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Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
NDP safe
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie 51% ± 8% NDP 21% ± 6% BQ 15% ± 5% LPC 7% ± 3% CPC 5% ± 4% GPC NDP 2021 48.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie >99% NDP <1% BQ <1% LPC Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie

LPC 15% ± 5% CPC 7% ± 3% NDP 51% ± 8% GPC 5% ± 4% BQ 21% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 NDP 49% BQ 22% LPC 16% CPC 7% GPC 6% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 NDP 49% BQ 23% LPC 16% CPC 7% GPC 5% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 NDP 50% BQ 22% LPC 16% CPC 6% GPC 6% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 NDP 50% BQ 21% LPC 17% CPC 7% GPC 6% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 NDP 50% BQ 20% LPC 17% CPC 7% GPC 6% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 NDP 50% BQ 20% LPC 17% CPC 7% GPC 6% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 51% BQ 20% LPC 15% CPC 8% GPC 6% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 NDP 51% BQ 21% LPC 14% CPC 8% GPC 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 NDP 51% BQ 21% LPC 15% CPC 7% GPC 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 NDP 51% BQ 21% LPC 15% CPC 7% GPC 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 NDP 51% BQ 21% LPC 15% CPC 7% GPC 5% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie

LPC <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie



2019 2021 Proj. NDP 42.5% 48.6% 51% ± 8% LPC 24.2% 23.2% 15% ± 5% BQ 23.8% 21.4% 21% ± 6% CPC 2.3% 4.0% 7% ± 3% GPC 5.9% 2.4% 5% ± 4% PPC 0.5% 0.0% 0% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.