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Canada

Thunder Bay—Rainy River


Latest projection: September 8, 2024
CPC likely
Thunder Bay—Rainy River 39% ± 8% CPC 26% ± 7% LPC 25% ± 7% NDP 5% ± 4% GPC 4% ± 5% PPC LPC 2021 34.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 8, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Thunder Bay—Rainy River 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | September 8, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Thunder Bay—Rainy River

LPC 26% ± 7% CPC 39% ± 8% NDP 25% ± 7% GPC 5% ± 4% PPC 4% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Thunder Bay—Rainy River 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC September 8, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 39% NDP 27% LPC 25% GPC 6% PPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 39% NDP 27% LPC 25% GPC 6% PPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 39% NDP 26% LPC 26% GPC 6% PPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 39% NDP 27% LPC 26% GPC 6% PPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 39% NDP 26% LPC 26% GPC 6% PPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 38% NDP 27% LPC 26% GPC 6% PPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 38% NDP 28% LPC 25% GPC 6% PPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 39% NDP 27% LPC 25% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 39% NDP 27% LPC 26% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 39% NDP 26% LPC 25% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 40% NDP 26% LPC 25% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 40% NDP 26% LPC 25% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 39% NDP 27% LPC 25% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 39% NDP 27% LPC 25% GPC 5% PPC 4% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 38% NDP 27% LPC 25% GPC 5% PPC 4% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 38% NDP 26% LPC 26% GPC 5% PPC 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 39% LPC 26% NDP 25% GPC 5% PPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 39% LPC 26% NDP 25% GPC 5% PPC 4% 2024-09-08

Odds of winning | Thunder Bay—Rainy River

LPC 1% CPC 99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP September 8, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 98% NDP 1% LPC 1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC 1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 98% NDP 1% LPC 1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 97% NDP 2% LPC 1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 96% NDP 3% LPC 1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 98% NDP 1% LPC 0% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC 1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 97% NDP 2% LPC 1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-08

Recent electoral history | Thunder Bay—Rainy River



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 35.3% 34.3% 26% ± 7% CPC 29.3% 29.3% 39% ± 8% NDP 29.1% 28.5% 25% ± 7% PPC 1.8% 6.6% 4% ± 5% GPC 4.5% 1.4% 5% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.