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Canada


Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke


Latest projection: May 19, 2024
Toss up CPC/NDP
Note: The terms "hold" and "gain" are used to compare current projections with transposed 2021 results onto the new electoral map.
Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke 36% ± 7% NDP 36% ± 7% CPC 14% ± 4% LPC 11% ± 5% GPC 3% ± 3% PPC NDP 2021 43.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 19, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke 57%▲ NDP 43%▼ CPC <1% LPC Odds of winning | May 19, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke

LPC 14% ± 4% CPC 36% ± 7% NDP 36% ± 7% GPC 11% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC May 19, 2024

Odds of winning | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke

LPC <1% CPC 43% NDP 57% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP May 19, 2024

Recent electoral history | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke



2019 2021 Proj. NDP 34.7% 43.2% 36% ± 7% LPC 17.7% 21.9% 14% ± 4% CPC 18.8% 21.0% 36% ± 7% GPC 26.3% 8.9% 11% ± 5% PPC 1.6% 4.6% 3% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.