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Canada

Acadie—Bathurst


MP elect: Serge Cormier (LPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Acadie—Bathurst


Liberal Serge Cormier*
Conservative James Brown
NDP Ty Boulay
PPC Randi Rachelle Raynard

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Acadie—Bathurst 68% ± 0%▼ LPC 26% ± 0%▲ CPC 4% ± 0% NDP LPC 2025 67.5% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Acadie—Bathurst >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Acadie—Bathurst

LPC 68% ± 0% CPC 26% ± 0% NDP 4% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Acadie—Bathurst 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 62% CPC 20% NDP 11% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 65% CPC 18% NDP 9% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 70% CPC 18% NDP 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 70% CPC 18% NDP 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 70% CPC 18% NDP 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 70% CPC 18% NDP 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 70% CPC 18% NDP 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 70% CPC 17% NDP 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 72% CPC 17% NDP 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 72% CPC 17% NDP 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 72% CPC 17% NDP 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 72% CPC 17% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 72% CPC 17% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 73% CPC 17% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 71% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 72% CPC 19% NDP 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 73% CPC 19% NDP 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 72% CPC 19% NDP 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 72% CPC 20% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 73% CPC 19% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 73% CPC 19% NDP 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 73% CPC 19% NDP 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 73% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 72% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 74% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 74% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 74% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 74% CPC 20% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 74% CPC 20% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 74% CPC 20% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 74% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 74% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 74% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 74% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 74% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 74% CPC 19% NDP 5% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 74% CPC 20% NDP 5% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 73% CPC 20% NDP 5% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 73% CPC 21% NDP 5% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 73% CPC 21% NDP 5% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 73% CPC 21% NDP 5% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 73% CPC 21% NDP 5% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 73% CPC 21% NDP 4% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 68% CPC 26% NDP 4% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Acadie—Bathurst

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Acadie—Bathurst



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 68% ± 0% 55.2% 65.0% 67.5% CPC 26% ± 0% 21.3% 13.9% 26.0% NDP 4% ± 0% 14.3% 11.3% 4.4% PPC 2% ± 0% 0.0% 5.9% 2.2% GPC 0% ± 0% 8.9% 2.8% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.