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Canada


London West (federal)


MP: Arielle Kayabaga (LPC)


Latest projection: October 1, 2023

CPC likely gain
London West 39% ± 7%▲ 32% ± 6% 25% ± 6% 3% ± 3% LPC 2021 36.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 1, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% London West 90%▲ 10%▼ <1% Odds of winning | October 1, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | London West

LPC 32% ± 6% CPC 39% ± 7% NDP 25% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | London West 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 LPC CPC NDP

Odds of winning | London West

LPC 10% CPC 90% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | London West



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 45.8% 43.0% 36.8% 32% ± 6% CPC 35.3% 27.9% 32.49% 39% ± 7% NDP 14.8% 21.4% 24.43% 25% ± 6% PPC 0.0% 1.6% 5.08% 3% ± 3% GPC 2.8% 5.4% 0.0% 2% ± 1%