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Canada

Pickering—Brooklin



Latest projection: November 17, 2024
CPC leaning
Pickering—Brooklin 44% ± 7%▼ CPC 38% ± 7%▲ LPC 14% ± 5% NDP LPC 2021 48.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Pickering—Brooklin 84%▼ CPC 16%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | November 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Pickering—Brooklin

LPC 38% ± 7% CPC 44% ± 7% NDP 14% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Pickering—Brooklin 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 45% LPC 38% NDP 14% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 45% LPC 38% NDP 14% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 44% LPC 39% NDP 14% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 44% LPC 39% NDP 14% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 44% LPC 39% NDP 14% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 43% LPC 39% NDP 15% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 43% LPC 38% NDP 16% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 44% LPC 38% NDP 15% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 43% LPC 38% NDP 15% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 44% LPC 38% NDP 14% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 44% LPC 38% NDP 14% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 44% LPC 38% NDP 14% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 43% LPC 37% NDP 15% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 43% LPC 37% NDP 15% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 43% LPC 38% NDP 15% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 42% LPC 39% NDP 15% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 43% LPC 39% NDP 14% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 43% LPC 39% NDP 14% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 45% LPC 38% NDP 13% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 46% LPC 37% NDP 13% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 46% LPC 36% NDP 14% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 47% LPC 35% NDP 14% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 46% LPC 36% NDP 14% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 45% LPC 36% NDP 14% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 45% LPC 36% NDP 14% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 45% LPC 36% NDP 15% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 45% LPC 37% NDP 14% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 44% LPC 38% NDP 14% 2024-11-17

Odds of winning | Pickering—Brooklin

LPC 16% CPC 84% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2024-11-17

Recent electoral history | Pickering—Brooklin



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 51.5% 48.2% 38% ± 7% CPC 29.0% 34.3% 44% ± 7% NDP 12.5% 13.5% 14% ± 5% PPC 1.9% 3.8% 2% ± 3% GPC 5.1% 0.2% 1% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.