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Canada

Pickering—Brooklin


MP elect: Juanita Nathan (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC likely

Candidates | Pickering—Brooklin


Liberal Juanita Nathan
Conservative Alicia Vianga
NDP Jamie David Nye
Green Andrea Wood
PPC Lisa Robinson
Centrist Zainab Rana

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Pickering—Brooklin 54% ± 6% LPC 41% ± 6% CPC 3% ± 2% NDP LPC 2025 54.2% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Pickering—Brooklin 99%▼ LPC 1%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Pickering—Brooklin

LPC 54% ± 6% CPC 41% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Pickering—Brooklin 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 48% LPC 32% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 47% LPC 34% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 47% LPC 34% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 44% LPC 37% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 42% LPC 41% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 45% CPC 41% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 47% CPC 40% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 48% CPC 39% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 47% CPC 40% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 50% CPC 38% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 52% CPC 37% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 53% CPC 36% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 53% CPC 36% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 53% CPC 36% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 53% CPC 36% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 53% CPC 36% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 55% CPC 36% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 55% CPC 36% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 55% CPC 36% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 56% CPC 35% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 56% CPC 35% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 56% CPC 35% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 56% CPC 36% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 57% CPC 36% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 58% CPC 35% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 57% CPC 36% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 57% CPC 36% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 57% CPC 36% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 57% CPC 36% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 56% CPC 37% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 57% CPC 37% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 57% CPC 36% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 56% CPC 35% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 56% CPC 35% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 57% CPC 35% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 57% CPC 35% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 57% CPC 35% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 57% CPC 35% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 57% CPC 35% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 56% CPC 35% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 56% CPC 36% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 54% CPC 37% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 54% CPC 37% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 54% CPC 37% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 55% CPC 36% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 55% CPC 36% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 55% CPC 37% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 55% CPC 37% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 55% CPC 37% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 55% CPC 37% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 53% CPC 39% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 54% CPC 41% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 54% CPC 41% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 54% CPC 41% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 54% CPC 41% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Pickering—Brooklin

LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Pickering—Brooklin



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 54% ± 6% 51.5% 48.2% 54.2% CPC 41% ± 6% 29.0% 34.3% 41.2% NDP 3% ± 2% 12.5% 13.5% 2.6% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.9% 3.8% 0.9% GPC 1% ± 1% 5.1% 0.2% 0.8% IND 0% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.