logo
logo
Canada

Thunder Bay—Superior North



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Toss up CPC/NDP
Thunder Bay—Superior North 34% ± 7% CPC 30% ± 7% NDP 28% ± 7% LPC 4% ± 3% GPC 3% ± 4% PPC LPC 2021 40.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Thunder Bay—Superior North 70%▼ CPC 23%▲ NDP 7%▼ LPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Thunder Bay—Superior North

LPC 28% ± 7% CPC 34% ± 7% NDP 30% ± 7% GPC 4% ± 3% PPC 3% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Thunder Bay—Superior North 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 33% LPC 31% NDP 30% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 33% LPC 31% NDP 30% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 32% CPC 32% NDP 29% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 32% CPC 32% NDP 30% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 32% CPC 32% NDP 29% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 32% CPC 31% NDP 30% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 31% LPC 31% NDP 31% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 32% LPC 31% NDP 29% GPC 3% PPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 32% LPC 31% NDP 29% GPC 3% PPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 32% LPC 31% NDP 29% GPC 3% PPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 32% LPC 31% NDP 29% GPC 3% PPC 3% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 32% LPC 31% NDP 29% GPC 3% PPC 3% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 32% LPC 30% NDP 30% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 32% LPC 31% NDP 30% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 31% CPC 31% NDP 29% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 32% CPC 31% NDP 29% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 33% CPC 32% NDP 27% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 32% LPC 32% NDP 28% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 33% LPC 31% NDP 27% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 34% LPC 31% NDP 26% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 35% LPC 30% NDP 27% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 35% LPC 29% NDP 27% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 34% LPC 30% NDP 28% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 34% LPC 30% NDP 28% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 33% LPC 30% NDP 28% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 33% LPC 30% NDP 28% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 33% LPC 31% NDP 28% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 32% LPC 31% NDP 28% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 34% LPC 30% NDP 28% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 34% LPC 29% NDP 28% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 34% NDP 30% LPC 28% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 34% NDP 30% LPC 28% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Thunder Bay—Superior North

LPC 7% CPC 70% NDP 23% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 50% LPC 30% NDP 20% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 50% LPC 32% NDP 18% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 44% CPC 42% NDP 14% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 41% LPC 40% NDP 19% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 44% CPC 39% NDP 16% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 46% CPC 33% NDP 21% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 36% LPC 35% NDP 29% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 17% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 44% LPC 40% NDP 16% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 49% LPC 37% NDP 14% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 51% LPC 35% NDP 14% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 51% LPC 35% NDP 14% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 44% LPC 30% NDP 25% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 45% LPC 31% NDP 24% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 41% CPC 39% NDP 20% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 54% CPC 31% NDP 15% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 53% CPC 40% NDP 7% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 46% LPC 46% NDP 9% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 62% LPC 34% NDP 4% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 71% LPC 27% NDP 3% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 76% LPC 20% NDP 4% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 81% LPC 13% NDP 6% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 74% LPC 19% NDP 7% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 68% LPC 23% NDP 8% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 67% LPC 23% NDP 10% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 64% LPC 24% NDP 12% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 63% LPC 29% NDP 8% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 53% LPC 37% NDP 10% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 71% LPC 18% NDP 10% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 77% LPC 13% NDP 11% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 71% NDP 21% LPC 8% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 70% NDP 23% LPC 7% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Thunder Bay—Superior North



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 42.6% 40.4% 28% ± 7% NDP 22.0% 27.7% 30% ± 7% CPC 25.1% 24.0% 34% ± 7% PPC 1.7% 5.9% 3% ± 4% GPC 8.3% 1.8% 4% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.