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Welcome to 338Canada British Columbia!


338Canada is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data.

This website is the creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L’actualité, as well as a regular contributor to Politico Canada and The Walrus.

He also appears as a panelist on CPAC, CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He co-hosts the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

Subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter to stay updated — and enjoy the website!



338Canada Projection | British Columbia


Latest update: September 13, 2025

Popular vote projection 44% ± 5%▼ NDP 44% ± 5%▲ CPBC 8% ± 2% BCG 4% ± 1% IND338Canada Popular vote projection | September 13, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 47 seats for a majority 46▲ [28-62] CPBC 45▼ [30-64] NDP 2 [0-3] BCG 0 [0-0] IND 338Canada British Columbia | September 13, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 52%▼ NDP 48%▲ CPBC 1% Tie <1% BCG Odds of winning | September 13, 2025
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome 50%▼ NDP maj. 46%▲ CPBC maj. 2% CPBC min. 2% NDP min. 1% Tie Odds of outcome | September 13, 2025

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

British Columbia | Popular vote projection

BCU CPBC NDP BCG BCU 0% ± 0% CPBC 44% ± 5% NDP 44% ± 5% BCG 8% ± 2% Popular vote projection % 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2024 September 13, 2025 2024-03-26 NDP 42% CPBC 25% BCU 19% BCG 11% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 41% CPBC 30% BCU 16% BCG 10% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 39% CPBC 35% BCU 13% BCG 10% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 41% CPBC 33% BCU 14% BCG 10% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 41% CPBC 33% BCU 12% BCG 11% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 40% CPBC 36% BCG 11% BCU 11% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 40% CPBC 37% BCG 11% BCU 10% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 40% CPBC 38% BCG 10% BCU 10% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 44% NDP 44% BCG 11% BCU 0% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 44% CPBC 44% BCG 11% BCU 1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 44% CPBC 44% BCG 11% BCU 1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 44% CPBC 44% BCG 11% BCU 0% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 44% CPBC 44% BCG 11% BCU 0% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 44% NDP 44% BCG 10% BCU 0% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 45% NDP 44% BCG 10% BCU 0% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 45% NDP 44% BCG 10% BCU 0% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 46% NDP 44% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 46% NDP 44% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 46% NDP 44% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 46% NDP 44% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 46% NDP 44% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 46% NDP 44% BCG 8% BCU 0% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 46% NDP 44% BCG 8% BCU 0% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC 45% NDP 45% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 45% CPBC 45% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 46% CPBC 44% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 45% CPBC 45% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 45% NDP 45% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 45% CPBC 44% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 45% CPBC 44% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 45% CPBC 44% BCG 10% BCU 0% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 45% CPBC 44% BCG 10% BCU 0% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 45% CPBC 43% BCG 10% BCU 0% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 45% CPBC 43% BCG 10% BCU 0% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 45% CPBC 43% BCG 10% BCU 0% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 45% CPBC 43% BCG 10% BCU 0% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 44% CPBC 43% BCG 8% BCU 0% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 45% CPBC 43% BCG 8% BCU 0% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 45% CPBC 43% BCG 8% BCU 0% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 45% CPBC 43% BCG 8% BCU 0% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP 44% CPBC 44% BCG 8% BCU 0% 2025-09-13

British Columbia | Seat projection

BCU 0 [0-0] CPBC 46 [28-62] NDP 45 [30-64] BCG 2 [0-3] IND 0 [0-0] Seat projection 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2024 BCU CPBC NDP BCG IND Majority: 47 seats September 13, 2025 2024-03-26 NDP 68 CPBC 19 BCU 4 BCG 2 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 62 CPBC 28 BCG 2 BCU 1 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 53 CPBC 38 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 58 CPBC 33 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 58 CPBC 33 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 54 CPBC 37 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 53 CPBC 39 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 53 CPBC 39 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 49 CPBC 43 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 49 CPBC 43 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 49 CPBC 43 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 50 CPBC 42 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 50 CPBC 42 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 47 CPBC 45 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 47 CPBC 45 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 47 CPBC 45 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 46 NDP 46 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 48 CPBC 44 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 48 CPBC 44 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 47 NDP 45 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 47 NDP 45 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 46 NDP 46 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 46 NDP 46 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 48 CPBC 44 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 49 CPBC 43 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 51 CPBC 41 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 48 CPBC 44 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 48 CPBC 44 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 49 CPBC 42 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 49 CPBC 42 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 49 CPBC 42 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 50 CPBC 41 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 51 CPBC 40 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 49 CPBC 42 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 49 CPBC 42 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 50 CPBC 41 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 46 CPBC 45 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 47 CPBC 44 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 47 CPBC 44 BCG 2 BCU 0 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 48 CPBC 43 BCG 2 BCU 0 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 CPBC 46 NDP 45 BCG 2 BCU 0 2025-09-13

