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Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
LPC likely
Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs 37% ± 8%▲ LPC 22% ± 6%▲ NDP 19% ± 6% CPC 14% ± 5%▼ BQ 5% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 51.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs

LPC 37% ± 8% CPC 19% ± 6% NDP 22% ± 6% GPC 5% ± 4% BQ 14% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 47% CPC 17% NDP 17% BQ 12% GPC 5% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 47% NDP 17% CPC 17% BQ 13% GPC 5% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 48% NDP 17% CPC 16% BQ 12% GPC 5% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 48% NDP 17% CPC 17% BQ 11% GPC 5% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 48% CPC 18% NDP 17% BQ 11% GPC 5% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 48% CPC 18% NDP 17% BQ 11% GPC 5% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 43% CPC 21% NDP 18% BQ 11% GPC 5% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 42% CPC 20% NDP 18% BQ 11% GPC 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 43% CPC 20% NDP 18% BQ 12% GPC 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 43% CPC 20% NDP 18% BQ 11% GPC 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 43% CPC 20% NDP 17% BQ 11% GPC 5% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 43% CPC 20% NDP 17% BQ 11% GPC 5% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 45% CPC 19% NDP 17% BQ 11% GPC 4% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 45% CPC 19% NDP 17% BQ 11% GPC 4% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 43% CPC 20% NDP 18% BQ 11% GPC 4% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 45% CPC 20% NDP 17% BQ 11% GPC 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 46% CPC 19% NDP 17% BQ 10% GPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 45% CPC 19% NDP 18% BQ 10% GPC 5% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 44% CPC 19% NDP 18% BQ 11% GPC 5% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 41% NDP 19% CPC 18% BQ 14% GPC 5% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 39% NDP 20% CPC 18% BQ 14% GPC 5% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 39% NDP 21% CPC 18% BQ 14% GPC 5% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 40% NDP 21% CPC 18% BQ 14% GPC 5% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 40% NDP 20% CPC 17% BQ 14% GPC 5% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 41% NDP 20% CPC 17% BQ 15% GPC 5% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 41% NDP 20% CPC 17% BQ 15% GPC 5% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 40% NDP 19% CPC 18% BQ 15% GPC 5% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 40% NDP 19% CPC 19% BQ 15% GPC 5% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 38% CPC 20% NDP 20% BQ 15% GPC 5% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 38% CPC 20% NDP 20% BQ 15% GPC 5% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 36% NDP 21% CPC 19% BQ 15% GPC 5% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 37% NDP 22% CPC 19% BQ 14% GPC 5% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 54.6% 51.4% 37% ± 8% NDP 15.0% 18.1% 22% ± 6% CPC 9.3% 12.8% 19% ± 6% BQ 12.3% 11.9% 14% ± 5% GPC 6.9% 2.7% 5% ± 4% PPC 1.0% 2.6% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.