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Recent electoral history | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 47% ± 10% 23.6% 25.2% 45.5% NDP 31% ± 10% 50.2% 42.6% 28.7% CPC 20% ± 8% 20.1% 24.2% 24.1% PPC 1% ± 3% 1.2% 5.0% 1.7% GPC 1% ± 2% 4.8% 3.1% 0.0%

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338Canada Churchill—Keewatinook Aski projection

Latest update: February 8, 2026

Churchill—Keewatinook Aski 36% 57% 47% ± 10% LPC 21% 41% 31% ± 10% NDP 12% 28% 20% ± 8% CPC LPC 2025 45.5% 338Canada vote projection | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Churchill—Keewatinook Aski 97%▲ LPC 3%▼ NDP <1% CPC Odds of winning | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski

LPC 47% ± 10% CPC 20% ± 8% NDP 31% ± 10% Popular vote projection % | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC February 8, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 37% NDP 36% CPC 25% GPC 0% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 37% NDP 36% CPC 25% GPC 0% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 37% NDP 36% CPC 26% GPC 0% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 45% NDP 29% CPC 24% GPC 0% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 45% NDP 29% CPC 24% GPC 0% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 45% NDP 29% CPC 24% GPC 0% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 46% NDP 29% CPC 24% GPC 0% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 45% NDP 29% CPC 24% GPC 0% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 45% NDP 29% CPC 24% GPC 0% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 45% NDP 30% CPC 24% GPC 0% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 46% NDP 30% CPC 23% GPC 0% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 46% NDP 30% CPC 22% GPC 0% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 47% NDP 31% CPC 21% GPC 0% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 47% NDP 31% CPC 21% GPC 0% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 46% NDP 32% CPC 21% GPC 0% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 46% NDP 33% CPC 20% GPC 0% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 45% NDP 33% CPC 20% GPC 0% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 44% NDP 35% CPC 20% GPC 0% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 44% NDP 35% CPC 20% GPC 0% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 42% NDP 36% CPC 20% GPC 0% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 42% NDP 36% CPC 20% GPC 0% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 41% NDP 36% CPC 21% GPC 0% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 43% NDP 35% CPC 21% GPC 0% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 43% NDP 35% CPC 20% GPC 0% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 43% NDP 35% CPC 21% GPC 0% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 42% NDP 35% CPC 21% GPC 0% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 42% NDP 35% CPC 21% GPC 0% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 42% NDP 36% CPC 21% GPC 0% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 42% NDP 36% CPC 21% GPC 0% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 42% NDP 36% CPC 21% GPC 0% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 42% NDP 36% CPC 20% GPC 0% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 42% NDP 37% CPC 20% GPC 0% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 42% NDP 37% CPC 20% GPC 0% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 42% NDP 37% CPC 20% GPC 0% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 42% NDP 36% CPC 20% GPC 0% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 41% NDP 36% CPC 22% GPC 0% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 42% NDP 35% CPC 21% GPC 0% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 41% NDP 35% CPC 21% GPC 1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 41% NDP 35% CPC 21% GPC 1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 41% NDP 35% CPC 21% GPC 1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC 42% NDP 35% CPC 21% GPC 1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC 43% NDP 35% CPC 20% GPC 1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC 45% NDP 32% CPC 20% GPC 1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC 47% NDP 31% CPC 20% GPC 1% 2026-02-08

Odds of winning | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski

LPC 97% CPC <1% NDP 3% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP February 8, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 57% NDP 41% CPC 1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 57% NDP 42% CPC 1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 55% NDP 43% CPC 1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 99% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 99% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 99% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 99% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 98% NDP 2% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 97% NDP 3% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 96% NDP 3% CPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 97% NDP 3% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 97% NDP 3% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 98% NDP 2% CPC <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 97% NDP 3% CPC <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 96% NDP 4% CPC <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 94% NDP 6% CPC <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 91% NDP 9% CPC <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 86% NDP 14% CPC <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 83% NDP 17% CPC <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 75% NDP 25% CPC <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 75% NDP 25% CPC <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 72% NDP 28% CPC <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 81% NDP 19% CPC <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 84% NDP 16% CPC <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 82% NDP 18% CPC <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 80% NDP 20% CPC <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 79% NDP 21% CPC <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 78% NDP 22% CPC <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 77% NDP 23% CPC <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 74% NDP 26% CPC <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 75% NDP 25% CPC <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 75% NDP 25% CPC <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 71% NDP 29% CPC <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 71% NDP 29% CPC <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 77% NDP 23% CPC <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 74% NDP 26% CPC <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 79% NDP 21% CPC <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 77% NDP 23% CPC <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 77% NDP 23% CPC <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 79% NDP 21% CPC <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC 80% NDP 20% CPC <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC 84% NDP 16% CPC <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC 94% NDP 6% CPC <1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC 97% NDP 3% CPC <1% 2026-02-08


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Demographic data | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 90.2% English 7.3% Algonquian 4.0% Cree 3.0% Oji-Cree 0.6% Athabaskan 0.5% Punjabi 0.5% GujaratiChurchill—Keewatinook AskiSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 33.5% No diploma 28.0% High school 7.5% Trade 15.3% College / Cégep 2.6% Some university 9.8% Bachelor's 3.4% PostgraduateChurchill—Keewatinook AskiSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 96.3% Not visible minority 3.7% Visible minority 2.0% South Asian 0.6% Black 0.4% Filipino 0.2% Chinese 0.1% Arab 0.1% Latin AmericanChurchill—Keewatinook AskiSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 41.4% No Religion 21.0% Catholic 9.7% Anglican 9.4% United Church 5.2% Christian (n.o.s.) 4.2% Indigenous Spirituality 3.2% Pentecostal 1.3% Other ChristianChurchill—Keewatinook AskiSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 40.6% Owner 34.4% Community housing 24.9% RenterChurchill—Keewatinook AskiSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 46.9% Not in labour force 45.5% Employed 7.6% UnemployedChurchill—Keewatinook AskiSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 76.9% Indigenous identity 23.1% Non-Indigenous 70.9% First Nations 5.0% Metis 0.7% Others 0.3% Multiple 0.1% InukChurchill—Keewatinook AskiSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 84.3% Car / truck / van 12.3% Walking 2.4% Other 0.7% Public transit 0.3% BicycleChurchill—Keewatinook AskiSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.