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Canada


Nepean (federal)


MP: Chandra Arya (LPC)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

CPC likely gain
Nepean 42% ± 7% 31% ± 6%▼ 19% ± 5% 6% ± 4% LPC 2021 45.05% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Nepean 97% 3% <1% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Nepean

LPC 31% ± 6% CPC 42% ± 7% NDP 19% ± 5% GPC 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Nepean 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Nepean

LPC 3% CPC 97% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Nepean



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 52.4% 45.9% 45.05% 31% ± 6% CPC 36.1% 33.5% 33.74% 42% ± 7% NDP 8.2% 13.1% 16.41% 19% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 1.0% 2.8% 2% ± 2% GPC 2.3% 6.3% 2.0% 6% ± 4%