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Canada

Kitchener South—Hespeler


MP elect: Matt Strauss (CPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC

Candidates | Kitchener South—Hespeler


Liberal Valerie Bradford*
Conservative Matt Strauss
NDP Lorne Bruce
Green Ethan Russell
PPC Randy Williams
United Kathleen Dueck

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Kitchener South—Hespeler 48% ± 0%▲ CPC 46% ± 0%▲ LPC 3% ± 0%▼ NDP CPC 2025 48.0% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kitchener South—Hespeler 68%▲ CPC 32%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Kitchener South—Hespeler

LPC 46% ± 0% CPC 48% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Kitchener South—Hespeler 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 43% LPC 35% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 41% LPC 37% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 40% LPC 40% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 40% CPC 40% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 40% CPC 40% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 40% CPC 40% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 41% CPC 39% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 41% CPC 40% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 43% CPC 39% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 43% CPC 40% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 44% CPC 39% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 44% CPC 39% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 45% CPC 39% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 45% CPC 39% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 45% CPC 40% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 46% CPC 41% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 47% CPC 41% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 48% CPC 40% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 48% CPC 40% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 48% CPC 39% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 48% CPC 40% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 48% CPC 40% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 48% CPC 40% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 48% CPC 39% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 48% CPC 39% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 47% CPC 39% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 48% CPC 38% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 48% CPC 38% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 48% CPC 38% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 48% CPC 38% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 48% CPC 38% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 47% CPC 39% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 47% CPC 39% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 47% CPC 39% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 47% CPC 39% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 47% CPC 39% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 48% CPC 38% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 48% CPC 38% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 48% CPC 38% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 48% CPC 38% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 48% CPC 38% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 48% CPC 38% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 45% CPC 40% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 48% LPC 46% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Kitchener South—Hespeler

LPC 32% CPC 68% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Kitchener South—Hespeler



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 48% ± 0% 33.5% 35.5% 48.0% LPC 46% ± 0% 40.2% 37.5% 46.1% NDP 3% ± 0% 13.3% 16.3% 3.0% GPC 2% ± 0% 10.9% 3.4% 2.0% PPC 1% ± 0% 1.9% 6.7% 0.6% IND 0% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.