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Canada

Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke


MP elect: Stephanie McLean (LPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke


Liberal Stephanie McLean
Conservative Grant Cool
NDP Maja Tait
Green Ben Homer-Dixon
Christian Heritage David Schaafsma
Communist Robert Crooks

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke 49% ± 0%▲ LPC 29% ± 0%▼ CPC 19% ± 0%▼ NDP 3% ± 0%▼ GPC LPC 2025 49.4% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke >99%▲ LPC <1%▼ CPC <1%▼ NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke

LPC 49% ± 0% CPC 29% ± 0% NDP 19% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 NDP 32% CPC 30% LPC 26% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 31% CPC 30% LPC 27% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 32% CPC 31% NDP 26% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 32% CPC 30% NDP 27% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 33% CPC 30% NDP 27% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 33% CPC 31% NDP 26% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 33% CPC 30% NDP 26% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 34% CPC 30% NDP 26% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 33% CPC 30% NDP 27% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 34% CPC 30% NDP 26% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 34% CPC 30% NDP 26% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 31% CPC 30% NDP 29% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 31% CPC 30% NDP 29% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 32% CPC 30% NDP 29% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 32% CPC 30% NDP 29% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 32% NDP 30% CPC 30% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 33% NDP 31% CPC 30% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 33% NDP 30% CPC 30% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 33% NDP 31% CPC 30% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 33% NDP 30% CPC 30% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 33% CPC 30% NDP 30% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 33% CPC 31% NDP 30% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 33% CPC 31% NDP 29% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 32% LPC 32% NDP 29% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 33% CPC 32% NDP 28% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 33% CPC 32% NDP 29% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 33% CPC 32% NDP 29% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 33% CPC 31% NDP 29% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 32% CPC 31% NDP 29% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 32% CPC 32% NDP 29% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 32% CPC 32% NDP 29% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 33% CPC 32% NDP 28% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 32% CPC 32% NDP 29% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 32% CPC 32% NDP 29% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 33% CPC 32% NDP 28% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 32% NDP 31% LPC 29% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 33% NDP 31% LPC 28% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 33% NDP 31% LPC 29% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 33% NDP 30% LPC 29% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 34% NDP 30% LPC 29% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 34% LPC 29% NDP 29% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 34% LPC 30% NDP 29% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 34% LPC 30% NDP 28% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 49% CPC 29% NDP 19% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 NDP 63% LPC 5% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 53% LPC 8% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 56% NDP 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 62% NDP 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 64% NDP 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 65% NDP 4% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 70% NDP 3% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 73% NDP 2% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 70% NDP 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 72% NDP 4% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 73% NDP 4% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 45% NDP 19% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 49% NDP 19% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 52% NDP 18% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 50% NDP 17% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 54% NDP 25% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 53% NDP 28% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 62% NDP 23% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 55% NDP 26% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 54% NDP 25% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 52% NDP 25% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 51% NDP 20% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 52% NDP 15% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 43% NDP 12% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 48% NDP 11% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 49% NDP 13% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 51% NDP 13% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 52% NDP 14% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 46% NDP 19% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 45% NDP 17% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 48% NDP 15% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 48% NDP 11% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 49% NDP 15% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 48% NDP 12% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 47% NDP 9% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 NDP 33% LPC 15% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 NDP 35% LPC 7% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 NDP 28% LPC 10% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 NDP 22% LPC 13% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 NDP 19% LPC 14% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 NDP 15% LPC 14% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 15% NDP 12% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 17% NDP 8% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 49% ± 0% 17.7% 21.9% 49.4% CPC 29% ± 0% 18.8% 21.0% 28.6% NDP 19% ± 0% 34.7% 43.2% 18.8% GPC 3% ± 0% 26.3% 8.9% 2.8% IND 0% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.6% 4.6% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.