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Canada

Calgary Shepard



Latest projection: April 17, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Calgary Shepard


Liberal Gul Khan
Conservative Tom Kmiec*
NDP Tory Tomblin
Green Robert Frasch
PPC Donald Legere

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Calgary Shepard 57% ± 8% CPC 33% ± 8% LPC 6% ± 4% NDP CPC 2021 61.2% 338Canada vote projection | April 17, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Calgary Shepard >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 17, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Calgary Shepard

LPC 33% ± 8% CPC 57% ± 8% NDP 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Calgary Shepard 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 62% LPC 17% NDP 14% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 59% LPC 22% NDP 13% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 56% LPC 28% NDP 10% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 55% LPC 29% NDP 10% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 55% LPC 29% NDP 10% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 55% LPC 29% NDP 10% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 55% LPC 29% NDP 10% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 55% LPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 56% LPC 29% NDP 9% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 56% LPC 29% NDP 9% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 56% LPC 29% NDP 9% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 57% LPC 29% NDP 9% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 57% LPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 57% LPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 58% LPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 58% LPC 30% NDP 8% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 58% LPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 58% LPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 58% LPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 58% LPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 58% LPC 31% NDP 7% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 59% LPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 59% LPC 31% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 58% LPC 31% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 58% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 58% LPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 58% LPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 57% LPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 57% LPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 57% LPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 57% LPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 57% LPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Calgary Shepard

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Calgary Shepard



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 76.4% 61.2% 57% ± 8% LPC 11.1% 13.9% 33% ± 8% NDP 8.0% 16.0% 6% ± 4% GPC 2.7% 1.7% 2% ± 2% PPC 1.9% 5.7% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.