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Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke

Latest update: March 1, 2026
L
MP: Stephanie McLean
British Columbia
LPC safe
Projection — Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke → Demographic data — Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke → Regional projection — British Columbia → All federal districts → Federal projection map → Federal polls → Back to 338Canada home → Riding roulette! →

Recent electoral history | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 51% ± 6% 17.7% 21.9% 49.3% CPC 26% ± 5% 18.8% 21.0% 28.7% NDP 17% ± 5% 34.7% 43.2% 18.6% GPC 4% ± 3% 26.3% 8.9% 2.7% PPC 0% ± 1% 1.6% 4.6% 0.0%

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338Canada Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke projection

Latest update: March 1, 2026

Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke 45% 58% 51% ± 6% LPC 21% 32% 26% ± 5% ▼ CPC 12% 22% 17% ± 5% NDP 1% 7% 4% ± 3% GPC LPC 2025 49.3% 338Canada vote projection | March 1, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 1, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke

LPC 51% ± 6% CPC 26% ± 5% NDP 17% ± 5% GPC 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC IND March 1, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 34% LPC 29% NDP 29% GPC 5% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 34% LPC 30% NDP 29% GPC 5% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 34% LPC 30% NDP 28% GPC 5% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 49% CPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 49% CPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 49% CPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 49% CPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 49% CPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 49% CPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 48% CPC 30% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 48% CPC 29% NDP 20% GPC 3% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 48% CPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 48% CPC 29% NDP 20% GPC 3% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 49% CPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 50% CPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 50% CPC 27% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 50% CPC 27% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 49% CPC 27% NDP 20% GPC 3% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 50% CPC 27% NDP 20% GPC 3% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 49% CPC 27% NDP 20% GPC 3% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 49% CPC 27% NDP 20% GPC 3% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 48% CPC 28% NDP 20% GPC 3% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 49% CPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 50% CPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 49% CPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 49% CPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 49% CPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 50% CPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 50% CPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 50% CPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 49% CPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 49% CPC 29% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 48% CPC 30% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 48% CPC 30% NDP 19% GPC 3% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 46% CPC 30% NDP 20% GPC 3% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 46% CPC 30% NDP 20% GPC 3% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 46% CPC 30% NDP 21% GPC 3% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 44% CPC 28% NDP 23% GPC 4% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 44% CPC 28% NDP 23% GPC 4% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 44% CPC 28% NDP 23% GPC 4% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC 44% CPC 28% NDP 23% GPC 4% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC 45% CPC 27% NDP 22% GPC 4% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC 48% CPC 28% NDP 19% GPC 5% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC 49% CPC 28% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 LPC 51% CPC 27% NDP 17% GPC 4% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 LPC 51% CPC 27% NDP 17% GPC 4% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 LPC 51% CPC 26% NDP 17% GPC 4% 2026-03-01

Odds of winning | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP March 1, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 71% NDP 15% LPC 14% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 73% LPC 15% NDP 12% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 75% LPC 17% NDP 8% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-03-01


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Demographic data | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 93.9% English 0.9% Punjabi 0.7% French 0.6% Tagalog 0.6% Mandarin 0.5% Cantonese 0.5% SpanishEsquimalt—Saanich—SookeSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 8.0% No diploma 27.8% High school 9.2% Trade 22.0% College / Cégep 3.2% Some university 19.6% Bachelor's 10.2% PostgraduateEsquimalt—Saanich—SookeSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 85.2% Not visible minority 14.8% Visible minority 3.4% South Asian 3.0% Chinese 2.3% Filipino 1.4% Black 1.2% Southeast Asian 0.9% Latin AmericanEsquimalt—Saanich—SookeSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 61.4% No Religion 10.3% Catholic 7.0% Christian (n.o.s.) 4.6% Anglican 3.0% United Church 1.9% Other Christian 1.5% Other Religions 1.4% SikhEsquimalt—Saanich—SookeSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 67.7% Owner 32.1% Renter 0.1% Community housingEsquimalt—Saanich—SookeSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 60.8% Employed 35.0% Not in labour force 4.1% UnemployedEsquimalt—Saanich—SookeSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 94.0% Non-Indigenous 6.0% Indigenous identity 3.3% First Nations 2.4% Metis 0.1% Multiple 0.1% OthersEsquimalt—Saanich—SookeSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 79.2% Car / truck / van 7.7% Public transit 5.8% Walking 4.2% Bicycle 3.1% OtherEsquimalt—Saanich—SookeSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.