logo
logo
Canada

Essex



Latest projection: April 21, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Essex


Liberal Christopher Sutton
Conservative Chris Lewis*
NDP Lori Wightman
PPC Jason A. E. Henry

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Essex 54% ± 8%▼ CPC 28% ± 7% LPC 14% ± 5% NDP 3% ± 4% PPC CPC 2021 41.0% 338Canada vote projection | April 21, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Essex >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 21, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Essex

LPC 28% ± 7% CPC 54% ± 8% NDP 14% ± 5% PPC 3% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Essex 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP PPC April 21, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 52% NDP 22% LPC 17% PPC 5% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 52% NDP 21% LPC 18% PPC 5% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 51% LPC 20% NDP 20% PPC 5% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 51% LPC 21% NDP 20% PPC 5% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 51% LPC 21% NDP 20% PPC 5% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 51% LPC 21% NDP 20% PPC 5% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 51% LPC 21% NDP 20% PPC 4% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 51% LPC 21% NDP 20% PPC 4% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 51% LPC 24% NDP 17% PPC 4% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 51% LPC 24% NDP 17% PPC 4% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 51% LPC 25% NDP 17% PPC 4% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 51% LPC 26% NDP 16% PPC 4% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 51% LPC 26% NDP 16% PPC 4% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 52% LPC 26% NDP 15% PPC 4% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 53% LPC 26% NDP 15% PPC 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 53% LPC 27% NDP 14% PPC 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 53% LPC 27% NDP 14% PPC 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 53% LPC 28% NDP 14% PPC 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 52% LPC 28% NDP 14% PPC 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 52% LPC 28% NDP 14% PPC 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 52% LPC 28% NDP 14% PPC 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 53% LPC 28% NDP 14% PPC 3% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 53% LPC 28% NDP 14% PPC 3% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 53% LPC 28% NDP 14% PPC 3% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 53% LPC 28% NDP 14% PPC 3% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 53% LPC 28% NDP 14% PPC 3% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 52% LPC 28% NDP 14% PPC 3% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 53% LPC 28% NDP 14% PPC 3% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 53% LPC 28% NDP 14% PPC 3% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 53% LPC 29% NDP 15% PPC 3% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 53% LPC 29% NDP 15% PPC 3% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 54% LPC 28% NDP 14% PPC 3% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 55% LPC 28% NDP 14% PPC 3% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 55% LPC 28% NDP 14% PPC 3% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 55% LPC 28% NDP 14% PPC 3% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 54% LPC 28% NDP 14% PPC 3% 2025-04-21 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Essex

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 21, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-21 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Essex



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 41.6% 41.0% 54% ± 8% LPC 19.0% 15.5% 28% ± 7% NDP 34.3% 31.7% 14% ± 5% PPC 1.9% 10.2% 3% ± 4% GPC 3.2% 1.2% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.