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Canada

Outremont


MP: Rachel Bendayan (LPC)

Latest projection: July 6, 2025
LPC safe

Recent electoral history | Outremont


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 57% ± 9% 46.0% 44.4% 55.2% NDP 11% ± 5% 20.7% 27.3% 10.7% BQ 11% ± 5% 14.5% 15.4% 12.0% CPC 11% ± 5% 6.1% 7.3% 12.5% GPC 10% ± 6% 11.5% 3.1% 9.6% PPC 0% ± 0% 0.8% 2.1% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Outremont


Outremont 57% ± 9%▲ LPC 11% ± 5% NDP 11% ± 5% BQ 11% ± 5% CPC 10% ± 6% GPC LPC 2025 55.2% 338Canada vote projection | July 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Outremont >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% BQ Odds of winning | July 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Outremont

LPC 57% ± 9% CPC 11% ± 5% NDP 11% ± 5% GPC 10% ± 6% BQ 11% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Outremont 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 31% NDP 30% BQ 18% CPC 13% GPC 5% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 32% NDP 30% BQ 18% CPC 14% GPC 5% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 32% NDP 30% BQ 18% CPC 14% GPC 5% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 33% NDP 29% BQ 17% CPC 13% GPC 5% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 37% NDP 28% BQ 16% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 41% NDP 25% BQ 15% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 43% NDP 22% BQ 15% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 47% NDP 21% BQ 14% CPC 11% GPC 4% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 47% NDP 20% BQ 14% CPC 12% GPC 5% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 50% NDP 19% BQ 13% CPC 11% GPC 5% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 52% NDP 18% BQ 12% CPC 11% GPC 5% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 53% NDP 17% BQ 12% CPC 11% GPC 5% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 53% NDP 17% BQ 12% CPC 11% GPC 5% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 53% NDP 17% BQ 12% CPC 11% GPC 5% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 53% NDP 17% BQ 13% CPC 11% GPC 5% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 53% NDP 17% BQ 13% CPC 11% GPC 5% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 56% NDP 14% BQ 12% CPC 10% GPC 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 57% NDP 14% BQ 12% CPC 10% GPC 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 57% NDP 14% BQ 12% CPC 10% GPC 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 58% NDP 13% BQ 12% CPC 10% GPC 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 58% NDP 13% BQ 11% CPC 11% GPC 4% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 59% NDP 13% BQ 11% CPC 11% GPC 4% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 59% NDP 13% BQ 11% CPC 11% GPC 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 61% NDP 13% CPC 11% BQ 10% GPC 3% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 62% NDP 13% CPC 11% BQ 10% GPC 3% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 63% NDP 13% CPC 11% BQ 9% GPC 3% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 63% NDP 12% CPC 11% BQ 9% GPC 3% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 63% NDP 12% CPC 11% BQ 9% GPC 3% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 63% NDP 12% CPC 11% BQ 9% GPC 3% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 63% NDP 12% CPC 11% BQ 9% GPC 3% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 63% NDP 12% CPC 10% BQ 9% GPC 3% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 63% NDP 13% CPC 10% BQ 9% GPC 3% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 65% NDP 13% CPC 10% BQ 9% GPC 3% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 64% NDP 13% CPC 10% BQ 9% GPC 3% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 59% NDP 12% CPC 10% BQ 9% GPC 9% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 59% NDP 12% CPC 10% BQ 9% GPC 9% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 59% NDP 13% CPC 10% GPC 10% BQ 9% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 59% NDP 13% CPC 10% GPC 10% BQ 9% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 57% NDP 13% CPC 10% GPC 10% BQ 10% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 57% NDP 13% CPC 10% GPC 10% BQ 10% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 57% NDP 13% CPC 10% GPC 10% BQ 10% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 57% NDP 13% CPC 10% GPC 10% BQ 10% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 57% NDP 13% CPC 10% GPC 10% BQ 10% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 57% NDP 12% CPC 10% GPC 10% BQ 10% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 57% NDP 12% CPC 10% BQ 10% GPC 10% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 56% NDP 13% CPC 11% GPC 10% BQ 10% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 55% NDP 13% CPC 11% GPC 10% BQ 10% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 55% NDP 13% CPC 11% GPC 10% BQ 10% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 55% NDP 13% CPC 11% GPC 11% BQ 10% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 55% NDP 13% CPC 11% GPC 11% BQ 10% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 55% NDP 14% BQ 12% GPC 10% CPC 9% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 55% CPC 13% BQ 12% NDP 11% GPC 10% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 55% CPC 13% BQ 12% NDP 11% GPC 10% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 55% CPC 13% BQ 12% NDP 11% GPC 10% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 55% CPC 13% BQ 12% NDP 11% GPC 10% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 55% CPC 13% BQ 12% NDP 11% GPC 10% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 55% CPC 12% BQ 12% NDP 11% GPC 10% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 55% BQ 12% CPC 12% NDP 11% GPC 10% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 55% BQ 12% CPC 12% NDP 11% GPC 10% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 56% BQ 11% CPC 11% NDP 11% GPC 10% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 57% NDP 11% BQ 11% CPC 11% GPC 10% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Outremont

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 63% NDP 37% CPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 63% NDP 37% CPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 65% NDP 35% CPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 73% NDP 27% CPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 95% NDP 5% CPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader