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Canada

Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
NDP safe
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie 53% ± 8%▼ NDP 22% ± 6% BQ 12% ± 4% LPC 6% ± 3% CPC 5% ± 4% GPC NDP 2021 48.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie >99% NDP <1% BQ <1% LPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie

LPC 12% ± 4% CPC 6% ± 3% NDP 53% ± 8% GPC 5% ± 4% BQ 22% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 NDP 49% BQ 22% LPC 16% CPC 7% GPC 6% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 NDP 49% BQ 23% LPC 16% CPC 7% GPC 5% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 NDP 50% BQ 22% LPC 16% CPC 6% GPC 6% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 NDP 50% BQ 21% LPC 17% CPC 7% GPC 6% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 NDP 50% BQ 20% LPC 17% CPC 7% GPC 6% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 NDP 50% BQ 20% LPC 17% CPC 7% GPC 6% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 51% BQ 20% LPC 15% CPC 8% GPC 6% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 NDP 51% BQ 21% LPC 14% CPC 8% GPC 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 NDP 51% BQ 21% LPC 15% CPC 7% GPC 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 NDP 51% BQ 21% LPC 15% CPC 7% GPC 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 NDP 51% BQ 21% LPC 15% CPC 7% GPC 5% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 NDP 51% BQ 21% LPC 15% CPC 7% GPC 5% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 NDP 51% BQ 21% LPC 16% CPC 7% GPC 5% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 NDP 51% BQ 21% LPC 16% CPC 7% GPC 5% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 NDP 51% BQ 20% LPC 15% CPC 8% GPC 5% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 NDP 51% BQ 20% LPC 16% CPC 8% GPC 5% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 NDP 51% BQ 19% LPC 16% CPC 7% GPC 5% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 NDP 52% BQ 19% LPC 16% CPC 7% GPC 5% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 NDP 51% BQ 20% LPC 15% CPC 7% GPC 5% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 NDP 52% BQ 21% LPC 14% CPC 6% GPC 5% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 NDP 53% BQ 21% LPC 13% CPC 6% GPC 5% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 NDP 54% BQ 21% LPC 13% CPC 6% GPC 5% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 NDP 54% BQ 21% LPC 13% CPC 6% GPC 5% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 NDP 53% BQ 22% LPC 14% CPC 6% GPC 5% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 NDP 52% BQ 22% LPC 14% CPC 6% GPC 5% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 NDP 52% BQ 22% LPC 14% CPC 6% GPC 5% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 NDP 51% BQ 23% LPC 14% CPC 6% GPC 5% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 NDP 51% BQ 23% LPC 14% CPC 6% GPC 5% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 NDP 52% BQ 23% LPC 13% CPC 6% GPC 5% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 NDP 52% BQ 22% LPC 13% CPC 6% GPC 5% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 NDP 54% BQ 22% LPC 12% CPC 6% GPC 5% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 NDP 53% BQ 22% LPC 12% CPC 6% GPC 5% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie

LPC <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 NDP >99% LPC <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie



2019 2021 Proj. NDP 42.5% 48.6% 53% ± 8% LPC 24.2% 23.2% 12% ± 4% BQ 23.8% 21.4% 22% ± 6% CPC 2.3% 4.0% 6% ± 3% GPC 5.9% 2.4% 5% ± 4% PPC 0.5% 0.0% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.