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Canada

Thunder Bay—Rainy River


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
CPC likely
Thunder Bay—Rainy River 40% ± 8%▲ CPC 26% ± 7% NDP 25% ± 7% LPC 5% ± 4% GPC 3% ± 4% PPC LPC 2021 34.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Thunder Bay—Rainy River 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% LPC Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Thunder Bay—Rainy River

LPC 25% ± 7% CPC 40% ± 8% NDP 26% ± 7% GPC 5% ± 4% PPC 3% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Thunder Bay—Rainy River 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 39% NDP 27% LPC 25% GPC 6% PPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 39% NDP 27% LPC 25% GPC 6% PPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 39% NDP 26% LPC 26% GPC 6% PPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 39% NDP 27% LPC 26% GPC 6% PPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 39% NDP 26% LPC 26% GPC 6% PPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 38% NDP 27% LPC 26% GPC 6% PPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 38% NDP 28% LPC 25% GPC 6% PPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 39% NDP 27% LPC 25% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 39% NDP 27% LPC 26% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 39% NDP 26% LPC 25% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 40% NDP 26% LPC 25% GPC 5% PPC 3% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Thunder Bay—Rainy River

LPC <1% CPC 99% NDP 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 98% NDP 1% LPC 1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 98% NDP 2% LPC 1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 98% NDP 1% LPC 1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 97% NDP 2% LPC 1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 96% NDP 3% LPC 1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 98% NDP 1% LPC 0% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Thunder Bay—Rainy River



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 35.3% 34.3% 25% ± 7% CPC 29.3% 29.3% 40% ± 8% NDP 29.1% 28.5% 26% ± 7% PPC 1.8% 6.6% 3% ± 4% GPC 4.5% 1.4% 5% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.