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Canada

South Surrey—White Rock


MP elect: Ernie Klassen (LPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
LPC leaning

Candidates | South Surrey—White Rock


Liberal Ernie Klassen
Conservative Kerry-Lynne Findlay*
NDP Jureun Park
Green Christine Kinnie

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



South Surrey—White Rock 50% ± 0%▲ LPC 46% ± 0%▼ CPC LPC 2025 50.5% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% South Surrey—White Rock 88%▲ LPC 12%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | South Surrey—White Rock

LPC 50% ± 0% CPC 46% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | South Surrey—White Rock 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 47% LPC 39% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 48% LPC 41% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 47% LPC 43% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 47% LPC 43% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 47% LPC 44% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 47% LPC 44% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 46% LPC 44% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 46% LPC 44% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 47% CPC 45% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 47% CPC 45% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 47% CPC 44% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 47% CPC 45% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 48% CPC 44% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 49% CPC 44% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 49% CPC 44% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 50% CPC 43% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 51% CPC 42% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 52% CPC 42% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 51% CPC 43% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 47% CPC 46% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 47% CPC 46% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 47% LPC 46% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 48% LPC 47% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 47% LPC 47% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 48% LPC 47% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 48% LPC 47% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 48% LPC 46% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 48% LPC 46% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 49% LPC 46% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 49% LPC 46% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 49% LPC 46% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 49% LPC 46% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 49% LPC 46% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 50% LPC 45% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 50% LPC 45% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 49% LPC 46% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 49% LPC 46% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 49% LPC 46% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 49% LPC 46% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 49% LPC 46% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 48% LPC 46% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 50% CPC 46% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | South Surrey—White Rock

LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | South Surrey—White Rock



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 50% ± 0% 37.4% 38.9% 50.5% CPC 46% ± 0% 41.9% 42.4% 45.7% NDP 2% ± 0% 11.6% 14.8% 2.5% GPC 1% ± 0% 7.7% 0.0% 1.3% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.5% 3.9% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.