logo
Canada

Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie


MP: Alexandre Boulerice (NDP)

Latest projection: July 6, 2025
NDP likely

Recent electoral history | Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie


2019 2021 2025 Proj. NDP 43% ± 8% 42.5% 48.6% 41.0% LPC 33% ± 7% 24.2% 23.2% 31.6% BQ 16% ± 5% 23.8% 21.4% 18.3% CPC 6% ± 4% 2.3% 4.0% 6.9% GPC 2% ± 2% 5.9% 2.4% 2.3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie


Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie 43% ± 8%▲ NDP 33% ± 7%▲ LPC 16% ± 5%▼ BQ 6% ± 4% CPC NDP 2025 41.0% 338Canada vote projection | July 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie 95% NDP 5% LPC <1% BQ Odds of winning | July 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie

LPC 33% ± 7% CPC 6% ± 4% NDP 43% ± 8% BQ 16% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 NDP 52% BQ 24% LPC 12% CPC 8% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 NDP 52% BQ 23% LPC 12% CPC 8% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 NDP 52% BQ 23% LPC 12% CPC 8% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 NDP 52% BQ 23% LPC 12% CPC 8% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 NDP 49% BQ 22% LPC 16% CPC 7% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 NDP 46% BQ 22% LPC 19% CPC 8% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 NDP 44% BQ 22% LPC 21% CPC 8% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 NDP 44% LPC 23% BQ 21% CPC 7% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 NDP 44% LPC 23% BQ 20% CPC 7% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP 44% LPC 25% BQ 19% CPC 7% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 NDP 43% LPC 26% BQ 19% CPC 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 NDP 43% LPC 26% BQ 18% CPC 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 NDP 43% LPC 26% BQ 18% CPC 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 NDP 43% LPC 26% BQ 18% CPC 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 NDP 43% LPC 26% BQ 19% CPC 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 NDP 42% LPC 26% BQ 19% CPC 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 NDP 42% LPC 27% BQ 18% CPC 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 NDP 42% LPC 28% BQ 18% CPC 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 NDP 41% LPC 28% BQ 18% CPC 7% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 NDP 41% LPC 29% BQ 18% CPC 7% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 NDP 41% LPC 29% BQ 17% CPC 7% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 NDP 41% LPC 29% BQ 17% CPC 7% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 NDP 42% LPC 29% BQ 17% CPC 7% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 NDP 44% LPC 30% BQ 15% CPC 7% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 NDP 45% LPC 30% BQ 14% CPC 7% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 NDP 45% LPC 30% BQ 14% CPC 7% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 NDP 46% LPC 30% BQ 14% CPC 7% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 NDP 45% LPC 30% BQ 14% CPC 7% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 NDP 45% LPC 31% BQ 14% CPC 7% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 NDP 45% LPC 31% BQ 13% CPC 7% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 NDP 46% LPC 31% BQ 14% CPC 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 NDP 46% LPC 30% BQ 14% CPC 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 NDP 45% LPC 30% BQ 13% CPC 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 NDP 46% LPC 30% BQ 13% CPC 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 NDP 46% LPC 30% BQ 13% CPC 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 NDP 47% LPC 29% BQ 13% CPC 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 NDP 47% LPC 29% BQ 13% CPC 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 NDP 47% LPC 29% BQ 13% CPC 6% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 NDP 47% LPC 28% BQ 13% CPC 6% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 NDP 47% LPC 28% BQ 13% CPC 6% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 NDP 47% LPC 28% BQ 13% CPC 6% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 NDP 47% LPC 28% BQ 14% CPC 6% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 NDP 47% LPC 28% BQ 14% CPC 7% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 NDP 46% LPC 28% BQ 14% CPC 7% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 NDP 46% LPC 28% BQ 14% CPC 7% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 NDP 45% LPC 30% BQ 15% CPC 4% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 NDP 46% LPC 29% BQ 15% CPC 4% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 NDP 46% LPC 29% BQ 15% CPC 4% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 NDP 46% LPC 28% BQ 15% CPC 4% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 NDP 46% LPC 28% BQ 15% CPC 5% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 NDP 44% LPC 29% BQ 17% CPC 4% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 NDP 36% LPC 28% BQ 17% CPC 17% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 NDP 36% LPC 28% BQ 17% CPC 17% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 NDP 36% LPC 28% CPC 17% BQ 17% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 NDP 41% LPC 32% BQ 18% CPC 7% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 NDP 41% LPC 32% BQ 18% CPC 7% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 NDP 41% LPC 31% BQ 18% CPC 7% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 NDP 42% LPC 31% BQ 18% CPC 7% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 NDP 42% LPC 31% BQ 18% CPC 6% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 NDP 42% LPC 32% BQ 17% CPC 6% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 NDP 43% LPC 33% BQ 16% CPC 6% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie

LPC 5% CPC <1% NDP 95% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 NDP >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 NDP 99% LPC 1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 NDP 99% LPC 1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 NDP 99% LPC 1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 NDP 98% LPC 2% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 NDP 97% LPC 3% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 NDP 98% LPC 2% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 NDP 99% LPC 1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 NDP 99% LPC 1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 NDP 99% LPC 1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 NDP 99% LPC 1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 NDP 99% LPC 1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 NDP 99% LPC 1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 NDP 99% LPC 1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 NDP 99% LPC 1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 NDP 99% LPC 1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 NDP 99% LPC 1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 NDP 99% LPC 1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 NDP 99% LPC 1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 NDP >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 NDP 99% LPC 1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 NDP 99% LPC 1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 NDP 98% LPC 2% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 NDP 98% LPC 2% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 NDP 94% LPC 6% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 NDP 94% LPC 6% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 NDP 96% LPC 4% CPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 NDP 97% LPC 3% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 NDP 95% LPC 5% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 NDP 95% LPC 5% CPC <1% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader