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Canada

Churchill—Kewatinook Aski


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
NDP likely
Churchill—Kewatinook Aski 38% ± 10% NDP 26% ± 9% CPC 26% ± 9% LPC 5% ± 5% GPC 3% ± 4% PPC NDP 2021 42.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Churchill—Kewatinook Aski 92%▼ NDP 4% CPC 4% LPC Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Churchill—Kewatinook Aski

LPC 26% ± 9% CPC 26% ± 9% NDP 38% ± 10% GPC 5% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Churchill—Kewatinook Aski 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 NDP 42% CPC 27% LPC 24% GPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 NDP 41% CPC 27% LPC 24% GPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 NDP 40% CPC 28% LPC 25% GPC 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 NDP 39% CPC 28% LPC 26% GPC 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 NDP 39% CPC 28% LPC 26% GPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 NDP 39% CPC 27% LPC 27% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 39% CPC 27% LPC 27% GPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 NDP 39% CPC 26% LPC 26% GPC 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 NDP 38% LPC 26% CPC 26% GPC 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 NDP 38% LPC 26% CPC 26% GPC 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 NDP 38% CPC 26% LPC 26% GPC 5% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Churchill—Kewatinook Aski

LPC 4% CPC 4% NDP 92% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 NDP 97% CPC 2% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 NDP 96% CPC 3% LPC 1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 NDP 94% CPC 4% LPC 1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 NDP 93% CPC 5% LPC 2% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 NDP 91% CPC 6% LPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 NDP 91% CPC 5% LPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 93% CPC 3% LPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 NDP 93% CPC 3% LPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 NDP 93% LPC 4% CPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 NDP 93% LPC 4% CPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 NDP 92% CPC 4% LPC 4% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Churchill—Kewatinook Aski



2019 2021 Proj. NDP 50.2% 42.6% 38% ± 10% LPC 23.6% 25.2% 26% ± 9% CPC 20.1% 24.2% 26% ± 9% PPC 1.2% 5.0% 3% ± 4% GPC 4.8% 3.1% 5% ± 5%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.