British Columbia | Odds of winning the most seats

CPBC 48% NDP 52% Tie 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG Tie September 13, 2025 2024-03-26 NDP 99% Tie <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 99% Tie <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 99% Tie <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% Tie <1% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 78% CPBC 19% Tie 3% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 97% CPBC 2% Tie 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 98% CPBC 1% Tie 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 86% CPBC 12% Tie 2% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 79% CPBC 18% Tie 3% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 79% CPBC 18% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 64% CPBC 31% Tie 5% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 63% CPBC 33% Tie 5% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 63% CPBC 33% Tie 5% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 64% CPBC 32% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 62% CPBC 33% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 58% CPBC 37% Tie 5% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 57% CPBC 39% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 56% CPBC 40% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 51% CPBC 45% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 54% CPBC 42% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 54% CPBC 41% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC 53% NDP 43% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC 53% NDP 43% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC 49% NDP 47% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 51% CPBC 45% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 60% CPBC 36% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 64% CPBC 32% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 73% CPBC 23% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 63% CPBC 33% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 60% CPBC 36% Tie 3% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 68% CPBC 31% Tie 2% BCG <1% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 67% CPBC 32% Tie 2% BCG <1% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP 67% CPBC 31% Tie 2% BCG <1% 2025-09-13 2024-03-26 NDP 73% CPBC 25% Tie 2% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 79% CPBC 20% Tie 1% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 74% CPBC 25% Tie 2% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 75% CPBC 24% Tie 2% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 73% CPBC 25% Tie 1% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 67% CPBC 29% Tie 5% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 81% CPBC 15% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 59% CPBC 39% Tie 1% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 58% CPBC 41% Tie 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 52% CPBC 48% Tie 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-20

British Columbia | Odds of election outcome

CPBC majority 46% CPBC minority 2% NDP majority 50% NDP minority 2% Tie 1% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2024 CPBC majority CPBC minority NDP majority NDP minority Tie September 13, 2025 2024-03-26 NDP majority >99% Tie <1% NDP minority <1% CPBC minority <1% CPBC majority <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP majority >99% NDP minority <1% Tie <1% CPBC majority <1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP majority 77% CPBC majority 18% Tie 3% NDP minority 1% CPBC minority 1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP majority 96% CPBC majority 2% Tie 1% NDP minority 1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP majority 97% CPBC majority 1% NDP minority 1% Tie 1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP majority 83% CPBC majority 10% NDP minority 3% CPBC minority 2% Tie 2% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP majority 78% CPBC majority 17% Tie 3% NDP minority 1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP majority 78% CPBC majority 17% Tie 4% NDP minority <1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP majority 64% CPBC majority 31% Tie 5% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP majority 63% CPBC majority 32% Tie 5% NDP minority <1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP majority 62% CPBC majority 32% Tie 5% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP majority 64% CPBC majority 31% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP majority 62% CPBC majority 33% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP majority 58% CPBC majority 37% Tie 5% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP majority 57% CPBC majority 39% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP majority 56% CPBC majority 40% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP majority 51% CPBC majority 45% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP majority 54% CPBC majority 42% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP majority 54% CPBC majority 41% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC majority 53% NDP majority 43% Tie 4% NDP minority <1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC majority 53% NDP majority 43% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC majority 49% NDP majority 47% Tie 4% NDP minority <1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP majority 51% CPBC majority 44% Tie 4% NDP minority <1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP majority 60% CPBC majority 35% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP majority 64% CPBC majority 32% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP majority 73% CPBC majority 23% Tie 4% NDP minority <1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP majority 63% CPBC majority 32% Tie 4% NDP minority <1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP majority 59% CPBC majority 35% Tie 3% NDP minority 1% CPBC minority 1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP majority 63% CPBC majority 26% NDP minority 5% CPBC minority 4% Tie 2% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP majority 62% CPBC majority 27% NDP minority 5% CPBC minority 4% Tie 2% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP majority 61% CPBC majority 26% NDP minority 6% CPBC minority 5% Tie 2% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP majority 68% CPBC majority 21% NDP minority 5% CPBC minority 5% Tie 2% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP majority 73% CPBC majority 16% NDP minority 5% CPBC minority 4% Tie 1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP majority 69% CPBC majority 20% NDP minority 5% CPBC minority 5% Tie 2% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP majority 69% CPBC majority 19% NDP minority 5% CPBC minority 5% Tie 2% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP majority 68% CPBC majority 21% NDP minority 5% CPBC minority 5% Tie 1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP majority 55% CPBC majority 19% NDP minority 12% CPBC minority 9% Tie 5% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP majority 72% CPBC majority 9% NDP minority 9% CPBC minority 6% Tie 4% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP majority 57% CPBC majority 37% NDP minority 3% CPBC minority 3% Tie 1% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP majority 56% CPBC majority 40% NDP minority 2% CPBC minority 2% Tie 1% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP majority 50% CPBC majority 46% CPBC minority 2% NDP minority 2% Tie 1% 2025-09-13