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Manitoba

Welcome to 338Canada Manitoba!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as a occasional panelist for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

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338Canada Projection | Manitoba


Latest update: June 19, 2024

Popular vote projection 48% ± 4%▲ NDP 41% ± 4%▼ PC 9% ± 2%▼ LIB 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 19, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 29 seats for a majority 36▲ [32-40] NDP 20▼ [16-24] PC 1 [1-1] LIB 0 GRN 338Canada Manitoba | June 19, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 99%▼ NDP 1%▲ Tie <1% PC <1% LIB Odds of winning | June 19, 2024
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome 99%▼ NDP maj. 1%▲ Tie <1% PC maj. <1% NDP min. Odds of outcome | June 19, 2024

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Manitoba | Popular vote projection

LIB PC NDP GRN LIB 9% ± 2% PC 41% ± 4% NDP 48% ± 4% GRN 1% ± 0% Popular vote projection % 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2023 June 19, 2024 2023-09-16 PC 45% NDP 43% LIB 10% GRN 1% 2023-09-16 2023-09-21 NDP 46% PC 43% LIB 9% GRN 1% 2023-09-21 2023-09-24 NDP 46% PC 43% LIB 9% GRN 1% 2023-09-24 2023-10-02 NDP 47% PC 42% LIB 9% GRN 1% 2023-10-02 2023-10-03 NDP 47% PC 42% LIB 9% GRN 1% 2023-10-03 2023-10-07 NDP 46% PC 42% LIB 11% GRN 1% 2023-10-07 2024-06-19 NDP 48% PC 41% LIB 9% GRN 1% 2024-06-19

Manitoba | Seat projection

LIB 1 [1-1] PC 20 [16-24] NDP 36 [32-40] Seat projection 40 35 30 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2023 LIB PC NDP Majority: 29 seats June 19, 2024 2023-09-16 NDP 28 PC 27 LIB 2 2023-09-16 2023-09-21 NDP 29 PC 26 LIB 2 2023-09-21 2023-09-24 NDP 29 PC 26 LIB 2 2023-09-24 2023-10-02 NDP 32 PC 23 LIB 2 2023-10-02 2023-10-03 NDP 31 PC 24 LIB 2 2023-10-03 2023-10-07 NDP 34 PC 22 LIB 1 2023-10-07 2024-06-19 NDP 36 PC 20 LIB 1 2024-06-19

Manitoba | Odds of winning the most seats

PC <1% NDP 99% Tie 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2023 LIB PC NDP GPM Tie June 19, 2024 2023-09-16 NDP 50% PC 41% Tie 9% GPM <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-16 2023-09-21 NDP 77% PC 19% Tie 4% GPM <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-21 2023-09-24 NDP 74% PC 20% Tie 6% GPM <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-24 2023-10-02 NDP 86% PC 9% Tie 4% GPM <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-02 2023-10-03 NDP 80% PC 15% Tie 4% GPM <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-10-07 NDP >99% Tie <1% GPM <1% PC <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-07 2024-06-19 NDP 99% Tie 1% PC <1% GPM <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-19

Manitoba | Odds of election outcome

PC majority <1% PC minority <1% NDP majority 99% NDP minority <1% Tie 1% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2023 PC majority PC minority NDP majority NDP minority Tie