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Canada


Delta (federal)


MP: Carla Qualtrough (LPC)


Latest projection: September 24, 2023

Toss up LPC/CPC
Delta 41% ± 7%▼ 38% ± 7% 15% ± 5% 4% ± 3% LPC 2021 42.26% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Delta 68%▼ 32%▲ <1% Odds of winning | September 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Delta

LPC 38% ± 7% CPC 41% ± 7% NDP 15% ± 5% GPC 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Delta 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Delta

LPC 32% CPC 68% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Delta



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 49.1% 41.2% 42.26% 38% ± 7% CPC 32.8% 33.0% 33.83% 41% ± 7% NDP 14.9% 16.3% 18.32% 15% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 1.8% 2.47% 1% ± 1% GPC 3.2% 6.3% 2.38% 4% ± 3% IND 0.0% 1.5% 0.74% 0% ± 0%