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Canada

Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan


MP: Fraser Tolmie (CPC)

Latest projection: June 1, 2025
CPC safe

Recent electoral history | Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 72% ± 8% 71.6% 61.0% 71.9% LPC 17% ± 6% 5.5% 6.0% 16.7% NDP 8% ± 4% 16.6% 18.9% 7.5% PPC 3% ± 4% 3.6% 11.3% 3.0% GPC 1% ± 1% 2.6% 1.0% 0.9%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.


Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan 72% ± 8% CPC 17% ± 6% LPC 8% ± 4% NDP 3% ± 4% PPC CPC 2025 71.9% 338Canada vote projection | June 1, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 1, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan

LPC 17% ± 6% CPC 72% ± 8% NDP 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 66% NDP 17% LPC 4% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 65% NDP 18% LPC 4% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 65% NDP 18% LPC 4% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 64% NDP 18% LPC 5% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 63% NDP 18% LPC 5% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 63% NDP 17% LPC 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 64% NDP 15% LPC 6% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 61% NDP 15% LPC 8% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 61% NDP 15% LPC 8% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 59% NDP 15% LPC 10% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 62% LPC 15% NDP 11% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 61% LPC 15% NDP 11% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 61% LPC 16% NDP 11% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 61% LPC 16% NDP 11% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 61% LPC 16% NDP 11% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 62% LPC 16% NDP 11% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 62% LPC 17% NDP 10% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 62% LPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 62% LPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 62% LPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 61% LPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 61% LPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 61% LPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 61% LPC 18% NDP 11% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 62% LPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 62% LPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 62% LPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 62% LPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 62% LPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 65% LPC 19% NDP 10% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 65% LPC 19% NDP 10% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 65% LPC 19% NDP 10% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 65% LPC 20% NDP 11% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 65% LPC 20% NDP 11% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 65% LPC 20% NDP 11% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 65% LPC 20% NDP 11% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 66% LPC 19% NDP 10% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 66% LPC 19% NDP 10% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 66% LPC 19% NDP 10% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 66% LPC 19% NDP 10% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 65% LPC 19% NDP 11% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 65% LPC 19% NDP 11% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 65% LPC 20% NDP 11% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 64% LPC 20% NDP 11% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 65% LPC 20% NDP 11% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 65% LPC 20% NDP 11% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 64% LPC 20% NDP 11% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 64% LPC 20% NDP 11% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 64% LPC 20% NDP 11% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 64% LPC 20% NDP 11% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 64% LPC 21% NDP 10% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 72% LPC 17% NDP 8% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 72% LPC 17% NDP 8% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 72% LPC 17% NDP 8% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 72% LPC 17% NDP 8% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 72% LPC 17% NDP 8% 2025-06-01 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-06-01 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader