logo
Canada

Thunder Bay—Rainy River



Latest projection: January 19, 2025
CPC likely
Thunder Bay—Rainy River 42% ± 8%▼ CPC 27% ± 7%▼ NDP 22% ± 7%▲ LPC 5% ± 4% GPC 3% ± 4% PPC LPC 2021 34.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | January 19, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Thunder Bay—Rainy River >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC Odds of winning | January 19, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Recent electoral history | Thunder Bay—Rainy River



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 29.3% 29.3% 42% ± 8% NDP 29.1% 28.5% 27% ± 7% LPC 35.3% 34.3% 22% ± 7% GPC 4.5% 1.4% 5% ± 4% PPC 1.8% 6.6% 3% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.