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Canada

Tobique—Mactaquac


MP: Richard Bragdon (CPC)

Latest projection: June 1, 2025
CPC likely

Recent electoral history | Tobique—Mactaquac


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 59% ± 9% 52.0% 52.8% 58.8% LPC 36% ± 8% 22.4% 22.6% 35.9% NDP 2% ± 2% 7.7% 11.5% 2.0% GPC 2% ± 2% 15.3% 4.9% 2.0% PPC 1% ± 2% 2.4% 7.2% 1.3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.



Tobique—Mactaquac 59% ± 9% CPC 36% ± 8% LPC CPC 2025 58.8% 338Canada vote projection | June 1, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Tobique—Mactaquac >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 1, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Tobique—Mactaquac

LPC 36% ± 8% CPC 59% ± 9% Popular vote projection % | Tobique—Mactaquac 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 65% LPC 14% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 65% LPC 14% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 65% LPC 14% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 64% LPC 15% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 62% LPC 17% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 60% LPC 20% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 59% LPC 21% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 52% LPC 26% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 52% LPC 26% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 50% LPC 29% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 49% LPC 35% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 49% LPC 35% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 49% LPC 35% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 49% LPC 35% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 48% LPC 35% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 48% LPC 35% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 46% LPC 38% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 46% LPC 38% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 47% LPC 38% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 47% LPC 38% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 47% LPC 39% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 48% LPC 39% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 50% LPC 37% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 51% LPC 37% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 52% LPC 38% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 52% LPC 37% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 53% LPC 37% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 52% LPC 38% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 52% LPC 38% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 51% LPC 38% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 51% LPC 38% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 52% LPC 37% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 52% LPC 38% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 52% LPC 38% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 52% LPC 38% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 52% LPC 37% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 53% LPC 37% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 53% LPC 37% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 52% LPC 38% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 52% LPC 38% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 52% LPC 38% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 52% LPC 38% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 52% LPC 38% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 52% LPC 38% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 53% LPC 37% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 54% LPC 37% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 55% LPC 36% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 55% LPC 36% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 55% LPC 36% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 55% LPC 36% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 54% LPC 38% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 59% LPC 36% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 59% LPC 36% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 59% LPC 36% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 59% LPC 36% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 59% LPC 36% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Tobique—Mactaquac

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader