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Nova scotia

Welcome to 338Canada Nova Scotia!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as a occasional panelist for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

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338Canada Projection | Nova Scotia


Latest update: November 20, 2024

Popular vote projection 47% ± 4% PC 26% ± 3% NDP 24% ± 4% LIB 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 20, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 28 seats for a majority 40▼ [35-44] PC 9▲ [7-13] NDP 5 [0-8] LIB 1 [1-1] IND 338Canada Nova Scotia | November 20, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats >99% PC <1% NDP <1% LIB <1% Tie Odds of winning | November 20, 2024
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome >99% PC maj. <1% PC min. <1% NDP min. <1% NDP maj. Odds of outcome | November 20, 2024

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Nova Scotia | Popular vote projection

LIB PC NDP GRN LIB 24% ± 4% PC 47% ± 4% NDP 26% ± 3% GRN 2% ± 1% Popular vote projection % 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 2024-12-01 Election 2024 Campaign begins November 20, 2024 2024-10-31 PC 45% LIB 26% NDP 25% GRN 4% 2024-10-31 2024-11-01 PC 45% LIB 26% NDP 25% GRN 4% 2024-11-01 2024-11-04 PC 45% LIB 25% NDP 25% GRN 4% 2024-11-04 2024-11-12 PC 47% NDP 25% LIB 25% GRN 2% 2024-11-12 2024-11-20 PC 47% NDP 26% LIB 24% GRN 2% 2024-11-20

Nova Scotia | Seat projection

LIB 5 [0-8] PC 40 [35-44] NDP 9 [7-13] GRN 0 [0-0] IND 1 [1-1] Seat projection 40 30 20 10 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 2024-12-01 Election 2024 Campaign begins LIB PC NDP GRN IND Majority: 28 seats November 20, 2024 2024-10-31 PC 40 NDP 8 LIB 6 GRN 0 2024-10-31 2024-11-01 PC 40 NDP 8 LIB 6 GRN 0 2024-11-01 2024-11-04 PC 40 NDP 8 LIB 6 GRN 0 2024-11-04 2024-11-12 PC 41 NDP 8 LIB 5 GRN 0 2024-11-12 2024-11-20 PC 40 NDP 9 LIB 5 GRN 0 2024-11-20

Nova Scotia | Odds of winning the most seats

PC >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 2024-12-01 Election 2024 Campaign begins LIB PC NDP GRN Tie November 20, 2024 2024-10-31 PC >99% Tie <1% GRN <1% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-31 2024-11-01 PC >99% Tie <1% GRN <1% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-01 2024-11-04 PC >99% Tie <1% GRN <1% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-04 2024-11-12 PC >99% Tie <1% GRN <1% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-12 2024-11-20 PC >99% Tie <1% GRN <1% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-20

Nova Scotia | Odds of election outcome

PC majority >99% NDP minority <1% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 2024-12-01 Election 2024 Campaign begins PC majority NDP minority November 20, 2024 2024-10-31 PC majority >99% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-31 2024-11-01 PC majority >99% NDP minority <1% 2024-11-01 2024-11-04 PC majority >99% NDP minority <1% 2024-11-04 2024-11-12 PC majority >99% NDP minority <1% 2024-11-12 2024-11-20 PC majority >99% NDP minority <1% 2024-11-20