logo
logo
Canada

Ahuntsic-Cartierville


Latest projection: September 29, 2024
LPC leaning
Ahuntsic-Cartierville 34% ± 7%▼ LPC 28% ± 7% BQ 16% ± 5% CPC 14% ± 5%▲ NDP 6% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 51.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 29, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ahuntsic-Cartierville 89%▼ LPC 11%▲ BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | September 29, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Ahuntsic-Cartierville

LPC 34% ± 7% CPC 16% ± 5% NDP 14% ± 5% GPC 6% ± 4% BQ 28% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Ahuntsic-Cartierville 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ September 29, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 48% BQ 23% CPC 11% NDP 11% GPC 5% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 47% BQ 25% NDP 11% CPC 11% GPC 5% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 48% BQ 24% NDP 11% CPC 10% GPC 5% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 49% BQ 22% NDP 11% CPC 11% GPC 5% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 46% BQ 22% CPC 14% NDP 11% GPC 5% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 47% BQ 21% CPC 14% NDP 11% GPC 5% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 42% BQ 22% CPC 16% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 41% BQ 23% CPC 16% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 41% BQ 23% CPC 16% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 42% BQ 22% CPC 16% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 42% BQ 23% CPC 16% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 42% BQ 23% CPC 16% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 43% BQ 22% CPC 15% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 44% BQ 22% CPC 15% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 42% BQ 21% CPC 16% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 43% BQ 21% CPC 16% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 45% BQ 20% CPC 16% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 44% BQ 21% CPC 15% NDP 12% GPC 5% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 43% BQ 21% CPC 15% NDP 12% GPC 6% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 36% BQ 28% CPC 16% NDP 13% GPC 6% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 34% BQ 28% CPC 16% NDP 14% GPC 6% 2024-09-29

Odds of winning | Ahuntsic-Cartierville

LPC 89% NDP <1% BQ 11% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP BQ September 29, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 94% BQ 6% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 89% BQ 11% NDP <1% 2024-09-29

Recent electoral history | Ahuntsic-Cartierville



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 51.9% 51.9% 34% ± 7% BQ 22.4% 22.6% 28% ± 7% NDP 11.5% 11.7% 14% ± 5% CPC 7.0% 8.2% 16% ± 5% GPC 6.2% 3.0% 6% ± 4% PPC 1.0% 2.6% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.