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Canada

Skeena—Bulkley Valley



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
CPC likely
Skeena—Bulkley Valley 51% ± 9%▼ CPC 36% ± 8% NDP 7% ± 4% GPC 4% ± 3% LPC NDP 2021 42.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Skeena—Bulkley Valley 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% GPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Skeena—Bulkley Valley

LPC 4% ± 3% CPC 51% ± 9% NDP 36% ± 8% GPC 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Skeena—Bulkley Valley 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 58% NDP 31% GPC 7% LPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 57% NDP 31% GPC 7% LPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 56% NDP 32% GPC 7% LPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 55% NDP 33% GPC 7% LPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 55% NDP 33% GPC 7% LPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 55% NDP 33% GPC 7% LPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 54% NDP 35% GPC 7% LPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 52% NDP 35% GPC 7% LPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 53% NDP 34% GPC 7% LPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 52% NDP 35% GPC 7% LPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 52% NDP 35% GPC 7% LPC 3% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 52% NDP 35% GPC 7% LPC 3% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 52% NDP 35% GPC 7% LPC 3% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 52% NDP 35% GPC 7% LPC 3% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 52% NDP 35% GPC 7% LPC 3% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 52% NDP 35% GPC 7% LPC 3% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 54% NDP 33% GPC 7% LPC 3% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 54% NDP 33% GPC 7% LPC 3% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 52% NDP 34% GPC 7% LPC 4% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 52% NDP 34% GPC 7% LPC 4% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 51% NDP 35% GPC 7% LPC 4% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 52% NDP 35% GPC 7% LPC 4% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 51% NDP 36% GPC 7% LPC 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 50% NDP 36% GPC 7% LPC 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 50% NDP 37% GPC 7% LPC 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 50% NDP 36% GPC 7% LPC 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 51% NDP 35% GPC 7% LPC 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 52% NDP 35% GPC 7% LPC 4% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 52% NDP 35% GPC 7% LPC 4% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 52% NDP 34% GPC 7% LPC 4% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 52% NDP 36% GPC 7% LPC 4% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 51% NDP 36% GPC 7% LPC 4% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Skeena—Bulkley Valley

LPC <1% CPC 99% NDP 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Skeena—Bulkley Valley



2019 2021 Proj. NDP 40.9% 42.6% 36% ± 8% CPC 33.2% 36.1% 51% ± 9% PPC 2.3% 7.7% 2% ± 3% LPC 11.6% 7.7% 4% ± 3% GPC 7.9% 3.8% 7% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.