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Canada

Bow River


MP elect: David Bexte (CPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Bow River


Liberal Bentley Barnes
Conservative David Bexte
NDP Louisa Gwin
Christian Heritage Tom Lipp
United Aaron Patton

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Bow River 79% ± 0%▲ CPC 17% ± 0%▼ LPC 3% ± 0%▼ NDP CPC 2025 78.8% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Bow River >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Bow River

LPC 17% ± 0% CPC 79% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Bow River 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 73% LPC 10% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 70% LPC 14% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 71% LPC 18% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 70% LPC 19% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 70% LPC 19% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 70% LPC 19% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 70% LPC 19% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 70% LPC 18% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 70% LPC 19% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 70% LPC 19% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 70% LPC 19% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 72% LPC 18% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 72% LPC 18% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 72% LPC 18% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 73% LPC 18% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 73% LPC 18% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 74% LPC 17% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 74% LPC 17% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 74% LPC 17% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 74% LPC 17% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 74% LPC 17% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 74% LPC 17% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 75% LPC 17% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 76% LPC 16% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 75% LPC 16% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 75% LPC 16% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 75% LPC 17% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 74% LPC 17% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 75% LPC 16% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 75% LPC 17% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 75% LPC 17% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 75% LPC 17% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 75% LPC 17% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 75% LPC 17% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 77% LPC 17% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 78% LPC 16% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 78% LPC 16% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 78% LPC 17% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 77% LPC 17% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 77% LPC 17% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 77% LPC 17% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 77% LPC 17% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 77% LPC 18% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 79% LPC 17% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Bow River

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Bow River



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 79% ± 0% 83.7% 69.6% 78.8% LPC 17% ± 0% 5.9% 7.9% 17.0% NDP 3% ± 0% 5.7% 9.4% 3.0% IND 1% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% PPC 0% ± 0% 2.3% 9.8% 0.0% GPC 0% ± 0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.