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Canada

Tobique—Mactaquac



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | Tobique—Mactaquac


Liberal Julian Moulton
Conservative Richard Bragdon*
NDP Michael Winter
Green Liam MacDougall
PPC Vern Brundle

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Tobique—Mactaquac 53% ± 9% CPC 37% ± 9% LPC 5% ± 4% NDP 3% ± 3% GPC CPC 2021 52.8% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Tobique—Mactaquac 98% CPC 2% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Tobique—Mactaquac

LPC 37% ± 9% CPC 53% ± 9% NDP 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Tobique—Mactaquac 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 52% LPC 26% NDP 11% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 50% LPC 29% NDP 10% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 46% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 46% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 47% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 47% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 47% LPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 50% LPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 51% LPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 52% LPC 38% NDP 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 52% LPC 37% NDP 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 53% LPC 37% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 52% LPC 38% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 52% LPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 51% LPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 51% LPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 52% LPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 52% LPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 52% LPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 52% LPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 52% LPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 53% LPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 53% LPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Tobique—Mactaquac

LPC 2% CPC 98% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Tobique—Mactaquac



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 52.0% 52.8% 53% ± 9% LPC 22.4% 22.6% 37% ± 9% NDP 7.7% 11.5% 5% ± 4% GPC 15.3% 4.9% 3% ± 3% PPC 2.4% 7.2% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.