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Canada

Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan


MP elect: Garnett Genuis (CPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan


Liberal Tanya Holm
Conservative Garnett Genuis*
NDP Christopher Jones
Green Randall Emmons
PPC Jay Sobel
Canadian Future Mark Horseman

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan 65% ± 0%▲ CPC 27% ± 0%▲ LPC 5% ± 0%▼ NDP CPC 2025 65.1% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan

LPC 27% ± 0% CPC 65% ± 0% NDP 5% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 62% NDP 18% LPC 13% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 59% LPC 17% NDP 16% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 60% LPC 21% NDP 13% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 59% LPC 21% NDP 13% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 59% LPC 22% NDP 14% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 59% LPC 21% NDP 14% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 59% LPC 21% NDP 14% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 59% LPC 21% NDP 14% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 59% LPC 22% NDP 12% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 59% LPC 22% NDP 12% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 59% LPC 22% NDP 12% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 61% LPC 21% NDP 12% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 61% LPC 21% NDP 11% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 62% LPC 21% NDP 11% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 62% LPC 21% NDP 11% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 63% LPC 21% NDP 10% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 64% LPC 21% NDP 10% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 64% LPC 21% NDP 10% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 64% LPC 21% NDP 10% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 64% LPC 21% NDP 9% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 64% LPC 21% NDP 9% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 66% LPC 21% NDP 9% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 66% LPC 21% NDP 9% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 68% LPC 21% NDP 9% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 63% LPC 19% NDP 8% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 63% LPC 19% NDP 8% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 63% LPC 20% NDP 8% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 63% LPC 20% NDP 8% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 63% LPC 20% NDP 8% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 63% LPC 20% NDP 8% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 63% LPC 20% NDP 8% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 63% LPC 20% NDP 8% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 63% LPC 20% NDP 9% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 63% LPC 20% NDP 9% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 64% LPC 19% NDP 8% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 65% LPC 19% NDP 8% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 64% LPC 19% NDP 9% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 64% LPC 19% NDP 9% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 64% LPC 19% NDP 9% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 64% LPC 19% NDP 9% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 64% LPC 19% NDP 9% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 64% LPC 20% NDP 9% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 64% LPC 20% NDP 8% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 65% LPC 27% NDP 5% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 65% ± 0% 73.4% 57.6% 65.1% LPC 27% ± 0% 10.1% 12.2% 26.9% NDP 5% ± 0% 12.1% 20.6% 5.0% GPC 2% ± 0% 2.2% 1.0% 1.8% PPC 1% ± 0% 1.8% 7.0% 0.9% IND 0% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.