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Canada

Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier



Latest projection: April 17, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier


Liberal Antonin Leroux
Conservative Joel Godin*
NDP Felix Couture
Green Johann Queffelec
Bloc Quebecois Christian Hebert
PPC Simon Frenette

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier 53% ± 8%▼ CPC 25% ± 6% LPC 16% ± 5%▲ BQ 3% ± 2% NDP CPC 2021 52.3% 338Canada vote projection | April 17, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% BQ Odds of winning | April 17, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier

LPC 25% ± 6% CPC 53% ± 8% NDP 3% ± 2% BQ 16% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP BQ April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 55% BQ 22% LPC 13% NDP 4% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 54% BQ 21% LPC 14% NDP 4% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 54% BQ 21% LPC 15% NDP 4% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 54% BQ 21% LPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 54% BQ 21% LPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 54% BQ 21% LPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 53% BQ 21% LPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 53% BQ 21% LPC 16% NDP 4% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 52% BQ 21% LPC 18% NDP 4% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 52% BQ 21% LPC 18% NDP 4% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 52% BQ 20% LPC 18% NDP 3% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 53% BQ 20% LPC 18% NDP 3% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 53% BQ 19% LPC 19% NDP 3% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 54% BQ 19% LPC 19% NDP 3% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 54% LPC 19% BQ 19% NDP 3% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 55% LPC 20% BQ 17% NDP 3% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 56% LPC 20% BQ 17% NDP 3% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 55% LPC 20% BQ 17% NDP 3% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 56% LPC 20% BQ 17% NDP 3% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 55% LPC 21% BQ 17% NDP 3% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 57% LPC 20% BQ 16% NDP 3% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 57% LPC 20% BQ 16% NDP 3% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 57% LPC 20% BQ 16% NDP 3% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 58% LPC 20% BQ 16% NDP 3% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 59% LPC 20% BQ 15% NDP 3% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 59% LPC 20% BQ 15% NDP 3% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 59% LPC 19% BQ 15% NDP 3% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 60% LPC 19% BQ 15% NDP 3% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 60% LPC 19% BQ 14% NDP 3% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 59% LPC 20% BQ 14% NDP 3% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 55% LPC 25% BQ 14% NDP 3% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 53% LPC 25% BQ 16% NDP 3% 2025-04-17 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 44.4% 52.3% 53% ± 8% LPC 19.5% 15.1% 25% ± 6% BQ 24.1% 23.7% 16% ± 5% NDP 5.6% 4.7% 3% ± 2% GPC 3.4% 0.0% 2% ± 2% PPC 2.9% 2.4% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.