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Canada

Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
CPC leaning

Candidates | Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga


Liberal Tracey Sweeney Schenk
Conservative Shelby Kramp-Neuman*
NDP Ava Duffy
Green Michael Holbrook
PPC Zaid Yusufani

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga 48% ± 8% CPC 43% ± 8% LPC 5% ± 3% NDP CPC 2021 45.6% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga 76%▼ CPC 24%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga

LPC 43% ± 8% CPC 48% ± 8% NDP 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 52% LPC 31% NDP 9% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 51% LPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 48% LPC 36% NDP 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 48% LPC 37% NDP 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 48% LPC 37% NDP 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 48% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 48% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 48% LPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 48% LPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 48% LPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 49% LPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 48% LPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 48% LPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 49% LPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 49% LPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 48% LPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 49% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga

LPC 24% CPC 76% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 41.6% 45.6% 48% ± 8% LPC 37.0% 34.5% 43% ± 8% NDP 13.1% 11.0% 5% ± 3% GPC 5.8% 1.8% 2% ± 2% PPC 2.4% 5.7% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.