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Canada

Thunder Bay—Superior North


MP elect: Patty Hajdu (LPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Thunder Bay—Superior North


Liberal Patty Hajdu*
Conservative Bob Herman
NDP Joy Wakefield
Green John Malcolm Northey
PPC Amos Bradley

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Thunder Bay—Superior North 55% ± 0%▲ LPC 36% ± 0%▲ CPC 7% ± 0%▼ NDP LPC 2025 55.4% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Thunder Bay—Superior North >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Thunder Bay—Superior North

LPC 55% ± 0% CPC 36% ± 0% NDP 7% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Thunder Bay—Superior North 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 43% CPC 31% NDP 20% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 45% CPC 30% NDP 18% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 48% CPC 29% NDP 17% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 48% CPC 28% NDP 17% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 49% CPC 28% NDP 17% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 48% CPC 28% NDP 17% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 49% CPC 28% NDP 17% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 49% CPC 28% NDP 17% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 52% CPC 28% NDP 14% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 52% CPC 28% NDP 14% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 52% CPC 28% NDP 14% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 53% CPC 28% NDP 13% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 53% CPC 28% NDP 13% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 54% CPC 28% NDP 12% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 54% CPC 29% NDP 12% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 55% CPC 29% NDP 11% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 56% CPC 29% NDP 11% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 56% CPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 56% CPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 57% CPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 57% CPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 56% CPC 29% NDP 11% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 56% CPC 29% NDP 11% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 57% CPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 57% CPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 57% CPC 28% NDP 12% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 57% CPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 57% CPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 57% CPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 58% CPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 57% CPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 57% CPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 56% CPC 29% NDP 11% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 57% CPC 29% NDP 11% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 57% CPC 29% NDP 11% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 57% CPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 58% CPC 27% NDP 11% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 58% CPC 27% NDP 11% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 57% CPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 57% CPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 57% CPC 28% NDP 12% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 57% CPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 54% CPC 30% NDP 12% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 55% CPC 36% NDP 7% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Thunder Bay—Superior North

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 97% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 99% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Thunder Bay—Superior North



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 55% ± 0% 42.6% 40.4% 55.4% CPC 36% ± 0% 25.1% 24.0% 35.6% NDP 7% ± 0% 22.0% 27.7% 7.0% PPC 1% ± 0% 1.7% 5.9% 1.0% GPC 1% ± 0% 8.3% 1.8% 0.9%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.