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Canada


Delta (federal)


MP: Carla Qualtrough (LPC)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

CPC likely gain
Delta 44% ± 7% 36% ± 7% 15% ± 5% 4% ± 3% LPC 2021 42.26% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Delta 91%▲ 9%▼ <1% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Delta

LPC 36% ± 7% CPC 44% ± 7% NDP 15% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Delta 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP

Odds of winning | Delta

LPC 9% CPC 91% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Delta



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 49.1% 41.2% 42.26% 36% ± 7% CPC 32.8% 33.0% 33.83% 44% ± 7% NDP 14.9% 16.3% 18.32% 15% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 1.8% 2.47% 1% ± 1% GPC 3.2% 6.3% 2.38% 4% ± 3% IND 0.0% 1.5% 0.74% 0% ± 0%