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Canada

Drummond


Latest projection: September 29, 2024
BQ safe
Drummond 46% ± 8% BQ 26% ± 6% CPC 15% ± 5%▲ NDP 11% ± 4% LPC BQ 2021 46.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 29, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Drummond >99% BQ <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | September 29, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Drummond

LPC 11% ± 4% CPC 26% ± 6% NDP 15% ± 5% BQ 46% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Drummond 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ September 29, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 46% CPC 28% NDP 13% LPC 11% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 49% CPC 27% NDP 13% LPC 11% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 48% CPC 26% NDP 13% LPC 11% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 45% CPC 28% NDP 14% LPC 12% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 44% CPC 29% NDP 14% LPC 12% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 44% CPC 29% NDP 14% LPC 12% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 46% CPC 28% NDP 14% LPC 11% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 46% CPC 28% NDP 14% LPC 10% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 46% CPC 27% NDP 14% LPC 10% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 46% CPC 27% NDP 14% LPC 11% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 46% CPC 27% NDP 13% LPC 11% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ 46% CPC 27% NDP 13% LPC 11% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ 46% CPC 27% NDP 14% LPC 11% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ 46% CPC 27% NDP 14% LPC 11% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ 45% CPC 27% NDP 14% LPC 11% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 BQ 45% CPC 27% NDP 14% LPC 12% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 BQ 44% CPC 27% NDP 14% LPC 12% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 BQ 45% CPC 26% NDP 14% LPC 12% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ 46% CPC 26% NDP 14% LPC 11% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 46% CPC 26% NDP 14% LPC 11% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 46% CPC 26% NDP 15% LPC 11% 2024-09-29

Odds of winning | Drummond

LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ September 29, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-29

Recent electoral history | Drummond



2019 2021 Proj. BQ 44.8% 46.6% 46% ± 8% LPC 17.4% 18.8% 11% ± 4% CPC 16.6% 17.9% 26% ± 6% NDP 15.9% 11.2% 15% ± 5% GPC 3.4% 0.0% 1% ± 1% PPC 1.0% 0.0% 0% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.