logo
Canada


Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs (federal)


MP: Marc Miller (LPC)


Latest projection: April 14, 2024

LPC safe hold
Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs 43% ± 7%▲ 22% ± 6%▼ 15% ± 4% 12% ± 4%▼ 6% ± 4% LPC 2021 50.48% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 14, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | April 14, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs

LPC 43% ± 7% CPC 15% ± 4% NDP 22% ± 6% GPC 6% ± 4% BQ 12% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Odds of winning | Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 50.8% 53.5% 50.48% 43% ± 7% NDP 23.4% 15.8% 18.79% 22% ± 6% CPC 11.9% 8.8% 12.5% 15% ± 4% BQ 8.6% 13.1% 12.41% 12% ± 4% GPC 4.8% 7.1% 2.68% 6% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 1.0% 2.62% 2% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0% ± 0%