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Canada

Winnipeg West



Latest projection: November 17, 2024
CPC likely
Winnipeg West 48% ± 8%▲ CPC 31% ± 7% LPC 15% ± 5%▼ NDP 3% ± 2% GPC CPC 2021 40.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Winnipeg West >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | November 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Winnipeg West

LPC 31% ± 7% CPC 48% ± 8% NDP 15% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Winnipeg West 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 44% LPC 36% NDP 14% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 44% LPC 37% NDP 14% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 44% LPC 38% NDP 13% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 44% LPC 38% NDP 13% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 43% LPC 39% NDP 13% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 13% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 42% LPC 39% NDP 14% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 41% LPC 39% NDP 13% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 41% LPC 39% NDP 13% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 41% LPC 39% NDP 13% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 41% LPC 39% NDP 13% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 41% LPC 39% NDP 13% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 42% LPC 37% NDP 14% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 43% LPC 37% NDP 14% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 42% LPC 37% NDP 14% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 41% LPC 38% NDP 14% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 40% LPC 39% NDP 14% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 41% LPC 38% NDP 14% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 41% LPC 39% NDP 14% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 43% LPC 36% NDP 14% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 45% LPC 33% NDP 15% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 46% LPC 31% NDP 17% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 46% LPC 30% NDP 17% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 46% LPC 30% NDP 17% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 47% LPC 30% NDP 17% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 47% LPC 30% NDP 16% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 47% LPC 31% NDP 16% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 48% LPC 31% NDP 15% 2024-11-17

Odds of winning | Winnipeg West

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-17

Recent electoral history | Winnipeg West



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 41.5% 40.3% 48% ± 8% LPC 35.7% 39.2% 31% ± 7% NDP 13.6% 14.9% 15% ± 5% PPC 4.0% 3.4% 1% ± 2% GPC 4.6% 2.1% 3% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.