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Canada

Joliette—Manawan


MP elect: Gabriel Ste-Marie (BQ)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
BQ safe

Candidates | Joliette—Manawan


Liberal Marc Allaire
Conservative Pascal Bapfou Vozang Siewe
NDP Vanessa Gordon
Green Erica Poirier
Bloc Quebecois Gabriel Ste-Marie*

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Joliette—Manawan 49% ± 6% BQ 31% ± 6% LPC 15% ± 4% CPC BQ 2025 49.3% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Joliette—Manawan >99% BQ <1% LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Joliette—Manawan

LPC 31% ± 6% CPC 15% ± 4% BQ 49% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Joliette—Manawan 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC BQ May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 56% LPC 15% CPC 14% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 56% LPC 15% CPC 15% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 55% LPC 16% CPC 15% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 55% LPC 16% CPC 14% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 52% LPC 19% CPC 14% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 51% LPC 21% CPC 14% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 50% LPC 22% CPC 14% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ 48% LPC 25% CPC 14% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 47% LPC 25% CPC 14% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 46% LPC 27% CPC 14% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 45% LPC 29% CPC 13% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 45% LPC 29% CPC 13% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 45% LPC 29% CPC 13% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 45% LPC 29% CPC 13% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 45% LPC 29% CPC 13% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 45% LPC 29% CPC 13% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 44% LPC 31% CPC 12% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 44% LPC 32% CPC 12% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 43% LPC 32% CPC 13% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 42% LPC 33% CPC 13% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 41% LPC 34% CPC 13% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 41% LPC 34% CPC 13% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 41% LPC 34% CPC 13% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 41% LPC 35% CPC 13% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 40% LPC 36% CPC 14% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ 40% LPC 36% CPC 14% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 41% LPC 36% CPC 13% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ 41% LPC 36% CPC 13% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ 40% LPC 36% CPC 13% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ 40% LPC 37% CPC 13% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ 41% LPC 37% CPC 13% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 41% LPC 36% CPC 12% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 47% LPC 34% CPC 13% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 46% LPC 34% CPC 13% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 47% LPC 34% CPC 13% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 46% LPC 34% CPC 14% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 47% LPC 33% CPC 14% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 46% LPC 34% CPC 14% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 46% LPC 34% CPC 13% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 46% LPC 34% CPC 13% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 47% LPC 33% CPC 13% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 47% LPC 33% CPC 13% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 47% LPC 33% CPC 13% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 48% LPC 32% CPC 14% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 49% LPC 32% CPC 14% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ 48% LPC 31% CPC 14% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 48% LPC 31% CPC 14% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 48% LPC 31% CPC 14% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ 48% LPC 31% CPC 15% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 48% LPC 30% CPC 15% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 48% LPC 31% CPC 15% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ 49% LPC 31% CPC 15% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ 49% LPC 31% CPC 15% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ 49% LPC 31% CPC 15% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ 49% LPC 31% CPC 15% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Joliette—Manawan

LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Joliette—Manawan



2019 2021 2025 Proj. BQ 49% ± 6% 58.3% 55.1% 49.3% LPC 31% ± 6% 22.5% 22.3% 31.3% CPC 15% ± 4% 8.9% 9.5% 15.2% NDP 2% ± 2% 4.7% 5.8% 2.5% GPC 2% ± 1% 4.0% 2.0% 1.8% PPC 0% ± 0% 0.9% 3.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.