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Recent electoral history | South Surrey—White Rock


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 51% ± 7% 37.4% 38.9% 50.5% CPC 42% ± 7% 41.9% 42.4% 45.7% NDP 3% ± 2% 11.6% 14.8% 2.5% PPC 0% ± 1% 1.5% 3.9% 0.0%

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338Canada South Surrey—White Rock projection

Latest update: March 8, 2026

South Surrey—White Rock 44% 58% 51% ± 7% LPC 36% 49% 42% ± 7% CPC 1% 6% 3% ± 2% NDP 0% 5% 3% ± 2% GPC LPC 2025 50.5% 338Canada vote projection | March 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% South Surrey—White Rock 94%▲ LPC 6%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | South Surrey—White Rock

LPC 51% ± 7% CPC 42% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | South Surrey—White Rock 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC March 8, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 6% GPC 0% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 51% CPC 46% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 51% CPC 46% NDP 2% GPC 1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 51% CPC 45% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 52% CPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 52% CPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 52% CPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 52% CPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 52% CPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 51% CPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 51% CPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 51% CPC 45% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 51% CPC 45% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 51% CPC 45% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 51% CPC 45% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 52% CPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 52% CPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 51% CPC 45% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 48% CPC 48% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 48% CPC 48% NDP 2% GPC 2% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 48% CPC 48% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 46% CPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 3% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 47% CPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 3% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 4% GPC 3% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 4% GPC 3% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC 47% CPC 45% NDP 4% GPC 3% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC 47% CPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 3% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC 49% CPC 45% NDP 3% GPC 3% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 LPC 50% CPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 3% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 LPC 50% CPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 3% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 LPC 51% CPC 43% NDP 3% GPC 3% 2026-03-01 2026-03-08 LPC 51% CPC 42% NDP 3% GPC 3% 2026-03-08

Odds of winning | South Surrey—White Rock

LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP March 8, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2026-03-01 2026-03-08 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2026-03-08


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Demographic data | South Surrey—White Rock

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 80.4% English 10.0% Mandarin 3.3% Punjabi 1.0% Korean 0.9% Cantonese 0.5% Spanish 0.4% RussianSouth Surrey—White RockSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 4.4% No diploma 23.2% High school 6.5% Trade 18.5% College / Cégep 5.4% Some university 26.1% Bachelor's 15.8% PostgraduateSouth Surrey—White RockSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 62.7% Not visible minority 37.3% Visible minority 16.4% Chinese 11.5% South Asian 2.1% Filipino 1.5% Korean 1.2% Black 1.1% MultipleSouth Surrey—White RockSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 48.7% No Religion 11.5% Catholic 10.7% Christian (n.o.s.) 7.5% Sikh 3.6% United Church 3.4% Anglican 2.4% Other Christian 1.9% MuslimSouth Surrey—White RockSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 76.5% Owner 23.5% Renter 0.0% Community housingSouth Surrey—White RockSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 53.3% Employed 42.0% Not in labour force 4.7% UnemployedSouth Surrey—White RockSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 97.9% Non-Indigenous 2.1% Indigenous identity 1.1% Metis 1.0% First NationsSouth Surrey—White RockSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 87.8% Car / truck / van 4.6% Public transit 4.6% Walking 2.6% Other 0.4% BicycleSouth Surrey—White RockSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.