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Canada

Outremont



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Toss up LPC/NDP
Outremont 32% ± 7%▲ LPC 31% ± 7% NDP 18% ± 5%▼ BQ 11% ± 4% CPC 5% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 44.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Outremont 52%▼ LPC 48%▲ NDP <1% BQ Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Outremont

LPC 32% ± 7% CPC 11% ± 4% NDP 31% ± 7% GPC 5% ± 4% BQ 18% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Outremont 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 41% NDP 26% BQ 16% CPC 10% GPC 5% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 40% NDP 26% BQ 17% CPC 10% GPC 5% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 41% NDP 26% BQ 16% CPC 10% GPC 5% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 42% NDP 26% BQ 15% CPC 10% GPC 5% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 41% NDP 25% BQ 14% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 42% NDP 25% BQ 14% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 38% NDP 27% BQ 15% CPC 14% GPC 5% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 36% NDP 27% BQ 15% CPC 13% GPC 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 37% NDP 27% BQ 15% CPC 13% GPC 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 37% NDP 26% BQ 15% CPC 13% GPC 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 37% NDP 26% BQ 15% CPC 13% GPC 5% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 37% NDP 26% BQ 15% CPC 13% GPC 5% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 39% NDP 26% BQ 15% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 39% NDP 26% BQ 14% CPC 13% GPC 5% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 38% NDP 26% BQ 14% CPC 14% GPC 5% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 39% NDP 26% BQ 14% CPC 13% GPC 5% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 40% NDP 26% BQ 13% CPC 13% GPC 5% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 39% NDP 26% BQ 14% CPC 13% GPC 5% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 38% NDP 26% BQ 14% CPC 13% GPC 6% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 35% NDP 28% BQ 17% CPC 11% GPC 6% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 34% NDP 29% BQ 17% CPC 11% GPC 6% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 33% NDP 30% BQ 17% CPC 11% GPC 5% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 34% NDP 30% BQ 17% CPC 11% GPC 5% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 35% NDP 29% BQ 18% CPC 11% GPC 5% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 35% NDP 29% BQ 18% CPC 11% GPC 5% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 35% NDP 29% BQ 18% CPC 11% GPC 5% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 35% NDP 28% BQ 19% CPC 11% GPC 5% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 34% NDP 28% BQ 18% CPC 11% GPC 5% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 33% NDP 29% BQ 18% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 33% NDP 29% BQ 18% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 31% NDP 31% BQ 19% CPC 11% GPC 5% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 32% NDP 31% BQ 18% CPC 11% GPC 5% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Outremont

LPC 52% NDP 48% BQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% BQ <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% BQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% BQ <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% BQ <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% BQ <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% BQ <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 98% NDP 2% BQ <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 97% NDP 3% BQ <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 97% NDP 3% BQ <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 98% NDP 2% BQ <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 98% NDP 2% BQ <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 98% NDP 2% BQ <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 99% NDP 1% BQ <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 99% NDP 1% BQ <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 98% NDP 2% BQ <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 99% NDP 1% BQ <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 99% NDP 1% BQ <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 99% NDP 1% BQ <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 99% NDP 1% BQ <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 90% NDP 10% BQ <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 79% NDP 21% BQ <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 69% NDP 31% BQ <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 76% NDP 24% BQ <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 84% NDP 16% BQ <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 87% NDP 13% BQ <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 87% NDP 13% BQ <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 90% NDP 10% BQ <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 88% NDP 12% BQ <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 79% NDP 21% BQ <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 74% NDP 26% BQ <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 53% NDP 47% BQ <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 52% NDP 48% BQ <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Outremont



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 46.0% 44.4% 32% ± 7% NDP 20.7% 27.3% 31% ± 7% BQ 14.5% 15.4% 18% ± 5% CPC 6.1% 7.3% 11% ± 4% GPC 11.5% 3.1% 5% ± 4% PPC 0.8% 2.1% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.