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Canada

Ahuntsic-Cartierville


MP elect: Melanie Joly (LPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Ahuntsic-Cartierville


Liberal Melanie Joly*
Conservative Margie Ramos
NDP Idil Issa
Bloc Quebecois Nabila Ben Youssef
Marxist-Leninist Linda Sullivan

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Ahuntsic-Cartierville 61% ± 0%▲ LPC 17% ± 0%▲ BQ 15% ± 0%▼ CPC 7% ± 0%▲ NDP LPC 2025 60.7% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ahuntsic-Cartierville >99% LPC <1% BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Ahuntsic-Cartierville

LPC 61% ± 0% CPC 15% ± 0% NDP 7% ± 0% BQ 17% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Ahuntsic-Cartierville 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP BQ April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 46% BQ 20% CPC 17% NDP 10% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 48% BQ 19% CPC 16% NDP 9% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 50% BQ 19% CPC 16% NDP 9% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 51% BQ 19% CPC 16% NDP 8% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 51% BQ 18% CPC 16% NDP 8% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 51% BQ 19% CPC 16% NDP 8% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 50% BQ 19% CPC 16% NDP 8% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 51% BQ 19% CPC 15% NDP 8% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 53% BQ 18% CPC 15% NDP 7% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 53% BQ 18% CPC 15% NDP 7% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 54% BQ 18% CPC 15% NDP 7% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 54% BQ 17% CPC 15% NDP 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 55% BQ 17% CPC 15% NDP 6% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 55% BQ 17% CPC 16% NDP 6% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 56% BQ 16% CPC 15% NDP 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 58% CPC 16% BQ 15% NDP 6% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 58% CPC 16% BQ 15% NDP 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 59% CPC 16% BQ 14% NDP 6% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 60% CPC 16% BQ 14% NDP 6% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 60% CPC 16% BQ 14% NDP 6% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 60% CPC 16% BQ 14% NDP 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 60% CPC 16% BQ 14% NDP 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 61% CPC 15% BQ 14% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 60% CPC 15% BQ 14% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 62% CPC 15% BQ 14% NDP 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 62% CPC 15% BQ 14% NDP 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 62% CPC 16% BQ 14% NDP 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 61% CPC 16% BQ 14% NDP 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 61% CPC 16% BQ 14% NDP 7% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 62% CPC 16% BQ 14% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 60% CPC 17% BQ 15% NDP 7% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 60% CPC 17% BQ 15% NDP 7% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 59% CPC 17% BQ 15% NDP 7% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 59% CPC 17% BQ 15% NDP 7% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 59% CPC 17% BQ 15% NDP 7% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 60% CPC 17% BQ 15% NDP 6% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 59% CPC 17% BQ 15% NDP 6% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 59% CPC 17% BQ 15% NDP 6% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 58% CPC 18% BQ 15% NDP 7% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 57% CPC 18% BQ 15% NDP 7% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 57% CPC 18% BQ 15% NDP 7% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 57% CPC 18% BQ 16% NDP 7% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 59% CPC 18% BQ 15% NDP 6% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 61% BQ 17% CPC 15% NDP 7% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Ahuntsic-Cartierville

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Ahuntsic-Cartierville



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 61% ± 0% 51.9% 51.9% 60.7% BQ 17% ± 0% 22.4% 22.6% 17.0% CPC 15% ± 0% 7.0% 8.2% 15.2% NDP 7% ± 0% 11.5% 11.7% 6.6% IND 1% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% GPC 0% ± 0% 6.2% 3.0% 0.0% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.0% 2.6% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.