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Manitoba

Welcome to 338Canada Manitoba!


338Canada is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data.

This website is the creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L’actualité, as well as a regular contributor to Politico Canada and The Walrus.

He also appears as a panelist on CPAC, CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He co-hosts the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

Subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter to stay updated — and enjoy the website!



338Canada Projection | Manitoba


Latest update: September 13, 2025

Popular vote projection 51% ± 4%▼ NDP 39% ± 4%▲ PC 9% ± 2% LIB 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 13, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 29 seats for a majority 39▼ [35-41] NDP 17▲ [15-21] PC 1 [1-1] LIB 0 GRN 338Canada Manitoba | September 13, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats >99% NDP <1% PC <1% LIB <1% Tie Odds of winning | September 13, 2025
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome >99% NDP maj. <1% NDP min. <1% PC min. <1% PC maj. Odds of outcome | September 13, 2025

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Manitoba | Popular vote projection

LIB PC NDP GRN LIB 9% ± 2% PC 39% ± 4% NDP 51% ± 4% GRN 1% ± 0% Popular vote projection % 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2023 September 13, 2025 2023-09-16 PC 45% NDP 43% LIB 10% GRN 1% 2023-09-16 2023-09-21 NDP 46% PC 43% LIB 9% GRN 1% 2023-09-21 2023-09-24 NDP 46% PC 43% LIB 9% GRN 1% 2023-09-24 2023-10-02 NDP 47% PC 42% LIB 9% GRN 1% 2023-10-02 2023-10-03 NDP 47% PC 42% LIB 9% GRN 1% 2023-10-03 2023-10-07 NDP 46% PC 42% LIB 11% GRN 1% 2023-10-07 2024-06-19 NDP 48% PC 41% LIB 9% GRN 1% 2024-06-19 2025-06-18 NDP 53% PC 37% LIB 9% GRN 1% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP 51% PC 39% LIB 9% GRN 1% 2025-09-13

Manitoba | Seat projection

LIB 1 [1-1] PC 17 [15-21] NDP 39 [35-41] Seat projection 40 35 30 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2023 LIB PC NDP Majority: 29 seats September 13, 2025 2023-09-16 NDP 28 PC 27 LIB 2 2023-09-16 2023-09-21 NDP 29 PC 26 LIB 2 2023-09-21 2023-09-24 NDP 29 PC 26 LIB 2 2023-09-24 2023-10-02 NDP 32 PC 23 LIB 2 2023-10-02 2023-10-03 NDP 31 PC 24 LIB 2 2023-10-03 2023-10-07 NDP 34 PC 22 LIB 1 2023-10-07 2024-06-19 NDP 36 PC 20 LIB 1 2024-06-19 2025-06-18 NDP 40 PC 16 LIB 1 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP 39 PC 17 LIB 1 2025-09-13

Manitoba | Odds of winning the most seats

NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2023 LIB PC NDP GPM Tie September 13, 2025 2023-09-16 NDP 50% PC 41% Tie 9% GPM <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-16 2023-09-21 NDP 77% PC 19% Tie 4% GPM <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-21 2023-09-24 NDP 74% PC 20% Tie 6% GPM <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-24 2023-10-02 NDP 86% PC 9% Tie 4% GPM <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-02 2023-10-03 NDP 80% PC 15% Tie 4% GPM <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-10-07 NDP >99% Tie <1% GPM <1% PC <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-07 2024-06-19 NDP 99% Tie 1% PC <1% GPM <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-19 2025-06-18 NDP >99% Tie <1% GPM <1% PC <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP >99% Tie <1% GPM <1% PC <1% LIB <1% 2025-09-13

Manitoba | Odds of election outcome

NDP majority >99% NDP minority <1% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2023 NDP majority NDP minority