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Canada

Thunder Bay—Rainy River



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
CPC likely
Thunder Bay—Rainy River 41% ± 8% CPC 28% ± 7%▲ NDP 22% ± 6% LPC 5% ± 4% GPC 3% ± 4% PPC LPC 2021 34.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Thunder Bay—Rainy River 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% LPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Thunder Bay—Rainy River

LPC 22% ± 6% CPC 41% ± 8% NDP 28% ± 7% GPC 5% ± 4% PPC 3% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Thunder Bay—Rainy River 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 39% NDP 27% LPC 25% GPC 6% PPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 39% NDP 27% LPC 25% GPC 6% PPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 39% NDP 26% LPC 26% GPC 6% PPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 39% NDP 27% LPC 26% GPC 6% PPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 39% NDP 26% LPC 26% GPC 6% PPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 38% NDP 27% LPC 26% GPC 6% PPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 38% NDP 28% LPC 25% GPC 6% PPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 39% NDP 27% LPC 25% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 39% NDP 27% LPC 26% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 39% NDP 26% LPC 25% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 40% NDP 26% LPC 25% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 40% NDP 26% LPC 25% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 39% NDP 27% LPC 25% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 39% NDP 27% LPC 25% GPC 5% PPC 4% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 38% NDP 27% LPC 25% GPC 5% PPC 4% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 38% NDP 26% LPC 26% GPC 5% PPC 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 39% LPC 26% NDP 25% GPC 5% PPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 39% LPC 26% NDP 25% GPC 5% PPC 4% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 41% LPC 25% NDP 24% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 42% LPC 25% NDP 24% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 42% NDP 24% LPC 24% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 42% NDP 25% LPC 23% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 41% NDP 25% LPC 24% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 41% NDP 25% LPC 24% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 40% NDP 25% LPC 24% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 40% NDP 26% LPC 24% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 40% NDP 25% LPC 25% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 39% NDP 26% LPC 25% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 41% NDP 26% LPC 24% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 42% NDP 26% LPC 23% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 41% NDP 27% LPC 22% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 41% NDP 28% LPC 22% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Thunder Bay—Rainy River

LPC <1% CPC 99% NDP 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 98% NDP 1% LPC 1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC 1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 98% NDP 1% LPC 1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 97% NDP 2% LPC 1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 96% NDP 3% LPC 1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 98% NDP 1% LPC 0% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC 1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 97% NDP 2% LPC 1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Thunder Bay—Rainy River



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 35.3% 34.3% 22% ± 6% CPC 29.3% 29.3% 41% ± 8% NDP 29.1% 28.5% 28% ± 7% PPC 1.8% 6.6% 3% ± 4% GPC 4.5% 1.4% 5% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.