338Canada | Spadina–Fort York (Ontario federal district)




35101 - Spadina–Fort York

Province: Ontario
Population (2016): 115,505 residents
Population density: 9263 pop./km² (rank: 6 of 338)
Median household income: $76 270 (rank: 114 of 338)
Member of Parliament: Adam Vaughan (LPC)



Latest projection (July 25, 2021)

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Federal vote projection | Spadina–Fort York

Last update: July 25, 2021








Odds of winning | Spadina–Fort York

Last update: July 25, 2021







Electoral history of Spadina–Fort York



(If you cannot see the graph above, turn your phone by 90°.)
(Results of 2011 election have been transposed on the new electoral map. Thanks to Kyle Hutton for his precious help.)




Map of Spadina–Fort York




(Credits: Elections Canada)




Projections vs results: How did the projections do in 2019? | Spadina–Fort York



On the graph above, colored bar represent the final 338Canada projections for the 2019 federal election. The triangle markers indicates the results in this electoral districts. Only parties that won at least 8% of the vote (or were projected above 8%) are listed.


Spadina–Fort York


Final 2019 Projection 2019 Result The Record
Winner Correct winner
45.3% ± 9.3% 55.8% Outside confidence interval
31.1% ± 8.8% 20.1% Outside confidence interval
16.1% ± 5.7% 17.6% Within confidence interval


*Only parties that won at least 8% of the popular vote in this electoral district (or were projected above 8%) are indicated.









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