logo
logo
Canada

Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
NDP likely
Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke 39% ± 7% NDP 31% ± 7% CPC 15% ± 5% LPC 11% ± 5% GPC 3% ± 4% PPC NDP 2021 43.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke 92% NDP 8% CPC <1% LPC Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke

LPC 15% ± 5% CPC 31% ± 7% NDP 39% ± 7% GPC 11% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 36% NDP 36% LPC 14% GPC 11% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 NDP 36% CPC 36% LPC 14% GPC 11% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 NDP 37% CPC 35% LPC 14% GPC 11% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 NDP 37% CPC 34% LPC 15% GPC 11% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 NDP 38% CPC 33% LPC 15% GPC 11% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 NDP 38% CPC 33% LPC 15% GPC 11% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 39% CPC 32% LPC 15% GPC 10% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 NDP 39% CPC 31% LPC 15% GPC 11% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 NDP 39% CPC 31% LPC 15% GPC 11% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 NDP 39% CPC 31% LPC 15% GPC 11% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 NDP 39% CPC 31% LPC 15% GPC 11% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke

LPC <1% CPC 8% NDP 92% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 51% NDP 49% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 NDP 57% CPC 43% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 NDP 67% CPC 33% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 NDP 74% CPC 26% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 NDP 80% CPC 20% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 NDP 78% CPC 22% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 89% CPC 11% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 NDP 92% CPC 8% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 NDP 91% CPC 9% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 NDP 92% CPC 8% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 NDP 92% CPC 8% LPC <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke



2019 2021 Proj. NDP 34.7% 43.2% 39% ± 7% LPC 17.7% 21.9% 15% ± 5% CPC 18.8% 21.0% 31% ± 7% GPC 26.3% 8.9% 11% ± 5% PPC 1.6% 4.6% 3% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.