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Canada


Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley (federal)


MP: Marty Morantz (CPC)


Latest projection: September 24, 2023

CPC likely hold
Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley 44% ± 8%▲ 33% ± 7%▼ 18% ± 5% 3% ± 3% CPC 2021 40.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley 97%▲ 3%▼ <1% Odds of winning | September 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley

LPC 33% ± 7% CPC 44% ± 8% NDP 18% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP

Odds of winning | Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley

LPC 3% CPC 97% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 39.0% 40.7% 40.0% 44% ± 8% LPC 52.0% 35.5% 38.98% 33% ± 7% NDP 6.0% 14.2% 15.4% 18% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 4.3% 3.52% 1% ± 2% GPC 2.9% 4.7% 2.09% 3% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0% ± 0%