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Canada


Marc-Aurèle-Fortin (federal)


MP: Yves Robilliard (LPC)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

LPC leaning hold
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 37% ± 7% 33% ± 7% 16% ± 5% 12% ± 4% LPC 2021 44.01% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 77%▼ 23%▲ <1% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin

LPC 37% ± 7% CPC 16% ± 5% NDP 12% ± 4% BQ 33% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP BQ

Odds of winning | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin

LPC 77% CPC <1% NDP <1% GPC <1% BQ 23% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Recent electoral history | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 40.9% 44.5% 44.01% 37% ± 7% BQ 21.7% 32.4% 30.86% 33% ± 7% CPC 11.9% 9.7% 11.76% 16% ± 5% NDP 23.5% 8.5% 8.56% 12% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 0.8% 2.9% 2% ± 2% GPC 1.9% 3.8% 0.0% 1% ± 1% IND 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0% ± 0%