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Canada

Niagara South


MP: Fred Davies (CPC)

Latest projection: July 6, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC

Recent electoral history | Niagara South


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 46% ± 8% 33.3% 33.4% 47.8% LPC 44% ± 8% 32.7% 33.0% 43.9% NDP 7% ± 3% 25.5% 22.8% 5.6% PPC 1% ± 2% 1.4% 8.9% 1.5% GPC 1% ± 1% 5.3% 1.9% 0.9%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Niagara-Sud


Niagara South 46% ± 8%▼ CPC 44% ± 8% LPC 7% ± 3%▲ NDP CPC 2025 47.8% 338Canada vote projection | July 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Niagara South 63%▲ CPC 37%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Niagara South

LPC 44% ± 8% CPC 46% ± 8% NDP 7% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Niagara South 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 49% NDP 25% LPC 18% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 48% NDP 24% LPC 19% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 48% NDP 24% LPC 19% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 46% LPC 23% NDP 23% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 45% LPC 25% NDP 21% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 44% LPC 29% NDP 18% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 43% LPC 31% NDP 17% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 43% LPC 32% NDP 16% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 44% LPC 32% NDP 16% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 43% LPC 34% NDP 15% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 42% LPC 36% NDP 14% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 41% LPC 37% NDP 14% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 41% LPC 37% NDP 14% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 41% LPC 37% NDP 14% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 41% LPC 37% NDP 14% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 41% LPC 37% NDP 14% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 41% LPC 40% NDP 12% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 41% LPC 40% NDP 12% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 41% CPC 41% NDP 11% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 42% CPC 41% NDP 11% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 42% CPC 41% NDP 10% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 42% CPC 41% NDP 10% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 42% LPC 42% NDP 10% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 43% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 44% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 45% CPC 41% NDP 9% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 45% CPC 41% NDP 9% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 45% CPC 41% NDP 9% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 45% CPC 41% NDP 9% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 44% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 44% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 45% CPC 41% NDP 9% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 44% CPC 40% NDP 9% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 44% CPC 41% NDP 9% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 44% CPC 40% NDP 9% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 44% CPC 41% NDP 9% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 44% CPC 41% NDP 9% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 44% CPC 40% NDP 9% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 44% CPC 40% NDP 9% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 43% CPC 41% NDP 9% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 43% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 43% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 43% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 44% CPC 41% NDP 9% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 44% CPC 40% NDP 9% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 44% CPC 40% NDP 9% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 44% CPC 41% NDP 9% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 44% CPC 41% NDP 9% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 44% CPC 41% NDP 9% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 44% CPC 41% NDP 9% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 42% CPC 42% NDP 10% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 47% LPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 46% LPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 47% LPC 44% NDP 6% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 46% LPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Niagara South

LPC 37% CPC 63% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader