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Canada


Thunder Bay—Rainy River


Latest projection: May 12, 2024
CPC likely
Note: The terms "hold" and "gain" are used to compare current projections with transposed 2021 results onto the new electoral map.
Thunder Bay—Rainy River 39% ± 8%▼ CPC 27% ± 7% NDP 25% ± 7% LPC 6% ± 4% GPC 3% ± 4% PPC LPC 2021 34.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Thunder Bay—Rainy River 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% LPC Odds of winning | May 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Thunder Bay—Rainy River

LPC 25% ± 7% CPC 39% ± 8% NDP 27% ± 7% GPC 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Thunder Bay—Rainy River 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC May 12, 2024

Odds of winning | Thunder Bay—Rainy River

LPC <1% CPC 99% NDP 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP May 12, 2024

Recent electoral history | Thunder Bay—Rainy River



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 35.3% 34.3% 25% ± 7% CPC 29.3% 29.3% 39% ± 8% NDP 29.1% 28.5% 27% ± 7% PPC 1.8% 6.6% 3% ± 4% GPC 4.5% 1.4% 6% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.