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Calgary Confederation

Latest update: January 11, 2026
L
MP: Corey Hogan
Alberta
Toss up LPC/CPC

Recent electoral history | Calgary Confederation


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 46% ± 7% 22.4% 27.9% 48.1% CPC 44% ± 7% 55.0% 45.7% 46.3% NDP 6% ± 3% 11.4% 17.7% 4.1% GPC 2% ± 2% 8.7% 3.7% 0.6% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.8% 4.6% 0.4%

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338Canada Calgary Confederation projection

Latest update: January 11, 2026

338Canada projection for Calgary Confederation


Calgary Confederation 39% 53% 46% ± 7% LPC 37% 51% 44% ± 7% CPC 3% 10% 6% ± 3% NDP LPC 2025 48.1% 338Canada vote projection | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Calgary Confederation 63%▲ LPC 37%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Calgary Confederation

LPC 46% ± 7% CPC 44% ± 7% NDP 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Calgary Confederation 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC IND January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 45% LPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 45% CPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 45% CPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 48% CPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 48% CPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 48% CPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 48% CPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 50% CPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 52% CPC 42% NDP 4% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 52% CPC 42% NDP 4% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 51% CPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 51% CPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 51% CPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 51% CPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 50% CPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 49% CPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 48% CPC 45% NDP 5% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 48% CPC 45% NDP 5% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 48% CPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 48% CPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 48% CPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 48% CPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 47% CPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 47% CPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 48% CPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 48% CPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 49% CPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 49% CPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 48% CPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 47% CPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 45% CPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 45% CPC 44% NDP 6% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 46% CPC 44% NDP 6% 2026-01-11

Odds of winning | Calgary Confederation

LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2026-01-11