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Canada

Niagara South



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC leaning

Candidates | Niagara South


Liberal Vance Badawey*
Conservative Fred Davies
NDP Chantal McCollum
Green Natashia Bergen
PPC Peter Taras
Christian Heritage David Vedova

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Niagara South 44% ± 8% LPC 40% ± 8%▼ CPC 9% ± 4% NDP 3% ± 3% PPC CPC 2021 33.4% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Niagara South 71%▲ LPC 29%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Niagara South

LPC 44% ± 8% CPC 40% ± 8% NDP 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Niagara South 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 44% LPC 32% NDP 16% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 43% LPC 34% NDP 15% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 42% LPC 36% NDP 14% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 41% LPC 37% NDP 14% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 41% LPC 37% NDP 14% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 41% LPC 37% NDP 14% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 41% LPC 37% NDP 14% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 41% LPC 37% NDP 14% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 41% LPC 40% NDP 12% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 41% LPC 40% NDP 12% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 41% CPC 41% NDP 11% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 42% CPC 41% NDP 11% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 42% CPC 41% NDP 10% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 42% CPC 41% NDP 10% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 42% LPC 42% NDP 10% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 43% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 44% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 45% CPC 41% NDP 9% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 45% CPC 41% NDP 9% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 45% CPC 41% NDP 9% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 45% CPC 41% NDP 9% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 44% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 44% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 45% CPC 41% NDP 9% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 44% CPC 40% NDP 9% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 44% CPC 41% NDP 9% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 44% CPC 40% NDP 9% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 44% CPC 41% NDP 9% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 44% CPC 41% NDP 9% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 44% CPC 40% NDP 9% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Niagara South

LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Niagara South



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 32.7% 33.0% 44% ± 8% CPC 33.3% 33.4% 40% ± 8% NDP 25.5% 22.8% 9% ± 4% PPC 1.4% 8.9% 3% ± 3% GPC 5.3% 1.9% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.