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Canada

Churchill—Keewatinook Aski



Latest projection: March 16, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
Churchill—Keewatinook Aski 32% ± 10% NDP 32% ± 10%▲ LPC 28% ± 9%▼ CPC 5% ± 5% GPC NDP 2021 42.6% 338Canada vote projection | March 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Churchill—Keewatinook Aski 46%▲ NDP 40%▲ LPC 14%▼ CPC Odds of winning | March 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski

LPC 32% ± 10% CPC 28% ± 9% NDP 32% ± 10% GPC 5% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC March 16, 2025 2024-10-13 NDP 44% CPC 28% LPC 19% GPC 5% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 NDP 44% CPC 28% LPC 19% GPC 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 NDP 44% CPC 29% LPC 20% GPC 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 NDP 43% CPC 29% LPC 20% GPC 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 NDP 42% CPC 30% LPC 21% GPC 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 NDP 41% CPC 30% LPC 21% GPC 4% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 NDP 41% CPC 31% LPC 21% GPC 4% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 NDP 40% CPC 32% LPC 20% GPC 4% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 NDP 40% CPC 31% LPC 21% GPC 4% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 NDP 41% CPC 31% LPC 21% GPC 4% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 NDP 39% CPC 34% LPC 20% GPC 4% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 NDP 39% CPC 34% LPC 20% GPC 4% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 NDP 39% CPC 34% LPC 19% GPC 4% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 NDP 38% CPC 35% LPC 20% GPC 4% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 NDP 38% CPC 34% LPC 21% GPC 4% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 NDP 38% CPC 34% LPC 21% GPC 4% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 NDP 37% CPC 34% LPC 22% GPC 4% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 NDP 36% CPC 32% LPC 25% GPC 4% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 32% NDP 32% LPC 28% GPC 5% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 33% NDP 30% LPC 30% GPC 5% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 NDP 32% CPC 30% LPC 30% GPC 5% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 NDP 32% CPC 30% LPC 30% GPC 5% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 32% LPC 32% CPC 28% GPC 5% 2025-03-16 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski

LPC 40% CPC 14% NDP 46% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP March 16, 2025 2024-10-13 NDP 98% CPC 2% LPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 NDP 98% CPC 2% LPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 NDP 98% CPC 2% LPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 NDP 97% CPC 3% LPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 NDP 95% CPC 5% LPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 NDP 93% CPC 7% LPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 NDP 91% CPC 9% LPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 NDP 87% CPC 13% LPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 NDP 88% CPC 12% LPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 NDP 90% CPC 10% LPC <1% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 NDP 74% CPC 26% LPC <1% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 NDP 75% CPC 25% LPC <1% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 NDP 75% CPC 25% LPC <1% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 NDP 66% CPC 34% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 NDP 69% CPC 31% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 NDP 70% CPC 30% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 NDP 65% CPC 35% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 NDP 67% CPC 30% LPC 2% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 44% NDP 43% LPC 13% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 48% LPC 26% NDP 26% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 NDP 46% CPC 30% LPC 25% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 NDP 45% CPC 29% LPC 26% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 46% LPC 40% CPC 14% 2025-03-16 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski



2019 2021 Proj. NDP 50.2% 42.6% 32% ± 10% LPC 23.6% 25.2% 32% ± 10% CPC 20.1% 24.2% 28% ± 9% GPC 4.8% 3.1% 5% ± 5% PPC 1.2% 5.0% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.