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Canada

Delta



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
CPC safe
Delta 49% ± 7% CPC 29% ± 6% LPC 16% ± 5% NDP 3% ± 2% GPC LPC 2021 42.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Delta >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Delta

LPC 29% ± 6% CPC 49% ± 7% NDP 16% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Delta 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 53% LPC 28% NDP 14% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 52% LPC 28% NDP 14% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 51% LPC 29% NDP 14% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 50% LPC 30% NDP 15% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 49% LPC 31% NDP 15% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 49% LPC 31% NDP 15% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 48% LPC 31% NDP 16% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 47% LPC 31% NDP 16% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 47% LPC 31% NDP 16% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 46% LPC 31% NDP 16% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 46% LPC 32% NDP 16% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 46% LPC 31% NDP 16% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 46% LPC 32% NDP 16% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 47% LPC 31% NDP 16% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 46% LPC 31% NDP 16% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 46% LPC 32% NDP 16% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 47% LPC 32% NDP 15% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 46% LPC 33% NDP 15% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 47% LPC 33% NDP 14% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 46% LPC 34% NDP 14% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 47% LPC 33% NDP 15% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 48% LPC 30% NDP 15% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 48% LPC 31% NDP 16% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 47% LPC 31% NDP 16% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 46% LPC 32% NDP 16% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 47% LPC 31% NDP 16% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 47% LPC 32% NDP 15% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 47% LPC 33% NDP 15% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 48% LPC 31% NDP 15% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 49% LPC 30% NDP 15% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 49% LPC 29% NDP 16% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 49% LPC 29% NDP 16% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Delta

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Delta



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 41.2% 42.5% 29% ± 6% CPC 33.0% 33.5% 49% ± 7% NDP 16.6% 18.4% 16% ± 5% PPC 1.7% 2.5% 1% ± 2% GPC 6.1% 2.2% 3% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.