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Canada

Essex


MP: Chris Lewis (CPC)

Latest projection: July 6, 2025
CPC likely

Recent electoral history | Essex


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 56% ± 8% 41.6% 41.0% 57.5% LPC 37% ± 7% 19.0% 15.5% 36.7% NDP 6% ± 4% 34.3% 31.7% 4.8% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.9% 10.2% 1.1% GPC 0% ± 0% 3.2% 1.2% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Essex


Essex 56% ± 8% CPC 37% ± 7% LPC 6% ± 4%▲ NDP CPC 2025 57.5% 338Canada vote projection | July 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Essex >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Essex

LPC 37% ± 7% CPC 56% ± 8% NDP 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Essex 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 55% NDP 31% LPC 6% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 55% NDP 30% LPC 6% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 55% NDP 30% LPC 6% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 52% NDP 29% LPC 10% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 52% NDP 27% LPC 12% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 52% NDP 25% LPC 15% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 52% NDP 23% LPC 16% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 52% NDP 22% LPC 17% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 52% NDP 22% LPC 17% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 52% NDP 21% LPC 18% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 51% LPC 20% NDP 20% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 51% LPC 21% NDP 20% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 51% LPC 21% NDP 20% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 51% LPC 21% NDP 20% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 51% LPC 21% NDP 20% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 51% LPC 21% NDP 20% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 51% LPC 24% NDP 17% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 51% LPC 24% NDP 17% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 51% LPC 25% NDP 17% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 51% LPC 26% NDP 16% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 51% LPC 26% NDP 16% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 52% LPC 26% NDP 15% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 53% LPC 26% NDP 15% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 53% LPC 27% NDP 14% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 53% LPC 27% NDP 14% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 53% LPC 28% NDP 14% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 52% LPC 28% NDP 14% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 52% LPC 28% NDP 14% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 52% LPC 28% NDP 14% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 53% LPC 28% NDP 14% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 53% LPC 28% NDP 14% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 53% LPC 28% NDP 14% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 53% LPC 28% NDP 14% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 53% LPC 28% NDP 14% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 52% LPC 28% NDP 14% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 53% LPC 28% NDP 14% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 53% LPC 28% NDP 14% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 53% LPC 29% NDP 15% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 53% LPC 29% NDP 15% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 54% LPC 28% NDP 14% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 55% LPC 28% NDP 14% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 55% LPC 28% NDP 14% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 55% LPC 28% NDP 14% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 54% LPC 28% NDP 14% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 54% LPC 29% NDP 14% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 54% LPC 29% NDP 14% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 54% LPC 29% NDP 14% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 54% LPC 29% NDP 14% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 54% LPC 29% NDP 14% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 54% LPC 29% NDP 14% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 55% LPC 29% NDP 13% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 57% LPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 57% LPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 57% LPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 57% LPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 57% LPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 57% LPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 57% LPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 56% LPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 56% LPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 56% LPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Essex

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader