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Canada

Thunder Bay—Rainy River


MP elect: Marcus Powlowski (LPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
LPC leaning

Candidates | Thunder Bay—Rainy River


Liberal Marcus Powlowski*
Conservative Brendan Hyatt
NDP Yuk-Sem Won
Green Eric Arner
PPC Sabrina Ree

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Thunder Bay—Rainy River 48% ± 0%▲ LPC 44% ± 0%▲ CPC 7% ± 0%▼ NDP LPC 2025 47.6% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Thunder Bay—Rainy River 77%▼ LPC 23%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Thunder Bay—Rainy River

LPC 48% ± 0% CPC 44% ± 0% NDP 7% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Thunder Bay—Rainy River 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 38% LPC 36% NDP 18% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 37% CPC 37% NDP 17% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 40% CPC 36% NDP 16% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 41% CPC 36% NDP 16% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 41% CPC 36% NDP 16% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 41% CPC 36% NDP 16% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 41% CPC 35% NDP 16% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 41% CPC 36% NDP 16% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 44% CPC 35% NDP 13% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 44% CPC 36% NDP 13% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 45% CPC 35% NDP 13% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 46% CPC 35% NDP 12% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 46% CPC 35% NDP 12% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 46% CPC 36% NDP 12% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 46% CPC 36% NDP 11% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 47% CPC 37% NDP 11% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 48% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 49% CPC 36% NDP 11% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 49% CPC 36% NDP 11% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 49% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 49% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 48% CPC 36% NDP 11% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 49% CPC 36% NDP 11% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 49% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 49% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 49% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 50% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 50% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 50% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 50% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 50% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 49% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 49% CPC 36% NDP 11% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 49% CPC 36% NDP 11% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 49% CPC 36% NDP 11% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 49% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 50% CPC 34% NDP 11% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 50% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 50% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 49% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 49% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 49% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 47% CPC 36% NDP 13% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 48% CPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Thunder Bay—Rainy River

LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Thunder Bay—Rainy River



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 48% ± 0% 35.3% 34.3% 47.6% CPC 44% ± 0% 29.3% 29.3% 43.8% NDP 7% ± 0% 29.1% 28.5% 6.8% PPC 1% ± 0% 1.8% 6.6% 1.0% GPC 1% ± 0% 4.5% 1.4% 0.8%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.