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Churchill—Keewatinook Aski



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
Toss up LPC/NDP

Candidates | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski


Liberal Rebecca Chartrand
Conservative Lachlan DeNardi
NDP Niki Ashton*
PPC Dylan Young

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Churchill—Keewatinook Aski 37% ± 10%▲ LPC 36% ± 10%▲ NDP 27% ± 9%▲ CPC NDP 2021 42.6% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Churchill—Keewatinook Aski 53% LPC 45%▲ NDP 2% CPC Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski

LPC 37% ± 10% CPC 27% ± 9% NDP 36% ± 10% Popular vote projection % | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 NDP 32% CPC 30% LPC 30% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 32% LPC 32% CPC 28% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 37% CPC 29% NDP 28% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 36% NDP 29% CPC 28% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 37% NDP 29% CPC 28% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 37% NDP 29% CPC 28% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 37% NDP 29% CPC 28% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 37% NDP 29% CPC 28% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 36% NDP 29% CPC 29% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 36% NDP 29% CPC 29% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 36% NDP 29% CPC 29% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 36% NDP 30% CPC 28% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 36% NDP 31% CPC 28% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 36% NDP 31% CPC 28% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 36% NDP 32% CPC 27% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 35% NDP 35% CPC 27% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 NDP 36% LPC 34% CPC 27% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 NDP 36% LPC 34% CPC 27% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 NDP 36% LPC 34% CPC 26% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 NDP 36% LPC 34% CPC 26% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 NDP 36% LPC 35% CPC 25% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 NDP 36% LPC 35% CPC 26% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 NDP 35% LPC 35% CPC 26% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 35% NDP 35% CPC 26% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 36% NDP 35% CPC 26% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 36% NDP 36% CPC 25% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 36% NDP 35% CPC 25% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 36% NDP 35% CPC 26% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 36% NDP 35% CPC 26% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 37% NDP 36% CPC 27% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski

LPC 53% CPC 2% NDP 45% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 NDP 45% CPC 29% LPC 26% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 46% LPC 40% CPC 14% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 83% CPC 10% NDP 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 78% NDP 13% CPC 9% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 78% NDP 14% CPC 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 78% NDP 14% CPC 8% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 79% NDP 13% CPC 8% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 78% NDP 13% CPC 9% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 75% NDP 14% CPC 12% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 76% NDP 12% CPC 12% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 74% NDP 15% CPC 11% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 70% NDP 20% CPC 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 70% NDP 22% CPC 8% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 67% NDP 26% CPC 7% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 65% NDP 29% CPC 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 48% NDP 48% CPC 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 NDP 58% LPC 38% CPC 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 NDP 59% LPC 38% CPC 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 NDP 59% LPC 37% CPC 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 NDP 56% LPC 40% CPC 3% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 NDP 54% LPC 44% CPC 2% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 NDP 51% LPC 47% CPC 3% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 NDP 50% LPC 47% CPC 3% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 49% NDP 49% CPC 2% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 51% NDP 47% CPC 2% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 49% NDP 49% CPC 2% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 53% NDP 45% CPC 2% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 52% NDP 45% CPC 2% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 53% NDP 44% CPC 2% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 53% NDP 45% CPC 2% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 23.6% 25.2% 37% ± 10% NDP 50.2% 42.6% 36% ± 10% CPC 20.1% 24.2% 27% ± 9% PPC 1.2% 5.0% 1% ± 2% GPC 4.8% 3.1% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.