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Recent electoral history | Mississauga—Lakeshore


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 52% ± 7% 48.6% 45.0% 52.4% CPC 40% ± 6% 37.2% 38.6% 44.0% NDP 4% ± 3% 8.3% 9.8% 1.9% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.2% 4.3% 0.5%

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338Canada Mississauga—Lakeshore projection

Latest update: March 1, 2026

Mississauga—Lakeshore 45% 58% 52% ± 7% LPC 33% 46% 40% ± 6% CPC 1% 7% 4% ± 3% NDP LPC 2025 52.4% 338Canada vote projection | March 1, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Mississauga—Lakeshore 99%▲ LPC 1%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 1, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Mississauga—Lakeshore

LPC 52% ± 7% CPC 40% ± 6% NDP 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Mississauga—Lakeshore 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC IND March 1, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 50% CPC 41% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 50% CPC 41% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 49% CPC 43% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 52% CPC 44% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 52% CPC 44% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 52% CPC 44% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 52% CPC 44% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 52% CPC 44% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 53% CPC 44% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 53% CPC 43% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 53% CPC 43% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 53% CPC 43% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 53% CPC 43% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 54% CPC 42% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 54% CPC 42% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 54% CPC 42% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 54% CPC 42% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 54% CPC 42% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 54% CPC 41% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 53% CPC 42% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 53% CPC 42% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 52% CPC 43% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 52% CPC 43% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 51% CPC 43% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 50% CPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 50% CPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 50% CPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 50% CPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 50% CPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 51% CPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 51% CPC 43% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 51% CPC 43% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 50% CPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 50% CPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 52% CPC 42% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 51% CPC 42% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 51% CPC 42% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 48% CPC 41% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 48% CPC 41% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC 48% CPC 41% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC 49% CPC 41% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC 50% CPC 41% NDP 5% GPC 2% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 LPC 52% CPC 40% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 LPC 51% CPC 41% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 LPC 52% CPC 40% NDP 4% GPC 2% 2026-03-01

Odds of winning | Mississauga—Lakeshore

LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP March 1, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2026-03-01


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Demographic data | Mississauga—Lakeshore

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 81.7% English 2.3% Polish 1.9% Mandarin 1.5% Arabic 1.4% Urdu 1.0% Spanish 1.0% PortugueseMississauga—LakeshoreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 7.3% No diploma 20.5% High school 4.0% Trade 20.3% College / Cégep 2.7% Some university 28.8% Bachelor's 16.3% PostgraduateMississauga—LakeshoreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 64.9% Not visible minority 35.1% Visible minority 10.1% South Asian 5.1% Chinese 5.0% Black 3.3% Arab 3.2% Filipino 1.9% Latin AmericanMississauga—LakeshoreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 35.2% Catholic 26.1% No Religion 9.0% Muslim 6.8% Christian (n.o.s.) 3.8% Anglican 3.7% Orthodox 3.2% United Church 3.1% HinduMississauga—LakeshoreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 68.8% Owner 31.2% RenterMississauga—LakeshoreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 55.6% Employed 36.7% Not in labour force 7.8% UnemployedMississauga—LakeshoreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 99.2% Non-Indigenous 0.8% Indigenous identity 0.4% First Nations 0.3% Metis 0.1% OthersMississauga—LakeshoreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 83.0% Car / truck / van 9.4% Public transit 4.4% Walking 2.6% Other 0.5% BicycleMississauga—LakeshoreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.