- 338 Home▼
- 338 Blog
- Find your federal riding▼
- Parties▼
- Canada Map
- Canada Polls
- Federal simulator
- 338 Pollster Ratings
- The Record So Far
- Methodology
- About 338
- Français
-
Toronto
Beaches–East York Davenport Don Valley East Don Valley North Don Valley West Eglinton–Lawrence Etobicoke Centre Etobicoke–Lakeshore Etobicoke North Parkdale–High Park Toronto–St. Paul's Scarborough–Agincourt Scarborough Centre Scarborough–Guildwood Scarborough North Scarborough–Rouge Park Scarborough Southwest Spadina–Fort York Toronto Centre Toronto–Danforth University–Rosedale Willowdale York Centre York South–Weston Humber River–Black Creek
-
GTA-905
Ajax Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Brampton Centre Brampton East Brampton North Brampton South Brampton West Burlington Durham King–Vaughan Markham–Stouffville Markham–Thornhill Markham–Unionville Milton Mississauga Centre Mississauga East–Cooksville Mississauga–Erin Mills Mississauga–Lakeshore Mississauga–Malton Mississauga–Streetsville Newmarket–Aurora Oakville Oakville North–Burlington Oshawa Pickering–Uxbridge Richmond Hill Thornhill Vaughan–Woodbridge Whitby York–Simcoe
- Ottawa
- Eastern Ontario
- Hamilton-Niagara
-
Southwestern Ontario
Brantford–Brant Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound Cambridge Chatham-Kent–Leamington Elgin–Middlesex–London Essex Guelph Haldimand–Norfolk Huron–Bruce Kitchener Centre Kitchener–Conestoga Kitchener South–Hespeler Lambton–Kent–Middlesex London–Fanshawe London North Centre London West Oxford Perth–Wellington Sarnia–Lambton Waterloo Wellington–Halton Hills Windsor–Tecumseh Windsor West
- Centre of Ontario
- Northern Ontario
35071 - Northumberland–Peterborough South
| Province: | Ontario |
| Population (2016): | 112,415 residents |
| Population density: | 41.2 pop./km² (rank: 222 of 338) |
| Median household income: | $73 019 (rank: 140 of 338) |
| Member of Parliament: | Philip Lawrence (CPC) |
Latest projection (September 20, 2021)
- 2021 Candidates
- Federal vote projection
- Odds of winning
- Recent electoral history
- Projections vs 2019 Results
2021 Candidates | Northumberland–Peterborough South
 |
Alison Lester |
 |
Philip Lawrence |
 |
Kim McArthur-Jackson |
 |
Christina Wilson |
 |
Nathan Lang |
- 2021 Candidates
- Federal vote projection
- Odds of winning
- Recent electoral history
- Projections vs 2019 Results
Federal vote projection | Northumberland–Peterborough South
Last update: September 20, 2021- 2021 Candidates
- Federal vote projection
- Odds of winning
- Recent electoral history
- Projections vs 2019 Results
Odds of winning | Northumberland–Peterborough South
Last update: September 20, 2021- 2021 Candidates
- Federal vote projection
- Odds of winning
- Recent electoral history
- Projections vs 2019 Results
Electoral history of Northumberland–Peterborough South
(Results of 2011 election have been transposed on the new electoral map. Thanks to Kyle Hutton for his precious help.)
- 2021 Candidates
- Federal vote projection
- Odds of winning
- Recent electoral history
- Projections vs 2019 Results
Projections vs results: How did the projections do in 2019? | Northumberland–Peterborough South
On the graph above, colored bar represent the final 338Canada projections for the 2019 federal election. The triangle markers indicates the results
in this electoral districts. Only parties that won at least 8% of the vote (or were projected above 8%) are listed.
Northumberland–Peterborough South
| Final 2019 Projection | 2019 Result | The Record | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | |
|
Correct winner |
|
36.6% ± 8.2% | 39.7% | Within confidence interval |
|
35.4% ± 8.1% | 36.2% | Within confidence interval |
|
16.5% ± 5.7% | 13.9% | Within confidence interval |
|
8.5% ± 3.5% | 8.0% | Within confidence interval |
*Only parties that won at least 8% of the popular vote
in this electoral district (or were projected above 8%) are indicated.
- 2021 Candidates
- Federal vote projection
- Odds of winning
- Recent electoral history
- Projections vs 2019 Results
-
Toronto
Beaches–East York Davenport Don Valley East Don Valley North Don Valley West Eglinton–Lawrence Etobicoke Centre Etobicoke–Lakeshore Etobicoke North Parkdale–High Park Toronto–St. Paul's Scarborough–Agincourt Scarborough Centre Scarborough–Guildwood Scarborough North Scarborough–Rouge Park Scarborough Southwest Spadina–Fort York Toronto Centre Toronto–Danforth University–Rosedale Willowdale York Centre York South–Weston Humber River–Black Creek
-
GTA-905
Ajax Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill Brampton Centre Brampton East Brampton North Brampton South Brampton West Burlington Durham King–Vaughan Markham–Stouffville Markham–Thornhill Markham–Unionville Milton Mississauga Centre Mississauga East–Cooksville Mississauga–Erin Mills Mississauga–Lakeshore Mississauga–Malton Mississauga–Streetsville Newmarket–Aurora Oakville Oakville North–Burlington Oshawa Pickering–Uxbridge Richmond Hill Thornhill Vaughan–Woodbridge Whitby York–Simcoe
- Ottawa
- Eastern Ontario
- Hamilton-Niagara
-
Southwestern Ontario
Brantford–Brant Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound Cambridge Chatham-Kent–Leamington Elgin–Middlesex–London Essex Guelph Haldimand–Norfolk Huron–Bruce Kitchener Centre Kitchener–Conestoga Kitchener South–Hespeler Lambton–Kent–Middlesex London–Fanshawe London North Centre London West Oxford Perth–Wellington Sarnia–Lambton Waterloo Wellington–Halton Hills Windsor–Tecumseh Windsor West
- Centre of Ontario
- Northern Ontario