% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 NDP 51% LPC 49% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 NDP 79% LPC 21% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 NDP 80% LPC 20% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 NDP 78% LPC 22% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 NDP 76% LPC 24% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 NDP 71% LPC 29% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 NDP 75% LPC 25% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader