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Canada

Delta


MP: Jill McKnight (LPC)

Latest projection: June 1, 2025
LPC leaning

Recent electoral history | Delta


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 52% ± 8% 41.2% 42.5% 51.8% CPC 43% ± 8% 33.0% 33.5% 43.2% NDP 4% ± 3% 16.6% 18.4% 4.4% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.7% 2.5% 0.6% GPC 0% ± 0% 6.1% 2.2% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.



Delta 52% ± 8% LPC 43% ± 8% CPC 4% ± 3% NDP LPC 2025 51.8% 338Canada vote projection | June 1, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Delta 89%▼ LPC 11%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 1, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Delta

LPC 52% ± 8% CPC 43% ± 8% NDP 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Delta 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 51% LPC 29% NDP 16% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 51% LPC 29% NDP 15% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 51% LPC 30% NDP 15% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 50% LPC 31% NDP 14% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 48% LPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 45% LPC 38% NDP 13% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 12% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 44% CPC 40% NDP 12% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 45% CPC 39% NDP 12% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 46% CPC 40% NDP 10% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 51% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 52% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 52% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 52% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 53% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 53% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 55% CPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 55% CPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 55% CPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 55% CPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 56% CPC 36% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 57% CPC 36% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 57% CPC 36% NDP 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 59% CPC 35% NDP 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 59% CPC 34% NDP 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 60% CPC 34% NDP 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 60% CPC 34% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 60% CPC 34% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 59% CPC 35% NDP 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 55% CPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 55% CPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 54% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 55% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 55% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 54% CPC 38% NDP 7% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 53% CPC 39% NDP 7% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 53% CPC 39% NDP 7% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 53% CPC 39% NDP 7% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 53% CPC 40% NDP 7% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 53% CPC 40% NDP 7% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 53% CPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 50% CPC 41% NDP 8% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 50% CPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 49% CPC 43% NDP 8% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 50% CPC 42% NDP 7% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 50% CPC 42% NDP 7% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 50% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 50% CPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 50% CPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 48% CPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 48% CPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 51% CPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 51% CPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 51% CPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 52% CPC 43% NDP 4% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 52% CPC 43% NDP 4% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Delta

LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader