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Welcome to 338Canada British Columbia!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as an occasional panelist for CPAC, CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

Please subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter here, and enjoy the website!


338Canada Projection | British Columbia


Latest update: June 18, 2025

Popular vote projection 45% ± 5% NDP 43% ± 5% CPBC 8% ± 2% BCG 4% ± 1% IND338Canada Popular vote projection | June 18, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 47 seats for a majority 48▲ [32-66] NDP 43▼ [26-60] CPBC 2 [0-3] BCG 0 [0-0] IND 338Canada British Columbia | June 18, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 58%▼ NDP 41%▲ CPBC 1% Tie <1% BCG Odds of winning | June 18, 2025
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome 56%▼ NDP maj. 40%▲ CPBC maj. 2%▼ NDP min. 2%▼ CPBC min. 1% Tie Odds of outcome | June 18, 2025

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

British Columbia | Popular vote projection

BCU CPBC NDP BCG BCU 0% ± 0% CPBC 43% ± 5% NDP 45% ± 5% BCG 8% ± 2% Popular vote projection % 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2024 June 18, 2025 2024-03-26 NDP 42% CPBC 25% BCU 19% BCG 11% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 41% CPBC 30% BCU 16% BCG 10% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 39% CPBC 35% BCU 13% BCG 10% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 41% CPBC 33% BCU 14% BCG 10% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 41% CPBC 33% BCU 12% BCG 11% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 40% CPBC 36% BCG 11% BCU 11% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 40% CPBC 37% BCG 11% BCU 10% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 40% CPBC 38% BCG 10% BCU 10% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 44% NDP 44% BCG 11% BCU 0% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 44% CPBC 44% BCG 11% BCU 1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 44% CPBC 44% BCG 11% BCU 1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 44% CPBC 44% BCG 11% BCU 0% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 44% CPBC 44% BCG 11% BCU 0% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 44% NDP 44% BCG 10% BCU 0% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 45% NDP 44% BCG 10% BCU 0% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 45% NDP 44% BCG 10% BCU 0% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 46% NDP 44% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 46% NDP 44% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 46% NDP 44% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 46% NDP 44% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 46% NDP 44% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 46% NDP 44% BCG 8% BCU 0% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 46% NDP 44% BCG 8% BCU 0% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC 45% NDP 45% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 45% CPBC 45% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 46% CPBC 44% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 45% CPBC 45% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 45% NDP 45% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 45% CPBC 44% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 45% CPBC 44% BCG 9% BCU 0% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 45% CPBC 44% BCG 10% BCU 0% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 45% CPBC 44% BCG 10% BCU 0% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 45% CPBC 43% BCG 10% BCU 0% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 45% CPBC 43% BCG 10% BCU 0% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 45% CPBC 43% BCG 10% BCU 0% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 45% CPBC 43% BCG 10% BCU 0% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 44% CPBC 43% BCG 8% BCU 0% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 45% CPBC 43% BCG 8% BCU 0% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 45% CPBC 43% BCG 8% BCU 0% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 45% CPBC 43% BCG 8% BCU 0% 2025-06-18

British Columbia | Seat projection

BCU 0 [0-0] CPBC 43 [26-60] NDP 48 [32-66] BCG 2 [0-3] IND 0 [0-0] Seat projection 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2024 BCU CPBC NDP BCG IND Majority: 47 seats June 18, 2025 2024-03-26 NDP 68 CPBC 19 BCU 4 BCG 2 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 62 CPBC 28 BCG 2 BCU 1 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 53 CPBC 38 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 58 CPBC 33 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 58 CPBC 33 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 54 CPBC 37 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 53 CPBC 39 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 53 CPBC 39 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 49 CPBC 43 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 49 CPBC 43 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 49 CPBC 43 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 50 CPBC 42 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 50 CPBC 42 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 47 CPBC 45 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 47 CPBC 45 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 47 CPBC 45 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 46 NDP 46 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 48 CPBC 44 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 48 CPBC 44 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 47 NDP 45 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 47 NDP 45 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 46 NDP 46 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 46 NDP 46 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 48 CPBC 44 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 49 CPBC 43 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 51 CPBC 41 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 48 CPBC 44 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 48 CPBC 44 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 49 CPBC 42 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 49 CPBC 42 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 49 CPBC 42 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 50 CPBC 41 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 51 CPBC 40 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 49 CPBC 42 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 49 CPBC 42 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 50 CPBC 41 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 46 CPBC 45 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 47 CPBC 44 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 47 CPBC 44 BCG 2 BCU 0 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 48 CPBC 43 BCG 2 BCU 0 2025-06-18

British Columbia | Odds of winning the most seats

CPBC 41% NDP 58% Tie 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG Tie June 18, 2025 2024-03-26 NDP 99% Tie <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 99% Tie <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 99% Tie <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% Tie <1% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 78% CPBC 19% Tie 3% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 97% CPBC 2% Tie 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 98% CPBC 1% Tie 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 86% CPBC 12% Tie 2% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 79% CPBC 18% Tie 3% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 79% CPBC 18% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 64% CPBC 31% Tie 5% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 63% CPBC 33% Tie 5% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 63% CPBC 33% Tie 5% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 64% CPBC 32% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 62% CPBC 33% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 58% CPBC 37% Tie 5% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 57% CPBC 39% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 56% CPBC 40% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 51% CPBC 45% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 54% CPBC 42% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 54% CPBC 41% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC 53% NDP 43% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC 53% NDP 43% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC 49% NDP 47% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 51% CPBC 45% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 60% CPBC 36% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 64% CPBC 32% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 73% CPBC 23% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 63% CPBC 33% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 60% CPBC 36% Tie 3% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 68% CPBC 31% Tie 2% BCG <1% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 67% CPBC 32% Tie 2% BCG <1% 2025-06-18 2024-03-26 NDP 67% CPBC 31% Tie 2% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 73% CPBC 25% Tie 2% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 79% CPBC 20% Tie 1% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 74% CPBC 25% Tie 2% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 75% CPBC 24% Tie 2% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 73% CPBC 25% Tie 1% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 67% CPBC 29% Tie 5% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 81% CPBC 15% Tie 4% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 59% CPBC 39% Tie 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 58% CPBC 41% Tie 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-20

British Columbia | Odds of election outcome

CPBC majority 40% CPBC minority 2% NDP majority 56% NDP minority 2% Tie 1% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2024 CPBC majority CPBC minority NDP majority NDP minority Tie June 18, 2025 2024-03-26 NDP majority >99% Tie <1% NDP minority <1% CPBC minority <1% CPBC majority <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP majority >99% NDP minority <1% Tie <1% CPBC majority <1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP majority 77% CPBC majority 18% Tie 3% NDP minority 1% CPBC minority 1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP majority 96% CPBC majority 2% Tie 1% NDP minority 1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP majority 97% CPBC majority 1% NDP minority 1% Tie 1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP majority 83% CPBC majority 10% NDP minority 3% CPBC minority 2% Tie 2% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP majority 78% CPBC majority 17% Tie 3% NDP minority 1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP majority 78% CPBC majority 17% Tie 4% NDP minority <1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP majority 64% CPBC majority 31% Tie 5% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP majority 63% CPBC majority 32% Tie 5% NDP minority <1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP majority 62% CPBC majority 32% Tie 5% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP majority 64% CPBC majority 31% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP majority 62% CPBC majority 33% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP majority 58% CPBC majority 37% Tie 5% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP majority 57% CPBC majority 39% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP majority 56% CPBC majority 40% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP majority 51% CPBC majority 45% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP majority 54% CPBC majority 42% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP majority 54% CPBC majority 41% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC majority 53% NDP majority 43% Tie 4% NDP minority <1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC majority 53% NDP majority 43% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC majority 49% NDP majority 47% Tie 4% NDP minority <1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP majority 51% CPBC majority 44% Tie 4% NDP minority <1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP majority 60% CPBC majority 35% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP majority 64% CPBC majority 32% Tie 4% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP majority 73% CPBC majority 23% Tie 4% NDP minority <1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP majority 63% CPBC majority 32% Tie 4% NDP minority <1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP majority 59% CPBC majority 35% Tie 3% NDP minority 1% CPBC minority 1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP majority 63% CPBC majority 26% NDP minority 5% CPBC minority 4% Tie 2% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP majority 62% CPBC majority 27% NDP minority 5% CPBC minority 4% Tie 2% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP majority 61% CPBC majority 26% NDP minority 6% CPBC minority 5% Tie 2% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP majority 68% CPBC majority 21% NDP minority 5% CPBC minority 5% Tie 2% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP majority 73% CPBC majority 16% NDP minority 5% CPBC minority 4% Tie 1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP majority 69% CPBC majority 20% NDP minority 5% CPBC minority 5% Tie 2% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP majority 69% CPBC majority 19% NDP minority 5% CPBC minority 5% Tie 2% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP majority 68% CPBC majority 21% NDP minority 5% CPBC minority 5% Tie 1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP majority 55% CPBC majority 19% NDP minority 12% CPBC minority 9% Tie 5% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP majority 72% CPBC majority 9% NDP minority 9% CPBC minority 6% Tie 4% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP majority 57% CPBC majority 37% NDP minority 3% CPBC minority 3% Tie 1% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP majority 56% CPBC majority 40% NDP minority 2% CPBC minority 2% Tie 1% 2025-06-18