logo
Canada

Skeena—Bulkley Valley


MP: Ellis Ross (CPC)

Latest projection: July 6, 2025
CPC leaning

Recent electoral history | Skeena—Bulkley Valley


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 46% ± 9% 33.2% 36.1% 47.2% NDP 41% ± 9% 40.9% 42.6% 39.3% LPC 11% ± 5% 11.6% 7.7% 11.0% GPC 1% ± 2% 7.9% 3.8% 1.2% PPC 0% ± 0% 2.3% 7.7% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Skeena—Bulkley Valley


Skeena—Bulkley Valley 46% ± 9%▼ CPC 41% ± 9%▲ NDP 11% ± 5%▲ LPC CPC 2025 47.2% 338Canada vote projection | July 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Skeena—Bulkley Valley 76%▼ CPC 24%▲ NDP <1% LPC Odds of winning | July 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Skeena—Bulkley Valley

LPC 11% ± 5% CPC 46% ± 9% NDP 41% ± 9% Popular vote projection % | Skeena—Bulkley Valley 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 53% NDP 35% LPC 3% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 55% NDP 34% LPC 4% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 54% NDP 34% LPC 4% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 54% NDP 33% LPC 4% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 54% NDP 32% LPC 6% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 52% NDP 32% LPC 7% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 53% NDP 30% LPC 8% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 48% NDP 32% LPC 10% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 48% NDP 32% LPC 10% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 48% NDP 31% LPC 11% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 49% NDP 27% LPC 16% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 49% NDP 27% LPC 16% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 49% NDP 27% LPC 16% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 49% NDP 27% LPC 16% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 49% NDP 27% LPC 16% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 49% NDP 26% LPC 17% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 48% NDP 27% LPC 17% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 48% NDP 27% LPC 17% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 48% NDP 27% LPC 17% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 48% NDP 27% LPC 17% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 48% NDP 27% LPC 18% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 48% NDP 27% LPC 18% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 48% NDP 27% LPC 18% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 47% NDP 28% LPC 19% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 47% NDP 29% LPC 19% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 47% NDP 29% LPC 20% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 47% NDP 29% LPC 20% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 47% NDP 29% LPC 19% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 47% NDP 28% LPC 19% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 48% NDP 28% LPC 19% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 48% NDP 27% LPC 20% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 48% NDP 27% LPC 20% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 47% NDP 26% LPC 21% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 47% NDP 27% LPC 21% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 47% NDP 27% LPC 21% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 46% NDP 27% LPC 21% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 46% NDP 27% LPC 21% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 46% NDP 27% LPC 21% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 47% NDP 27% LPC 21% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 45% NDP 28% LPC 21% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 44% NDP 29% LPC 21% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 44% NDP 29% LPC 21% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 45% NDP 28% LPC 21% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 45% NDP 28% LPC 22% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 46% NDP 29% LPC 20% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 46% NDP 28% LPC 21% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 46% NDP 27% LPC 21% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 47% NDP 27% LPC 21% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 47% NDP 27% LPC 21% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 47% NDP 26% LPC 21% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 49% NDP 28% LPC 18% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 47% NDP 39% LPC 11% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 47% NDP 39% LPC 11% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 47% NDP 39% LPC 11% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 47% NDP 39% LPC 11% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 47% NDP 39% LPC 11% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 47% NDP 39% LPC 11% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 48% NDP 40% LPC 10% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 47% NDP 40% LPC 10% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 47% NDP 40% LPC 10% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 46% NDP 41% LPC 11% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Skeena—Bulkley Valley

LPC <1% CPC 76% NDP 24% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 95% NDP 5% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 95% NDP 5% LPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 94% NDP 6% LPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 92% NDP 8% LPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 85% NDP 15% LPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 85% NDP 15% LPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 85% NDP 15% LPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 82% NDP 18% LPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 82% NDP 18% LPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 76% NDP 24% LPC <1% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader