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Canada

Vancouver Granville



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
CPC likely
Vancouver Granville 38% ± 7% CPC 29% ± 7%▲ NDP 26% ± 6% LPC 3% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 37.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vancouver Granville 95%▼ CPC 4%▲ NDP 1% LPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Vancouver Granville

LPC 26% ± 6% CPC 38% ± 7% NDP 29% ± 7% GPC 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Vancouver Granville 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 41% NDP 26% LPC 25% GPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 40% NDP 27% LPC 26% GPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 39% NDP 27% LPC 26% GPC 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 38% NDP 28% LPC 27% GPC 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 38% NDP 28% LPC 27% GPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 37% LPC 28% NDP 28% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 36% NDP 29% LPC 28% GPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 35% NDP 29% LPC 28% GPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 35% NDP 29% LPC 28% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 35% NDP 29% LPC 28% GPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 35% NDP 29% LPC 28% GPC 4% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 35% NDP 29% LPC 28% GPC 4% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 35% NDP 29% LPC 28% GPC 3% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 35% NDP 29% LPC 28% GPC 3% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 35% NDP 29% LPC 28% GPC 3% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 35% NDP 29% LPC 28% GPC 3% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 36% LPC 29% NDP 27% GPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 35% LPC 30% NDP 27% GPC 4% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 36% LPC 30% NDP 25% GPC 3% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 36% LPC 31% NDP 25% GPC 3% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 36% LPC 30% NDP 26% GPC 3% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 37% NDP 28% LPC 28% GPC 3% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 37% NDP 28% LPC 28% GPC 3% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 36% LPC 28% NDP 28% GPC 3% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 35% LPC 29% NDP 28% GPC 3% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 36% LPC 28% NDP 28% GPC 3% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 36% LPC 29% NDP 27% GPC 3% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 36% LPC 30% NDP 26% GPC 3% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 37% LPC 28% NDP 27% GPC 3% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 38% LPC 28% NDP 27% GPC 3% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 38% NDP 28% LPC 26% GPC 3% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 38% NDP 29% LPC 26% GPC 3% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Vancouver Granville

LPC 1% CPC 95% NDP 4% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 98% NDP 1% LPC 1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 97% NDP 2% LPC 1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 96% NDP 2% LPC 2% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 95% LPC 3% NDP 2% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 90% NDP 7% LPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 86% NDP 9% LPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 87% NDP 8% LPC 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 84% NDP 9% LPC 7% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 84% NDP 9% LPC 7% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 84% NDP 9% LPC 7% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 79% NDP 12% LPC 9% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 85% NDP 9% LPC 5% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 82% NDP 13% LPC 5% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 83% NDP 9% LPC 7% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 89% LPC 9% NDP 2% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 85% LPC 12% NDP 3% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP 1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 82% LPC 17% NDP 1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 88% LPC 11% NDP 1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 95% NDP 3% LPC 2% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 93% NDP 4% LPC 3% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 88% LPC 6% NDP 6% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 85% LPC 8% NDP 7% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 88% LPC 6% NDP 6% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 91% LPC 7% NDP 2% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 89% LPC 10% NDP 1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 94% LPC 4% NDP 2% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 96% LPC 2% NDP 1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 96% NDP 3% LPC 1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 95% NDP 4% LPC 1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Vancouver Granville



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 31.5% 37.2% 26% ± 6% NDP 14.9% 32.9% 29% ± 7% CPC 21.1% 24.7% 38% ± 7% GPC 6.4% 2.7% 3% ± 3% PPC 0.8% 2.4% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.