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Welcome to 338Canada British Columbia!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as a occasional panelist for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

Please subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter here, and enjoy the website!


338Canada Projection | British Columbia


Latest update: November 10, 2024

Popular vote projection 45% ± 0%▲ NDP 43% ± 0% CPBC 8% ± 0% BCG 4% ± 0% IND338Canada Popular vote projection | November 10, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 47 seats for a majority 47▲ [47-47] NDP 44▼ [44-44] CPBC 2 [2-2] BCG 0 [0-0] IND 338Canada British Columbia | November 10, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 81%▲ NDP 15%▼ CPBC 4%▼ Tie <1% BCG Odds of winning | November 10, 2024
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome 72%▲ NDP maj. 9%▼ CPBC maj. 9%▼ NDP min. 6%▼ CPBC min. 4%▼ Tie Odds of outcome | November 10, 2024

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

British Columbia | Popular vote projection

BCU CPBC NDP BCG BCU 0% ± 0% CPBC 43% ± 0% NDP 45% ± 0% BCG 8% ± 0% Popular vote projection % 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-10-01 Election 2024 Campaign begins November 10, 2024 2024-09-21 NDP 44% CPBC 44% BCG 11% BCU 1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 44% CPBC 44% BCG 11% BCU 0% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 44% CPBC 44% BCG 11% BCU 0% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 44% NDP 44% BCG 10% BCU 0% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 45% NDP 44% BCG 10% BCU 0% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 45% NDP 44% BCG 10% BCU 0% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 46% NDP 44% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 46% NDP 44% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 46% NDP 44% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 46% NDP 44% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 46% NDP 44% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 46% NDP 44% BCG 8% BCU 0% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 46% NDP 44% BCG 8% BCU 0% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC 45% NDP 45% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 45% CPBC 45% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 46% CPBC 44% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 45% CPBC 45% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 45% NDP 45% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 45% CPBC 44% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 45% CPBC 44% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 45% CPBC 44% BCG 10% BCU 0% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 45% CPBC 44% BCG 10% BCU 0% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 45% CPBC 43% BCG 10% BCU 0% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 45% CPBC 43% BCG 10% BCU 0% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 45% CPBC 43% BCG 10% BCU 0% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 45% CPBC 43% BCG 10% BCU 0% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 44% CPBC 43% BCG 8% BCU 0% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 45% CPBC 43% BCG 8% BCU 0% 2024-11-10

British Columbia | Seat projection

BCU 0 [0-0] CPBC 44 [44-44] NDP 47 [48-48] BCG 2 [2-2] IND 0 [0-0] Seat projection 60 50 40 30 20 10 2024-09-15 2024-10-01 2024-10-15 Election 2024 Campaign begins BCU CPBC NDP BCG IND Majority: 47 seats November 10, 2024 2024-09-21 NDP 49 CPBC 43 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 50 CPBC 42 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 50 CPBC 42 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 47 CPBC 45 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 47 CPBC 45 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 47 CPBC 45 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 46 NDP 46 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 48 CPBC 44 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 48 CPBC 44 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 47 NDP 45 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 47 NDP 45 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 46 NDP 46 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 46 NDP 46 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 48 CPBC 44 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 49 CPBC 43 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 51 CPBC 41 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 48 CPBC 44 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 48 CPBC 44 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 49 CPBC 42 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 49 CPBC 42 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 49 CPBC 42 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 50 CPBC 41 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 51 CPBC 40 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 49 CPBC 42 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 49 CPBC 42 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 50 CPBC 41 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 46 CPBC 45 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 47 CPBC 44 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-11-10

British Columbia | Odds of winning the most seats

CPBC 15% NDP 81% Tie 4% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-09-15 2024-10-01 2024-10-15 Election 2024 Campaign begins CPBC NDP BCG Tie November 10, 2024 2024-09-21 NDP 97% CPBC 2% Tie 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 98% CPBC 1% Tie 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 86% CPBC 12% Tie 2% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 79% CPBC 18% Tie 3% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 79% CPBC 18% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 64% CPBC 31% Tie 5% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 63% CPBC 33% Tie 5% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 63% CPBC 33% Tie 5% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 64% CPBC 32% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 62% CPBC 33% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 58% CPBC 37% Tie 5% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 57% CPBC 39% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 56% CPBC 40% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 51% CPBC 45% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 54% CPBC 42% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 54% CPBC 41% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC 53% NDP 43% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 53% NDP 43% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC 49% NDP 47% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 51% CPBC 45% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 60% CPBC 36% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 64% CPBC 32% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 73% CPBC 23% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 63% CPBC 33% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 60% CPBC 36% Tie 3% BCG <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 68% CPBC 31% Tie 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 67% CPBC 32% Tie 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 67% CPBC 31% Tie 2% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2024-09-21 NDP 73% CPBC 25% Tie 2% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 79% CPBC 20% Tie 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 74% CPBC 25% Tie 2% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 75% CPBC 24% Tie 2% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 73% CPBC 25% Tie 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 67% CPBC 29% Tie 5% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 81% CPBC 15% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-09-29

British Columbia | Odds of election outcome

CPBC majority 9% CPBC minority 6% NDP majority 72% NDP minority 9% Tie 4% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-09-15 2024-10-01 2024-10-15 Election 2024 Campaign begins CPBC majority CPBC minority NDP majority NDP minority Tie November 10, 2024 2024-09-21 NDP majority 62% CPBC majority 32% Tie 5% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP majority 64% CPBC majority 31% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP majority 62% CPBC majority 33% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP majority 58% CPBC majority 37% Tie 5% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP majority 57% CPBC majority 39% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP majority 56% CPBC majority 40% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP majority 51% CPBC majority 45% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP majority 54% CPBC majority 42% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP majority 54% CPBC majority 41% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC majority 53% NDP majority 43% Tie 4% NDP minority <1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC majority 53% NDP majority 43% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC majority 49% NDP majority 47% Tie 4% NDP minority <1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP majority 51% CPBC majority 44% Tie 4% NDP minority <1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP majority 60% CPBC majority 35% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP majority 64% CPBC majority 32% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP majority 73% CPBC majority 23% Tie 4% NDP minority <1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP majority 63% CPBC majority 32% Tie 4% NDP minority <1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP majority 59% CPBC majority 35% Tie 3% NDP minority 1% CPBC minority 1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP majority 63% CPBC majority 26% NDP minority 5% CPBC minority 4% Tie 2% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP majority 62% CPBC majority 27% NDP minority 5% CPBC minority 4% Tie 2% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP majority 61% CPBC majority 26% NDP minority 6% CPBC minority 5% Tie 2% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP majority 68% CPBC majority 21% NDP minority 5% CPBC minority 5% Tie 2% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP majority 73% CPBC majority 16% NDP minority 5% CPBC minority 4% Tie 1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP majority 69% CPBC majority 20% NDP minority 5% CPBC minority 5% Tie 2% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP majority 69% CPBC majority 19% NDP minority 5% CPBC minority 5% Tie 2% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP majority 68% CPBC majority 21% NDP minority 5% CPBC minority 5% Tie 1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP majority 55% CPBC majority 19% NDP minority 12% CPBC minority 9% Tie 5% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP majority 72% CPBC majority 9% NDP minority 9% CPBC minority 6% Tie 4% 2024-11-10