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Canada

Joliette—Manawan


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
BQ safe
Joliette—Manawan 54% ± 8% BQ 18% ± 5% LPC 12% ± 4% CPC 6% ± 3% NDP 3% ± 3% GPC BQ 2021 55.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Joliette—Manawan >99% BQ <1% LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Joliette—Manawan

LPC 18% ± 5% CPC 12% ± 4% NDP 6% ± 3% GPC 3% ± 3% BQ 54% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Joliette—Manawan 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 55% LPC 18% CPC 13% NDP 6% GPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 57% LPC 18% CPC 12% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 56% LPC 18% CPC 12% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 54% LPC 19% CPC 13% NDP 6% GPC 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 53% LPC 20% CPC 13% NDP 6% GPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 52% LPC 20% CPC 14% NDP 6% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 54% LPC 18% CPC 13% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 54% LPC 18% CPC 13% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 54% LPC 18% CPC 12% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 54% LPC 18% CPC 12% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 54% LPC 18% CPC 12% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Joliette—Manawan

LPC <1% NDP <1% BQ >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP BQ July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Joliette—Manawan



2019 2021 Proj. BQ 58.3% 55.1% 54% ± 8% LPC 22.5% 22.3% 18% ± 5% CPC 8.9% 9.5% 12% ± 4% NDP 4.7% 5.8% 6% ± 3% PPC 0.9% 3.0% 2% ± 3% GPC 4.0% 2.0% 3% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.