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Canada


Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier (federal)


MP: Joël Godin (CPC)


Latest projection: April 14, 2024

CPC safe hold
Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier 64% ± 7%▲ 21% ± 5%▼ 8% ± 3% 5% ± 3% CPC 2021 51.36% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 14, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | April 14, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier

LPC 8% ± 3% CPC 64% ± 7% NDP 5% ± 3% BQ 21% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP BQ

Odds of winning | Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 44.0% 43.5% 51.36% 64% ± 7% BQ 10.7% 24.3% 23.81% 21% ± 5% LPC 21.5% 19.9% 15.37% 8% ± 3% NDP 22.1% 5.8% 5.07% 5% ± 3% PPC 0.0% 3.0% 2.61% 1% ± 2% GPC 1.8% 3.6% 0.0% 1% ± 1%