logo
logo
Nova scotia

Welcome to 338Canada Nova Scotia!


338Canada is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data.

This website is the creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L’actualité, as well as a regular contributor to Politico Canada and The Walrus.

He also appears as a panelist on CPAC, CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He co-hosts the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

Subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter to stay updated — and enjoy the website!



338Canada Projection | Nova Scotia


Latest update: November 27, 2024

Popular vote projection 53% ± 0% PC 23% ± 0% LIB 22% ± 0% NDP 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 27, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 28 seats for a majority 43▼ [43-43] PC 9▲ [9-9] NDP 2 [2-2] LIB 1 [1-1] IND 338Canada Nova Scotia | November 27, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats >99% PC <1% NDP <1% LIB <1% Tie Odds of winning | November 27, 2024
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome >99% PC maj. <1% PC min. <1% NDP min. <1% NDP maj. Odds of outcome | November 27, 2024

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Nova Scotia | Popular vote projection

LIB PC NDP GRN LIB 23% ± 0% PC 53% ± 0% NDP 22% ± 0% GRN 1% ± 0% Popular vote projection % 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-11-01 2024-12-01 Election 2024 Campaign begins November 27, 2024 2024-11-01 PC 45% LIB 26% NDP 25% GRN 4% 2024-11-01 2024-11-04 PC 45% LIB 25% NDP 25% GRN 4% 2024-11-04 2024-11-12 PC 47% NDP 25% LIB 25% GRN 2% 2024-11-12 2024-11-20 PC 47% NDP 26% LIB 24% GRN 2% 2024-11-20 2024-11-23 PC 48% NDP 26% LIB 23% GRN 1% 2024-11-23 2024-11-25 PC 50% NDP 25% LIB 22% GRN 1% 2024-11-25 2024-11-27 PC 53% LIB 23% NDP 22% GRN 1% 2024-11-27

Nova Scotia | Seat projection

LIB [2-2] PC [43-43] NDP [9-9] GRN [0-0] IND [1-1] Seat projection 40 30 20 10 2024-11-01 2024-11-15 2024-12-01 Election 2024 Campaign begins LIB PC NDP GRN IND Majority: 28 seats November 27, 2024 2024-11-01 PC 40 NDP 8 LIB 6 GRN 0 2024-11-01 2024-11-04 PC 40 NDP 8 LIB 6 GRN 0 2024-11-04 2024-11-12 PC 41 NDP 8 LIB 5 GRN 0 2024-11-12 2024-11-20 PC 40 NDP 9 LIB 5 GRN 0 2024-11-20 2024-11-23 PC 40 NDP 9 LIB 5 GRN 0 2024-11-23 2024-11-25 PC 44 NDP 8 LIB 2 GRN 0 2024-11-25 2024-11-27 PC 43 NDP 9 LIB 2 GRN 0 2024-11-27

Nova Scotia | Odds of winning the most seats

PC >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-11-01 2024-11-15 2024-12-01 Election 2024 Campaign begins LIB PC NDP GRN Tie November 27, 2024 2024-11-01 PC >99% Tie <1% GRN <1% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-01 2024-11-04 PC >99% Tie <1% GRN <1% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-04 2024-11-12 PC >99% Tie <1% GRN <1% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-12 2024-11-20 PC >99% Tie <1% GRN <1% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-20 2024-11-23 PC >99% Tie <1% GRN <1% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-23 2024-11-25 PC >99% Tie <1% GRN <1% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-25 2024-11-27 PC >99% Tie <1% GRN <1% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-27

Nova Scotia | Odds of election outcome

PC majority >99% NDP minority <1% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-11-01 2024-11-15 2024-12-01 Election 2024 Campaign begins PC majority NDP minority November 27, 2024 2024-11-01 PC majority >99% NDP minority <1% 2024-11-01 2024-11-04 PC majority >99% NDP minority <1% 2024-11-04 2024-11-12 PC majority >99% NDP minority <1% 2024-11-12 2024-11-20 PC majority >99% NDP minority <1% 2024-11-20 2024-11-23 PC majority >99% NDP minority <1% 2024-11-23 2024-11-25 PC majority >99% NDP minority <1% 2024-11-25 2024-11-27 PC majority >99% NDP minority <1% 2024-11-27