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Saskatoon South



Latest projection: April 14, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | Saskatoon South


Liberal Rokhan Sarwar
Conservative Kevin Waugh*
NDP Jacob Gadzella
Green Hamish Graham
PPC Richard Brent Wintringham

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Saskatoon South 48% ± 9% CPC 35% ± 8% LPC 14% ± 6% NDP CPC 2021 49.2% 338Canada vote projection | April 14, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saskatoon South 98%▲ CPC 2%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 14, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Saskatoon South

LPC 35% ± 8% CPC 48% ± 9% NDP 14% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Saskatoon South 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 14, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 52% NDP 23% LPC 19% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 50% NDP 22% LPC 22% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 51% LPC 26% NDP 18% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 50% LPC 27% NDP 18% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 50% LPC 27% NDP 18% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 50% LPC 27% NDP 18% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 50% LPC 27% NDP 18% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 51% LPC 27% NDP 18% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 51% LPC 29% NDP 15% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 51% LPC 30% NDP 15% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 51% LPC 30% NDP 15% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 51% LPC 30% NDP 16% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 50% LPC 30% NDP 16% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 50% LPC 30% NDP 16% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 50% LPC 30% NDP 16% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 51% LPC 30% NDP 16% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 50% LPC 31% NDP 16% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 50% LPC 31% NDP 16% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 50% LPC 31% NDP 16% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 50% LPC 32% NDP 16% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 49% LPC 32% NDP 16% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 49% LPC 32% NDP 16% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 49% LPC 32% NDP 15% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 14% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 15% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 14% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 47% LPC 35% NDP 14% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 14% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 14% 2025-04-14 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Saskatoon South

LPC 2% CPC 98% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 14, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Saskatoon South



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 52.6% 49.2% 48% ± 9% LPC 17.3% 14.4% 35% ± 8% NDP 26.1% 30.6% 14% ± 6% GPC 2.6% 1.2% 2% ± 2% PPC 1.4% 4.5% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.