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Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan



Latest projection: April 16, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan


Liberal Tabitha Mukamusoni
Conservative Fraser Tolmie*
NDP Britt Baumann
Green Mike Gardiner
PPC Chey Craik

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan 66% ± 8% CPC 19% ± 6% LPC 10% ± 5% NDP 3% ± 3%▲ PPC CPC 2021 61.0% 338Canada vote projection | April 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan

LPC 19% ± 6% CPC 66% ± 8% NDP 10% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 16, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 61% NDP 15% LPC 8% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 59% NDP 15% LPC 10% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 62% LPC 15% NDP 11% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 61% LPC 15% NDP 11% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 61% LPC 16% NDP 11% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 61% LPC 16% NDP 11% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 61% LPC 16% NDP 11% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 62% LPC 16% NDP 11% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 62% LPC 17% NDP 10% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 62% LPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 62% LPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 62% LPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 61% LPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 61% LPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 61% LPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 61% LPC 18% NDP 11% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 62% LPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 62% LPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 62% LPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 62% LPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 62% LPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 65% LPC 19% NDP 10% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 65% LPC 19% NDP 10% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 65% LPC 19% NDP 10% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 65% LPC 20% NDP 11% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 65% LPC 20% NDP 11% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 65% LPC 20% NDP 11% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 65% LPC 20% NDP 11% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 66% LPC 19% NDP 10% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 66% LPC 19% NDP 10% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 66% LPC 19% NDP 10% 2025-04-16 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 16, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 71.6% 61.0% 66% ± 8% LPC 5.5% 6.0% 19% ± 6% NDP 16.6% 18.9% 10% ± 5% PPC 3.6% 11.3% 3% ± 3% GPC 2.6% 1.0% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.