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Canada

Delta


MP elect: Jill McKnight (LPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
LPC likely

Candidates | Delta


Liberal Jill McKnight
Conservative Jessy Sahota
NDP Jason McCormick
PPC Natasa Sirotic

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Delta 51% ± 0%▲ LPC 43% ± 0%▼ CPC 5% ± 0%▼ NDP LPC 2025 51.1% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Delta 98%▲ LPC 2%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Delta

LPC 51% ± 0% CPC 43% ± 0% NDP 5% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Delta 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 45% CPC 39% NDP 12% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 46% CPC 40% NDP 10% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 51% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 52% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 52% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 52% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 53% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 53% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 55% CPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 55% CPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 55% CPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 55% CPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 56% CPC 36% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 57% CPC 36% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 57% CPC 36% NDP 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 59% CPC 35% NDP 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 59% CPC 34% NDP 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 60% CPC 34% NDP 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 60% CPC 34% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 60% CPC 34% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 59% CPC 35% NDP 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 55% CPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 55% CPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 54% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 55% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 55% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 54% CPC 38% NDP 7% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 53% CPC 39% NDP 7% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 53% CPC 39% NDP 7% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 53% CPC 39% NDP 7% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 53% CPC 40% NDP 7% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 53% CPC 40% NDP 7% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 53% CPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 50% CPC 41% NDP 8% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 50% CPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 49% CPC 43% NDP 8% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 50% CPC 42% NDP 7% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 50% CPC 42% NDP 7% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 50% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 50% CPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 50% CPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 48% CPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 48% CPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 51% CPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Delta

LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Delta



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 51% ± 0% 41.2% 42.5% 51.1% CPC 43% ± 0% 33.0% 33.5% 43.0% NDP 5% ± 0% 16.6% 18.4% 5.4% PPC 1% ± 0% 1.7% 2.5% 0.6% GPC 0% ± 0% 6.1% 2.2% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.