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St. Catharines



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC likely

Candidates | St. Catharines


Liberal Chris Bittle*
Conservative Bas Sluijmers
NDP Karen Orlandi
PPC Dennis Wilson
Centrist Taha Alexander Haj-Ahmad
Independent Christopher Reilly

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



St. Catharines 53% ± 8%▲ LPC 35% ± 8%▲ CPC 8% ± 4% NDP LPC 2021 37.9% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% St. Catharines >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | St. Catharines

LPC 53% ± 8% CPC 35% ± 8% NDP 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | St. Catharines 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 39% CPC 39% NDP 15% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 41% CPC 38% NDP 14% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 44% CPC 37% NDP 12% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 44% CPC 36% NDP 12% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 45% CPC 36% NDP 12% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 45% CPC 36% NDP 12% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 45% CPC 36% NDP 12% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 45% CPC 36% NDP 12% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 47% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 47% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 48% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 49% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 49% CPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 50% CPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 49% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 8% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 52% CPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 52% CPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 52% CPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 52% CPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 52% CPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 52% CPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 52% CPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 52% CPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 51% CPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 52% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 52% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 52% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 53% CPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | St. Catharines

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 100% CPC 0% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | St. Catharines



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 40.2% 37.9% 53% ± 8% CPC 31.4% 32.4% 35% ± 8% NDP 20.9% 21.3% 8% ± 4% PPC 1.4% 6.6% 2% ± 3% GPC 6.1% 1.9% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.