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Manitoba

Welcome to 338Canada Manitoba!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as an occasional panelist for CPAC, CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

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338Canada Projection | Manitoba


Latest update: June 18, 2025

Popular vote projection 53% ± 4%▲ NDP 37% ± 4%▼ PC 9% ± 2% LIB 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 18, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 29 seats for a majority 40▲ [38-42] NDP 16▼ [14-18] PC 1 [1-1] LIB 0 GRN 338Canada Manitoba | June 18, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats >99%▲ NDP <1% PC <1% LIB <1%▼ Tie Odds of winning | June 18, 2025
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome >99%▲ NDP maj. <1% NDP min. <1% PC min. <1% PC maj. Odds of outcome | June 18, 2025

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Manitoba | Popular vote projection

LIB PC NDP GRN LIB 9% ± 2% PC 37% ± 4% NDP 53% ± 4% GRN 1% ± 0% Popular vote projection % 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2023 June 18, 2025 2023-09-16 PC 45% NDP 43% LIB 10% GRN 1% 2023-09-16 2023-09-21 NDP 46% PC 43% LIB 9% GRN 1% 2023-09-21 2023-09-24 NDP 46% PC 43% LIB 9% GRN 1% 2023-09-24 2023-10-02 NDP 47% PC 42% LIB 9% GRN 1% 2023-10-02 2023-10-03 NDP 47% PC 42% LIB 9% GRN 1% 2023-10-03 2023-10-07 NDP 46% PC 42% LIB 11% GRN 1% 2023-10-07 2024-06-19 NDP 48% PC 41% LIB 9% GRN 1% 2024-06-19 2025-06-18 NDP 53% PC 37% LIB 9% GRN 1% 2025-06-18

Manitoba | Seat projection

LIB 1 [1-1] PC 16 [14-18] NDP 40 [38-42] Seat projection 40 35 30 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2023 LIB PC NDP Majority: 29 seats June 18, 2025 2023-09-16 NDP 28 PC 27 LIB 2 2023-09-16 2023-09-21 NDP 29 PC 26 LIB 2 2023-09-21 2023-09-24 NDP 29 PC 26 LIB 2 2023-09-24 2023-10-02 NDP 32 PC 23 LIB 2 2023-10-02 2023-10-03 NDP 31 PC 24 LIB 2 2023-10-03 2023-10-07 NDP 34 PC 22 LIB 1 2023-10-07 2024-06-19 NDP 36 PC 20 LIB 1 2024-06-19 2025-06-18 NDP 40 PC 16 LIB 1 2025-06-18

Manitoba | Odds of winning the most seats

NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2023 LIB PC NDP GPM Tie June 18, 2025 2023-09-16 NDP 50% PC 41% Tie 9% GPM <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-16 2023-09-21 NDP 77% PC 19% Tie 4% GPM <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-21 2023-09-24 NDP 74% PC 20% Tie 6% GPM <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-24 2023-10-02 NDP 86% PC 9% Tie 4% GPM <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-02 2023-10-03 NDP 80% PC 15% Tie 4% GPM <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-10-07 NDP >99% Tie <1% GPM <1% PC <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-07 2024-06-19 NDP 99% Tie 1% PC <1% GPM <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-19 2025-06-18 NDP >99% Tie <1% GPM <1% PC <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-18

Manitoba | Odds of election outcome

NDP majority >99% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2023 NDP majority