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Canada

Churchill—Keewatinook Aski



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
NDP likely
Churchill—Keewatinook Aski 41% ± 10%▲ NDP 31% ± 9% CPC 21% ± 8% LPC 4% ± 4% GPC NDP 2021 42.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Churchill—Keewatinook Aski 90%▲ NDP 10%▼ CPC <1% LPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski

LPC 21% ± 8% CPC 31% ± 9% NDP 41% ± 10% GPC 4% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 NDP 42% CPC 27% LPC 24% GPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 NDP 41% CPC 27% LPC 24% GPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 NDP 40% CPC 28% LPC 25% GPC 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 NDP 39% CPC 28% LPC 26% GPC 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 NDP 39% CPC 28% LPC 26% GPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 NDP 39% CPC 27% LPC 27% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 39% CPC 27% LPC 27% GPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 NDP 39% CPC 26% LPC 26% GPC 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 NDP 38% LPC 26% CPC 26% GPC 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 NDP 38% LPC 26% CPC 26% GPC 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 NDP 38% CPC 26% LPC 26% GPC 5% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 NDP 38% CPC 26% LPC 26% GPC 5% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 NDP 39% CPC 27% LPC 25% GPC 5% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 NDP 39% CPC 27% LPC 24% GPC 5% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 NDP 40% CPC 26% LPC 25% GPC 5% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 NDP 40% LPC 25% CPC 25% GPC 5% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 NDP 40% LPC 26% CPC 25% GPC 5% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 NDP 41% CPC 25% LPC 25% GPC 5% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 NDP 40% LPC 26% CPC 26% GPC 5% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 NDP 40% CPC 27% LPC 24% GPC 5% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 NDP 42% CPC 28% LPC 22% GPC 5% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 NDP 44% CPC 28% LPC 20% GPC 5% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 NDP 44% CPC 28% LPC 19% GPC 5% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 NDP 44% CPC 28% LPC 19% GPC 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 NDP 44% CPC 29% LPC 20% GPC 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 NDP 43% CPC 29% LPC 20% GPC 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 NDP 42% CPC 30% LPC 21% GPC 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 NDP 41% CPC 30% LPC 21% GPC 4% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 NDP 41% CPC 31% LPC 21% GPC 4% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 NDP 40% CPC 32% LPC 20% GPC 4% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 NDP 40% CPC 31% LPC 21% GPC 4% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 NDP 41% CPC 31% LPC 21% GPC 4% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski

LPC <1% CPC 10% NDP 90% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 NDP 97% CPC 2% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 NDP 96% CPC 3% LPC 1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 NDP 94% CPC 4% LPC 1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 NDP 93% CPC 5% LPC 2% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 NDP 91% CPC 6% LPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 NDP 91% CPC 5% LPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 93% CPC 3% LPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 NDP 93% CPC 3% LPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 NDP 93% LPC 4% CPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 NDP 93% LPC 4% CPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 NDP 92% CPC 4% LPC 4% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 NDP 92% CPC 4% LPC 4% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 NDP 94% CPC 4% LPC 2% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 NDP 95% CPC 4% LPC 1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 NDP 96% CPC 3% LPC 1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 NDP 97% CPC 2% LPC 2% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 NDP 97% LPC 2% CPC 1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 NDP 97% CPC 1% LPC 1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 NDP 96% LPC 2% CPC 2% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 NDP 97% CPC 3% LPC 1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 NDP 97% CPC 3% LPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 NDP 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 NDP 98% CPC 2% LPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 NDP 98% CPC 2% LPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 NDP 98% CPC 2% LPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 NDP 97% CPC 3% LPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 NDP 95% CPC 5% LPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 NDP 93% CPC 7% LPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 NDP 91% CPC 9% LPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 NDP 87% CPC 13% LPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 NDP 88% CPC 12% LPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 NDP 90% CPC 10% LPC <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski



2019 2021 Proj. NDP 50.2% 42.6% 41% ± 10% LPC 23.6% 25.2% 21% ± 8% CPC 20.1% 24.2% 31% ± 9% PPC 1.2% 5.0% 2% ± 3% GPC 4.8% 3.1% 4% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.