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Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs


MP: Marc Miller (LPC)

Latest projection: July 20, 2025
LPC safe

Recent electoral history | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 67% ± 8% 54.6% 51.4% 63.7% CPC 16% ± 5% 9.3% 12.8% 18.8% BQ 8% ± 4% 12.3% 11.9% 9.0% NDP 7% ± 4% 15.0% 18.1% 6.0% GPC 2% ± 2% 6.9% 2.7% 2.1% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.0% 2.6% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs


Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs 67% ± 8%▲ LPC 16% ± 5% CPC 8% ± 4% BQ 7% ± 4% NDP LPC 2025 63.7% 338Canada vote projection | July 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% BQ Odds of winning | July 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs

LPC 67% ± 8% CPC 16% ± 5% NDP 7% ± 4% BQ 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ July 20, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 35% CPC 22% NDP 21% BQ 14% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 35% CPC 23% NDP 21% BQ 14% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 36% CPC 23% NDP 21% BQ 14% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 37% CPC 22% NDP 21% BQ 14% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 41% CPC 20% NDP 19% BQ 12% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 44% CPC 20% NDP 17% BQ 12% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 47% CPC 20% NDP 15% BQ 12% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 50% CPC 19% NDP 14% BQ 11% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 51% CPC 19% NDP 13% BQ 10% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 53% CPC 18% NDP 12% BQ 10% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 55% CPC 18% NDP 11% BQ 9% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 56% CPC 18% NDP 11% BQ 9% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 56% CPC 18% NDP 11% BQ 9% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 56% CPC 18% NDP 11% BQ 9% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 56% CPC 17% NDP 11% BQ 10% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 56% CPC 17% NDP 11% BQ 10% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 58% CPC 17% NDP 9% BQ 9% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 59% CPC 17% BQ 9% NDP 9% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 59% CPC 17% BQ 9% NDP 9% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 59% CPC 17% BQ 9% NDP 9% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 60% CPC 17% BQ 8% NDP 8% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 60% CPC 17% BQ 8% NDP 8% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 61% CPC 17% BQ 8% NDP 8% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 62% CPC 17% NDP 8% BQ 8% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 63% CPC 17% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 64% CPC 17% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 64% CPC 17% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 64% CPC 17% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 64% CPC 17% NDP 7% BQ 7% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 64% CPC 17% NDP 7% BQ 7% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 65% CPC 16% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 65% CPC 16% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 65% CPC 16% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 64% CPC 16% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 64% CPC 17% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 64% CPC 17% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 63% CPC 17% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 64% CPC 17% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 62% CPC 18% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 62% CPC 18% NDP 9% BQ 7% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 62% CPC 18% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 62% CPC 18% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 62% CPC 18% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 62% CPC 18% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 62% CPC 18% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 61% CPC 18% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 60% CPC 19% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 60% CPC 19% NDP 9% BQ 7% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 59% CPC 19% NDP 9% BQ 7% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 59% CPC 20% NDP 9% BQ 7% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 61% CPC 19% NDP 8% BQ 7% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 63% CPC 19% BQ 9% NDP 6% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 63% CPC 19% BQ 9% NDP 6% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 63% CPC 19% BQ 9% NDP 6% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 64% CPC 19% BQ 9% NDP 6% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 64% CPC 19% BQ 9% NDP 6% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 64% CPC 19% BQ 9% NDP 6% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 64% CPC 18% BQ 9% NDP 6% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 64% CPC 18% BQ 9% NDP 6% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 66% CPC 17% BQ 9% NDP 6% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 66% CPC 17% BQ 8% NDP 6% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 66% CPC 16% BQ 8% NDP 7% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 67% CPC 16% BQ 8% NDP 7% 2025-07-20 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 20, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-20 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader