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Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs


Latest projection: June 30, 2024
LPC safe
Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs 42% ± 8%▼ LPC 20% ± 6%▼ CPC 18% ± 6% NDP 11% ± 5% BQ 5% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 51.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 30, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 30, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs

LPC 42% ± 8% CPC 20% ± 6% NDP 18% ± 6% GPC 5% ± 4% BQ 11% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ June 30, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 47% CPC 17% NDP 17% BQ 12% GPC 5% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 47% NDP 17% CPC 17% BQ 13% GPC 5% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 48% NDP 17% CPC 16% BQ 12% GPC 5% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 48% NDP 17% CPC 17% BQ 11% GPC 5% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 48% CPC 18% NDP 17% BQ 11% GPC 5% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 48% CPC 18% NDP 17% BQ 11% GPC 5% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 43% CPC 21% NDP 18% BQ 11% GPC 5% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 42% CPC 20% NDP 18% BQ 11% GPC 5% 2024-06-30

Odds of winning | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP June 30, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30

Recent electoral history | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 54.6% 51.4% 42% ± 8% NDP 15.0% 18.1% 18% ± 6% CPC 9.3% 12.8% 20% ± 6% BQ 12.3% 11.9% 11% ± 5% GPC 6.9% 2.7% 5% ± 4% PPC 1.0% 2.6% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.