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Canada

Outremont


MP elect: Rachel Bendayan (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Outremont


Liberal Rachel Bendayan*
Conservative Ronan Reich
NDP Eve Peclet
Green Jonathan Pedneault
Bloc Quebecois Remi Lebeuf

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Outremont 55% ± 7% LPC 13% ± 4% CPC 12% ± 4% BQ 11% ± 4% NDP 10% ± 4% GPC LPC 2025 55.2% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Outremont >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% BQ Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Outremont

LPC 55% ± 7% CPC 13% ± 4% NDP 11% ± 4% GPC 10% ± 4% BQ 12% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Outremont 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 31% NDP 30% BQ 18% CPC 13% GPC 5% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 32% NDP 30% BQ 18% CPC 14% GPC 5% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 32% NDP 30% BQ 18% CPC 14% GPC 5% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 33% NDP 29% BQ 17% CPC 13% GPC 5% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 37% NDP 28% BQ 16% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 41% NDP 25% BQ 15% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 43% NDP 22% BQ 15% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 47% NDP 21% BQ 14% CPC 11% GPC 4% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 47% NDP 20% BQ 14% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 50% NDP 19% BQ 13% CPC 11% GPC 5% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 52% NDP 18% BQ 12% CPC 11% GPC 5% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 53% NDP 17% BQ 12% CPC 11% GPC 5% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 53% NDP 17% BQ 12% CPC 11% GPC 5% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 53% NDP 17% BQ 12% CPC 11% GPC 5% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 53% NDP 17% BQ 13% CPC 11% GPC 5% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 53% NDP 17% BQ 13% CPC 11% GPC 5% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 56% NDP 14% BQ 12% CPC 10% GPC 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 57% NDP 14% BQ 12% CPC 10% GPC 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 57% NDP 14% BQ 12% CPC 10% GPC 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 58% NDP 13% BQ 12% CPC 10% GPC 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 58% NDP 13% BQ 11% CPC 11% GPC 4% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 59% NDP 13% BQ 11% CPC 11% GPC 4% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 59% NDP 13% BQ 11% CPC 11% GPC 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 61% NDP 13% CPC 11% BQ 10% GPC 3% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 62% NDP 13% CPC 11% BQ 10% GPC 3% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 63% NDP 13% CPC 11% BQ 9% GPC 3% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 63% NDP 12% CPC 11% BQ 9% GPC 3% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 63% NDP 12% CPC 11% BQ 9% GPC 3% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 63% NDP 12% CPC 11% BQ 9% GPC 3% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 63% NDP 12% CPC 11% BQ 9% GPC 3% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 63% NDP 12% CPC 10% BQ 9% GPC 3% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 63% NDP 13% CPC 10% BQ 9% GPC 3% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 65% NDP 13% CPC 10% BQ 9% GPC 3% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 64% NDP 13% CPC 10% BQ 9% GPC 3% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 59% NDP 12% CPC 10% BQ 9% GPC 9% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 59% NDP 12% CPC 10% BQ 9% GPC 9% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 59% NDP 13% CPC 10% GPC 10% BQ 9% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 59% NDP 13% CPC 10% GPC 10% BQ 9% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 57% NDP 13% CPC 10% GPC 10% BQ 10% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 57% NDP 13% CPC 10% GPC 10% BQ 10% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 57% NDP 13% CPC 10% GPC 10% BQ 10% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 57% NDP 13% CPC 10% GPC 10% BQ 10% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 57% NDP 13% CPC 10% GPC 10% BQ 10% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 57% NDP 12% CPC 10% GPC 10% BQ 10% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 57% NDP 12% CPC 10% BQ 10% GPC 10% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 56% NDP 13% CPC 11% GPC 10% BQ 10% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 55% NDP 13% CPC 11% GPC 10% BQ 10% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 55% NDP 13% CPC 11% GPC 10% BQ 10% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 55% NDP 13% CPC 11% GPC 11% BQ 10% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 55% NDP 13% CPC 11% GPC 11% BQ 10% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 55% NDP 14% BQ 12% GPC 10% CPC 9% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 55% CPC 13% BQ 12% NDP 11% GPC 10% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 55% CPC 13% BQ 12% NDP 11% GPC 10% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 55% CPC 13% BQ 12% NDP 11% GPC 10% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 55% CPC 13% BQ 12% NDP 11% GPC 10% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Outremont

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 63% NDP 37% CPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 63% NDP 37% CPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 65% NDP 35% CPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 73% NDP 27% CPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 95% NDP 5% CPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Outremont



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 55% ± 7% 46.0% 44.4% 55.2% CPC 13% ± 4% 6.1% 7.3% 12.5% BQ 12% ± 4% 14.5% 15.4% 12.0% NDP 11% ± 4% 20.7% 27.3% 10.7% GPC 10% ± 4% 11.5% 3.1% 9.6% PPC 0% ± 0% 0.8% 2.1% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.