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Canada

Mississauga—Lakeshore


MP elect: Charles Sousa (LPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
LPC likely

Candidates | Mississauga—Lakeshore


Liberal Charles Sousa*
Conservative Tom Ellard
NDP Evelyn Butler
Green Mary Kidnew
PPC Fahad Rao
Marxist-Leninist Anna Di Carlo
Independent Carlton Darby

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Mississauga—Lakeshore 52% ± 0%▲ LPC 44% ± 0%▲ CPC LPC 2025 52.2% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Mississauga—Lakeshore 98%▲ LPC 2%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Mississauga—Lakeshore

LPC 52% ± 0% CPC 44% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Mississauga—Lakeshore 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 44% LPC 42% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 43% LPC 43% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 46% CPC 42% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 46% CPC 41% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 47% CPC 41% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 46% CPC 41% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 47% CPC 41% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 47% CPC 41% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 49% CPC 41% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 49% CPC 41% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 49% CPC 40% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 50% CPC 40% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 50% CPC 40% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 50% CPC 40% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 50% CPC 41% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 52% CPC 41% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 52% CPC 41% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 52% CPC 41% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 52% CPC 40% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 51% CPC 40% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 51% CPC 40% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 51% CPC 40% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 51% CPC 40% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 49% CPC 42% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 49% CPC 42% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 49% CPC 41% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 50% CPC 41% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 50% CPC 41% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 50% CPC 41% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 50% CPC 41% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 50% CPC 41% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 50% CPC 41% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 49% CPC 43% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 52% CPC 44% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Mississauga—Lakeshore

LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Mississauga—Lakeshore



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 52% ± 0% 48.6% 45.0% 52.2% CPC 44% ± 0% 37.2% 38.6% 44.2% NDP 2% ± 0% 8.3% 9.8% 1.9% GPC 1% ± 0% 4.5% 2.2% 0.9% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.2% 4.3% 0.5% IND 0% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.