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Canada

Saskatoon South


MP elect: Kevin Waugh (CPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | Saskatoon South


Liberal Rokhan Sarwar
Conservative Kevin Waugh*
NDP Jacob Gadzella
Green Hamish Graham
PPC Richard Brent Wintringham

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Saskatoon South 49% ± 7% CPC 40% ± 7% LPC 9% ± 4% NDP CPC 2025 49.3% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saskatoon South 94%▼ CPC 6%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Saskatoon South

LPC 40% ± 7% CPC 49% ± 7% NDP 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Saskatoon South 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 59% NDP 27% LPC 10% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 58% NDP 27% LPC 11% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 57% NDP 27% LPC 11% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 56% NDP 27% LPC 12% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 55% NDP 27% LPC 14% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 55% NDP 25% LPC 15% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 56% NDP 23% LPC 16% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 52% NDP 23% LPC 19% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 52% NDP 23% LPC 19% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 50% NDP 22% LPC 22% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 51% LPC 26% NDP 18% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 50% LPC 27% NDP 18% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 50% LPC 27% NDP 18% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 50% LPC 27% NDP 18% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 50% LPC 27% NDP 18% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 51% LPC 27% NDP 18% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 51% LPC 29% NDP 15% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 51% LPC 30% NDP 15% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 51% LPC 30% NDP 15% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 51% LPC 30% NDP 16% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 50% LPC 30% NDP 16% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 50% LPC 30% NDP 16% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 50% LPC 30% NDP 16% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 51% LPC 30% NDP 16% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 50% LPC 31% NDP 16% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 50% LPC 31% NDP 16% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 50% LPC 31% NDP 16% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 50% LPC 32% NDP 16% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 49% LPC 32% NDP 16% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 49% LPC 32% NDP 16% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 49% LPC 32% NDP 15% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 14% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 15% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 14% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 47% LPC 35% NDP 14% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 14% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 14% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 14% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 48% LPC 34% NDP 14% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 14% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 14% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 15% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 47% LPC 36% NDP 14% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 47% LPC 36% NDP 14% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 47% LPC 36% NDP 14% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 47% LPC 36% NDP 14% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 47% LPC 36% NDP 14% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 47% LPC 36% NDP 14% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 47% LPC 36% NDP 14% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 46% LPC 36% NDP 14% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 46% LPC 37% NDP 13% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 49% LPC 40% NDP 9% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 49% LPC 40% NDP 9% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 49% LPC 40% NDP 9% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 49% LPC 40% NDP 9% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Saskatoon South

LPC 6% CPC 94% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Saskatoon South



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 49% ± 7% 52.6% 49.2% 49.3% LPC 40% ± 7% 17.3% 14.4% 40.4% NDP 9% ± 4% 26.1% 30.6% 9.1% GPC 1% ± 1% 2.6% 1.2% 0.6% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.4% 4.5% 0.6%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.