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Winnipeg Centre



Latest projection: April 12, 2025
Toss up LPC/NDP

Candidates | Winnipeg Centre


Liberal Rahul Walia
Conservative Thomas Bambrick
NDP Leah Gazan*
Green Gary Gervais
PPC Donald Grant
Animal Protection Debra Wall

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Winnipeg Centre 41% ± 9%▼ NDP 40% ± 9% LPC 14% ± 6% CPC NDP 2021 49.7% 338Canada vote projection | April 12, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Winnipeg Centre 55%▼ NDP 45%▲ LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | April 12, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Winnipeg Centre

LPC 40% ± 9% CPC 14% ± 6% NDP 41% ± 9% Popular vote projection % | Winnipeg Centre 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 12, 2025 2025-03-09 NDP 42% LPC 34% CPC 16% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 41% LPC 36% CPC 15% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 42% NDP 36% CPC 15% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 41% NDP 38% CPC 15% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 41% NDP 39% CPC 14% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 41% NDP 39% CPC 14% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 41% NDP 39% CPC 15% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 41% NDP 38% CPC 15% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 41% NDP 39% CPC 15% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 41% NDP 38% CPC 15% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 41% NDP 39% CPC 15% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 NDP 40% LPC 40% CPC 15% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 NDP 41% LPC 40% CPC 14% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 NDP 41% LPC 40% CPC 14% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 NDP 42% LPC 40% CPC 14% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 NDP 45% LPC 38% CPC 14% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 NDP 46% LPC 37% CPC 14% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 NDP 46% LPC 37% CPC 13% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 NDP 46% LPC 37% CPC 13% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 NDP 46% LPC 37% CPC 13% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 NDP 44% LPC 39% CPC 14% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 NDP 43% LPC 39% CPC 14% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 NDP 43% LPC 39% CPC 14% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 NDP 43% LPC 40% CPC 14% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 NDP 42% LPC 40% CPC 14% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 NDP 42% LPC 40% CPC 14% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 NDP 41% LPC 40% CPC 14% 2025-04-12 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Winnipeg Centre

LPC 45% NDP 55% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP April 12, 2025 2025-03-09 NDP 85% LPC 15% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 76% LPC 24% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 82% NDP 18% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 63% NDP 37% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 61% NDP 39% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 63% NDP 37% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 64% NDP 36% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 65% NDP 35% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 62% NDP 38% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 64% NDP 36% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 60% NDP 40% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 NDP 51% LPC 49% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 NDP 53% LPC 47% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 NDP 59% LPC 41% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 NDP 61% LPC 39% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 NDP 82% LPC 18% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 NDP 89% LPC 11% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 NDP 90% LPC 10% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 NDP 90% LPC 10% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 NDP 87% LPC 13% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 NDP 74% LPC 26% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 NDP 71% LPC 29% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 NDP 71% LPC 29% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 NDP 64% LPC 36% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 NDP 61% LPC 39% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 NDP 63% LPC 37% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 NDP 55% LPC 45% 2025-04-12 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Winnipeg Centre



2019 2021 Proj. NDP 41.1% 49.7% 41% ± 9% LPC 33.7% 29.0% 40% ± 9% CPC 17.5% 12.8% 14% ± 6% GPC 5.2% 2.4% 2% ± 2% PPC 1.5% 4.3% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.