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Canada

Calgary Confederation



Latest projection: April 14, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC

Candidates | Calgary Confederation


Liberal Corey Hogan
Conservative Jeremy Nixon
NDP Keira Gunn
Green Richard Willott
PPC Artyom Ovsepyan
Marxist-Leninist Kevan Hunter
Canadian Future Jeff Marsh

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Calgary Confederation 45% ± 8% LPC 44% ± 8% CPC 5% ± 4% NDP 3% ± 2% GPC CPC 2021 45.7% 338Canada vote projection | April 14, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Calgary Confederation 51%▲ LPC 49%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 14, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Calgary Confederation

LPC 45% ± 8% CPC 44% ± 8% NDP 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Calgary Confederation 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 14, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 50% LPC 27% NDP 12% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 45% LPC 33% NDP 11% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 8% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 42% LPC 41% NDP 8% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 42% LPC 41% NDP 8% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 42% LPC 41% NDP 8% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 8% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 8% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 7% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 7% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 7% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 44% LPC 40% NDP 7% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 44% LPC 40% NDP 7% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 44% LPC 40% NDP 7% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 45% LPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 45% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 45% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 45% LPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 45% LPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 45% LPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 45% LPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 47% LPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 47% LPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 47% LPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 45% LPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 45% LPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 45% LPC 45% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 45% CPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 45% CPC 44% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Calgary Confederation

LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 14, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Calgary Confederation



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 22.4% 27.9% 45% ± 8% CPC 55.0% 45.7% 44% ± 8% NDP 11.4% 17.7% 5% ± 4% GPC 8.7% 3.7% 3% ± 2% PPC 1.8% 4.6% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.